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TSMC ups Arizona investment from $12B to $40B with second semi fab

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Re: TSMC ups Arizona investment from $12B to $40B with second semi fab

#171
post #158

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Arizona has the reputation of being a desert, but in reality it is a state that is half-desert and half-mountain, and has a tons of water. Enough to waste on ubiquitous golf courses and alfalfa farms. There is a canal system taking the water from the mountains to the drier south where people live. But the population pressures are realigning who pays what for the water now, so I expect the alfalfa farms are going to g…

The thing you don't mention is that Arizona is wasting other people's water -- nearly 40% is sourced from rivers originating in other mountainous states https://www.arizonawaterfacts.com/water-your-facts

I don't mention it because it's not true. The idea that if a river originates in one state, then that state owns all the water from the river is not how ownership of river water works. And in America, rivers often form the border of states, so there are always competing claims about which state gets which percentage of the river. These are generally settled through treaties and agreements among states, and those agreements were made also for the Colorado river. Arizona is only taking its share of the water as per the treaty, not someone else's share.

Re: TSMC ups Arizona investment from $12B to $40B with second semi fab

#172
post #158

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Arizona has the reputation of being a desert, but in reality it is a state that is half-desert and half-mountain, and has a tons of water. Enough to waste on ubiquitous golf courses and alfalfa farms. There is a canal system taking the water from the mountains to the drier south where people live. But the population pressures are realigning who pays what for the water now, so I expect the alfalfa farms are going to g…

The thing you don't mention is that Arizona is wasting other people's water -- nearly 40% is sourced from rivers originating in other mountainous states https://www.arizonawaterfacts.com/water-your-facts

Do you mean the Colorado River? The one that flows through the Grand Canyon? The canyon in Arizona?

Re: TSMC ups Arizona investment from $12B to $40B with second semi fab

#173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It would be cheaper to just desalinate it. Of course Arizona doesn't really have that option. But California does, and Arizona already sources water from the Colorado River, which California does too. Anyways. I think moving California off the Colorado River would do a lot to ease the water problems in the southwest.

California has had trouble kick starting desalination. It is an energy intensive process, and the California electricity grid (especially in water poor SoCal) is still heavily dependent on fossil fuels (even some coal plants in other states feed into the LA metro). Furthermore, desalination intakes can negatively impact marine life, unless subsurface wells are used. Those are more expensive and companies pursuing des…

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Re: TSMC ups Arizona investment from $12B to $40B with second semi fab

#174

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oil pipelines have already proven the economic viability. The choice of abandoning trillions of real estate vs a 10s of billions infrastructure project is obvious. Article cites the cost as $14B which is effectively nothing vs the alternative. Even $100B is nothing. These two TSMC fabs are $40B alone So much fearmongering from economically illiterate people. Use your brain

I hate to break it to you, but your "economically illiterate people" might actually understand some fundamental social and political realities that you've not yet had the chance to reckon with. Not to mention the physical realities of water resources. Your comparison to oil pipelines is nonsense. Where to start: privatization, a global commodity market, relative scarcity, massive extractive capex.... Sure, we built o…

water problems are actually energy problems. With cheap energy, you can clean all water from residential areas and you can pipe water in from where it is plentiful.

Water is not usually created/destroyed it is moved around and contaminated.

Re: TSMC ups Arizona investment from $12B to $40B with second semi fab

#175
post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Now please explain why would the US send troops to defend TW if there's nothing actually valuable there anymore? Ukraine was hugely important for it's position next to Russia, and so is TW. And still, no US troops on the ground in Ukraine, and there won't be any in TW. This is a smart way of giving up on TW without actually admitting it, and there's nothing to be ashamed of, really.

The US isn’t giving up Taiwan- it’s the perfect opportunity to humiliate the CCP. China is in way over their heads if they actually believe they can achieve a naval landing on a fortified island without air superiority. It would be an absolute massacre. Additionally, the US could simply embargo Chinese supply lines and dare them to engage.

I volunteer you to go fight in Taiwan to "humiliate the CCP".

Re: TSMC ups Arizona investment from $12B to $40B with second semi fab

#176
post #2

It’s good news geopolitically, and the construction will produce a lot of jobs. But people should temper long-term job expectations. This huge of an investment in a tech where TSMC will face competition from fabs in lower-cost countries almost certainly means the company believes it can use extensive automation to avoid having labor costs sink their ability to compete on price. (Yes, there may be a window where they…

> This huge of an investment in a tech where TSMC will face competition from fabs in lower-cost countries almost certainly means the company believes it can use extensive automation to avoid having labor costs sink their ability to compete on price. What countries are you imagining that will suddenly become competitive in semiconductor manufacturing? As far as I know there are no up and coming companies of note. (Com…

"Permanently prevented" -- semi manufacturing is an engineering problem, not magic. Engineering problems can be solved, unless you think Chinese people are inherently inferior engineers.

Re: TSMC ups Arizona investment from $12B to $40B with second semi fab

#177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why would we practice conservation when we can spend $30-50B in capex amortized over 50 years via marginally higher taxes on the populace with minimal opex to solve the problem permanently? Thats why they are economically illiterate. The obvious and more cost effective choice will win in the end, and it doesn’t involve austerity and suffering and repentance for high water use

Because it wouldn't solve the problem permanently. The folks who wrote the Colorado River Compact thought they were solving the problem of dividing the river's water permanently, too. They made it worse. I don't disagree that economics are a critical part of this conversation. But I don't understand how you're making the argument that enabling more water use, not less, is cost effective. Even amortized across 50 year…

I don't think you appreciate just how much water the northern part of the continent has.

Re: TSMC ups Arizona investment from $12B to $40B with second semi fab

#178

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This seems wrong. Didn't TSMC have to throttle down production recently because Taiwan had a drought? Why would they have had to do that if the plants don't need new water after the "initial fill"?

Apparently they've figured it out: TSMC tackles Taiwan drought with plant to reuse water for chips https://archive.ph/XIff9

Yes, exactly. In places like Taiwan TSMC just didn't need to account for recycling/treating the water - I'm sure it's cheaper not to do so. In Arizona it's a requirement so it's built into the cost of investment.

Re: TSMC ups Arizona investment from $12B to $40B with second semi fab

#179

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The 550 MW "nameplate capacity" is peak. The capacity factor of 26.6% means that it actually only produces about 146 MW on average. Nuclear power plants generally have a capacity factor above 90%.

146 MW on average is still more than this facility needs.

Not during the night and not when it is cloudy. Averages are vey bad numbers for something which is on 24/7.

Re: TSMC ups Arizona investment from $12B to $40B with second semi fab

#180
post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US has no such fear about Taiwan. Taiwan has a fear that they will be invaded by China if they do not have industry that is too important to China to be interrupted by war.

Are you saying China is more likely to invade Taiwan if the destruction of TSMC’s Taiwanese fabs could be mitigated by buying the same products from TSMC’s US-based fabs?

I phrased that wrong. I meant that they want to be important to the world in general (and the US), not specifically China.
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