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TSMC ups Arizona investment from $12B to $40B with second semi fab

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Re: TSMC ups Arizona investment from $12B to $40B with second semi fab

#181

Post by gct »

atlasunshrugged wrote: post #153
samcheng wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The cheapest energy is from a hydroelectric plant built generations ago. Fun fact: That's why Boeing first built their planes outside Seattle - the electricity needed to refine the aluminum was cheap. These days, you can see that effect in the large datacenters that have sprung up near the Columbia River in Oregon. I'd guess TSMC's siting decision had a lot to do with tax breaks, labor pool, and cheap land.

Probably also hedging for geopolitical risk? Not sure how only having facilities in a country at least somewhat likely to be invaded in the next few years affects the stock price but it probably doesn't hurt to put one in the middle of a country very unlikely to be invaded and very likely to want to purchase chips built domestically.

Fun fact most experts consider the US uninvadable: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Invasion_of_the_United_States#...

Re: TSMC ups Arizona investment from $12B to $40B with second semi fab

#182

Post by adam_arthur »

mikeyouse wrote: post #136
adam_arthur wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For water. Its proven we can build many thousand miles of pipeline for 10s of billions. Which is vastly cheap enough and sufficient to solve this problem. Much cheaper than alternatives

I love how arm chair engineers have solved the water crises in the south by suggesting people "just build pipelines!". Just the lack of understanding of like 15 different aspects of the problem with that idea and the confidence to defend regardless is kind of amazing.

You're right, piping water from point A to B is perhaps one of humanity's most challenging problems.

What's really sad is that so many people are brainless enough to believe that this is not possible to solve, and easily so, once incentives drive it forward.

Your comment does remind me of many of the 0.1-0.5x engineers I've worked with though. We need hundreds of people to maintain a mobile client, it's not possible to do it with a handful!

Re: TSMC ups Arizona investment from $12B to $40B with second semi fab

#183

Post by fundad »

conradev wrote: post #73
adam_arthur wrote: post #63

Onshoring is a logical result of improved automation. When labor costs lessen, transportation and logistics become the primary concern. Wouldn’t be surprised if 100 years from now most final good assembly is done locally. Of course sometimes raw materials and inputs are more expensive to transport than the finished good, so there will always be cases where long distance transportation of finished products is still pr…

Onshoring in this case is a logical result of improved tax incentives. Almost every cost is higher in the US – not just labor. Improved automation does reduce costs, but those cost reductions are even better in places where manufacturing is already cheap. Semiconductors have a very high value to weight ratio, so shipping them globally makes more sense than it does for other items.

"Tax incentives" like writing off Capex have been there for the taking. So yes, the improved tax incentives with bipartisan support translates to stability for investors.

Re: TSMC ups Arizona investment from $12B to $40B with second semi fab

#184

Post by Mistletoe »

bcrosby95 wrote: post #132
Mistletoe wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Should people live in an area with no water? It feels like we have so many problems caused by people just not living in the locations in the USA where there is lots of rainfall and water. I have tons of water, my state just uses lakes filled by rainwater. We make electricity with it too. https://commons.m.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Average_precipitat... I always find it interesting that people keep cramming into the wes…

Should people live in an area that needs to burn fossil fuels for heating? Energy efficient heat pumps, which AC is, only work on a relatively narrow band of temperature differentials. You can't really use them in freezing conditions. There's lots of hand wringing about living in hot, dry climates. It's just odd to me because where people live, in general, are not particularly amenable to the number of humans living…

Cold can be mitigated by enhanced R-value insulation in a single application. Water use is continuous.

https://www.energystar.gov/campaign/seal_insulate/identify_p...

I don't really see a hot/cold stratification in this chart- https://www.statista.com/chart/12098/the-us-states-with-the-...

And even then, the difference in costs seems quite small. Alaska is $332 and Georgia is $310.

Re: TSMC ups Arizona investment from $12B to $40B with second semi fab

#185

Post by lifeisstillgood »

richardwhiuk wrote: post #130
adam_arthur wrote: post #63

Onshoring is a logical result of improved automation. When labor costs lessen, transportation and logistics become the primary concern. Wouldn’t be surprised if 100 years from now most final good assembly is done locally. Of course sometimes raw materials and inputs are more expensive to transport than the finished good, so there will always be cases where long distance transportation of finished products is still pr…

This isn't onshoring - onshoring would be moving to Taiwan - this is the Taiwanese Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation.

This is onshoring - to the shores of a country whose national sporting league called The World Series.

There is a distinctly USA centric view of the world :/)

Re: TSMC ups Arizona investment from $12B to $40B with second semi fab

#186

Post by downrightmike »

_8j50 wrote: post #45

Don't these fabs need like an insane amount of water? Why would they build it of all places in arizona which as far as I know barely meets drinking water requirements (at least at some cities) and is basically mostly a desert?

These plants will be 100% recycling on water and Phoenix gives a lot of water to Tucson to store that they could pull back as needed. Central Arizona Project is a good read.

Re: TSMC ups Arizona investment from $12B to $40B with second semi fab

#187

Post by downrightmike »

tony_cannistra wrote: post #50
_8j50 wrote: post #45

Don't these fabs need like an insane amount of water? Why would they build it of all places in arizona which as far as I know barely meets drinking water requirements (at least at some cities) and is basically mostly a desert?

I came here for this comment. Thank you for bringing this up. Although Phoenix is one of America's most progressive cities with regard to minimizing per-capita water usage, the whole prospect of the city of Phoenix was ill-conceived from the beginning. Of course that doesn't matter now -- the city is there. But I hope that TSMC knows what they're getting themselves in to.

These plants will be 100% recycling on water and Phoenix gives a lot of water to Tucson to store that they could pull back as needed. Central Arizona Project is a good read. reply

Re: TSMC ups Arizona investment from $12B to $40B with second semi fab

#188

Post by tester756 »

adam_arthur wrote: post #63

Onshoring is a logical result of improved automation. When labor costs lessen, transportation and logistics become the primary concern. Wouldn’t be surprised if 100 years from now most final good assembly is done locally. Of course sometimes raw materials and inputs are more expensive to transport than the finished good, so there will always be cases where long distance transportation of finished products is still pr…

People are cheap in semico in compare to building/equipment

Re: TSMC ups Arizona investment from $12B to $40B with second semi fab

#189

Post by scythe »

Mistletoe wrote: post #89
coredog64 wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Farmers are selling their farmland to developers who then turn it into housing. Everyone wins: Residential water use is significantly lower than agricultural, the farmers get rich, and more housing is being built.

Should people live in an area with no water? It feels like we have so many problems caused by people just not living in the locations in the USA where there is lots of rainfall and water. I have tons of water, my state just uses lakes filled by rainwater. We make electricity with it too. https://commons.m.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Average_precipitat... I always find it interesting that people keep cramming into the wes…

If you live on a 20' by 50' plot that gets six inches of rain per year, that's 500 cubic feet, or enough water for ten people to drink all year. And that's low rainfall even by Arizona standards (Phoenix gets 7 inches while Tucson and the plateaus are wetter), a small plot of land (1/43 acre), and ignoring any reuse or importation. The Southwest has plenty of water for people to live their lives, as long as it's utilized efficiently. It's agriculture that isn't suitable.

It's also worth recognizing that the western United States was settled first, as people came down the Pacific Coast after crossing the Beringia land bridge during the previous ice age. California in particular has always been quite densely populated, and the only (IIRC) indigenous irrigation systems were built by the Hohokam near the Colorado Plateau.

EDIT: https://repository.si.edu/bitstream/handle/10088/23978/SMC_8...

>The population [of California] cannot be tabulated by tribes, but there can be no question that it was several times larger than any other area north of Mexico and that the destruction has been correspondingly greater.

Re: TSMC ups Arizona investment from $12B to $40B with second semi fab

#190

Post by antonjs »

samcheng wrote: post #109
thehappypm wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn’t solar the cheapest energy per KwH? A sunny place like Arizona with tons of empty space should be able to cheaply deploy lots of energy.

The cheapest energy is from a hydroelectric plant built generations ago. Fun fact: That's why Boeing first built their planes outside Seattle - the electricity needed to refine the aluminum was cheap. These days, you can see that effect in the large datacenters that have sprung up near the Columbia River in Oregon. I'd guess TSMC's siting decision had a lot to do with tax breaks, labor pool, and cheap land.

Cheap, seismically stable, land.
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