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TSMC ups Arizona investment from $12B to $40B with second semi fab

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Re: TSMC ups Arizona investment from $12B to $40B with second semi fab

#81

Post by dotnet00 »

Animatronio wrote: post #72
boc wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or conversely the US will commit even more resources to the defense of Taiwan now that their own domestic supply of chips is safe. The US had no strategic interest in Ukraine yet we’ve all seen the reaction. The US will gladly defend Taiwan and create the hill for the CCP to die upon.

Now please explain why would the US send troops to defend TW if there's nothing actually valuable there anymore? Ukraine was hugely important for it's position next to Russia, and so is TW. And still, no US troops on the ground in Ukraine, and there won't be any in TW. This is a smart way of giving up on TW without actually admitting it, and there's nothing to be ashamed of, really.

They might do it because of the value in denying China access to Taiwan. Even assuming that Taiwan blows their semiconductor fabs to prevent China from getting them, there's still all the know-how and all the other stuff that the US wouldn't want China potentially getting its hands on, like American weapons. There would also be the consideration of the risk to Japan (and other friendly nations in the region) created by allowing China to just take Taiwan without at least Ukraine levels of backlash.

Re: TSMC ups Arizona investment from $12B to $40B with second semi fab

#82

Post by googlryas »

kibwen wrote: post #19
ianai wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US has rare earth mines and even more deposits. They just got priced out through decades of lower prices for those minerals. (Which just shows that resource allocation even for scarce resources, follows financial incentives similar to other financial considerations. Stuff being left in the ground actually makes them available for another day when they’re higher valued.)

Indeed, but rare earth mining also has negative environmental impact even above and beyond normal mining operations. The US is partly paying China to outsource the environmental devastation.

China demanded it even, by basically cornering the rare earth market via dumping

Re: TSMC ups Arizona investment from $12B to $40B with second semi fab

#83

Post by fooker »

icey wrote: post #46
jason-phillips wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I wonder how domestic the full supply chain is. The supply chain necessarily includes some Japanese and Dutch companies for their specialized tooling that cannot be sourced from American companies. Many of the spare parts and raw materials can be sourced domestically. However, it is ultimately unavoidable that many of the constituents within these spare parts, repair kits and raw materials would be manufactured/syn…

For at least part of this, ASML has had a large facility in the Phoenix metro (Tempe) for quite a few years. Assuming that's one of the Dutch companies you're referring to. TSMC is going to benefit from the microchip industry that's already in Phoenix thanks to Intel's enormous presence here.

What are some of the companies in the microchip industry in/around Phoenix?

Re: TSMC ups Arizona investment from $12B to $40B with second semi fab

#84

Post by susrev »

nicoburns wrote: post #51
Varloom wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The article is wrote for tech illiterate audience. They will use EUV for the first factory (2024). And High-NA EUV (next gen from ASML) for the second factory in 2026. 4nm,3nm are just marketing terms, and means nothing, since they stopped naming nodes according to their actual size since 16nm.

I don't think a tech illiterate audience has a clue with 4nm or 3nm mean

i dunno, they can google it pretty easily

Re: TSMC ups Arizona investment from $12B to $40B with second semi fab

#85

Post by rdevsrex »

conradev wrote: post #73
adam_arthur wrote: post #63

Onshoring is a logical result of improved automation. When labor costs lessen, transportation and logistics become the primary concern. Wouldn’t be surprised if 100 years from now most final good assembly is done locally. Of course sometimes raw materials and inputs are more expensive to transport than the finished good, so there will always be cases where long distance transportation of finished products is still pr…

Onshoring in this case is a logical result of improved tax incentives. Almost every cost is higher in the US – not just labor. Improved automation does reduce costs, but those cost reductions are even better in places where manufacturing is already cheap. Semiconductors have a very high value to weight ratio, so shipping them globally makes more sense than it does for other items.

Which is driven by concerns over the safety of Taiwan's fabs.

Re: TSMC ups Arizona investment from $12B to $40B with second semi fab

#86

Post by thereddaikon »

conradev wrote: post #73
adam_arthur wrote: post #63

Onshoring is a logical result of improved automation. When labor costs lessen, transportation and logistics become the primary concern. Wouldn’t be surprised if 100 years from now most final good assembly is done locally. Of course sometimes raw materials and inputs are more expensive to transport than the finished good, so there will always be cases where long distance transportation of finished products is still pr…

Onshoring in this case is a logical result of improved tax incentives. Almost every cost is higher in the US – not just labor. Improved automation does reduce costs, but those cost reductions are even better in places where manufacturing is already cheap. Semiconductors have a very high value to weight ratio, so shipping them globally makes more sense than it does for other items.

The highest costs in Semiconductor fabrication are the specialized machines needed. Most of them are at best dual sourced. Many are single sourced. The fact a technician in the US can make $100k when their counterpart in China would make $50k doesn't matter when the EUV Lithography machine is hundreds of millions of dollars.

Re: TSMC ups Arizona investment from $12B to $40B with second semi fab

#87

Post by tony_cannistra »

adam_arthur wrote: post #79
tony_cannistra wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Arizona actually already does this, in profound quantities. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_Arizona_Project The problem isn't the pipes, obviously. It's the fact that the 1922 agreement that divided up the water in the Colorado River (upon which Arizona depends) incorrectly calculated the amount of water available in the river every year. The Colorado River Compact divides up 20 million acre-feet of water. Mode…

And the Colorado River is the only water source in North America right? People have a fetishization with hyping up disappearing water sources as leading to mass forced desertions of population centers, which is not rooted in any kind of reality. We can already pipe oil from texas to Canada with ease, we can do the same from Canada to Arizona with water. Or wherever else. The economics and viability of it is obvious a…

> People have a fetishization with hyping up disappearing water sources as leading to mass forced desertions of population centers, which is not rooted in any kind of reality.

I have never heard this. Where are you reading that?

Disappearing water sources are a reality. Time and time again, long pipelines like what you suggest just aren't viable.

I'd suggest you enjoy some fact-based reporting on the topic: https://grist.org/agriculture/drought-water-pipeline-cost-we...

The near- and medium-term solutions we need are solely in use reduction. Period.

Re: TSMC ups Arizona investment from $12B to $40B with second semi fab

#88

Post by king_magic »

_8j50 wrote: post #45

Don't these fabs need like an insane amount of water? Why would they build it of all places in arizona which as far as I know barely meets drinking water requirements (at least at some cities) and is basically mostly a desert?

Access to plentiful, cheap water was a major reason why Micron chose Upstate NY for their new fabs.

Re: TSMC ups Arizona investment from $12B to $40B with second semi fab

#89

Post by Mistletoe »

coredog64 wrote: post #74
tony_cannistra wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thanks for sharing that. At the very least, Arizona has "water budget" in the form of severely curtailing water-intensive agriculture. I am hopeful that the politicians there are smart enough to realize that semiconductor fabs are an industry whose water needs are worth prioritizing more than farming alfalfa in the desert. The problem is that these agricultural water rights are old, and the folks who hold them are of…

Farmers are selling their farmland to developers who then turn it into housing. Everyone wins: Residential water use is significantly lower than agricultural, the farmers get rich, and more housing is being built.

Should people live in an area with no water?

It feels like we have so many problems caused by people just not living in the locations in the USA where there is lots of rainfall and water. I have tons of water, my state just uses lakes filled by rainwater. We make electricity with it too.

https://commons.m.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Average_precipitat...

I always find it interesting that people keep cramming into the western and specifically southwestern part of the USA. Like the original settlers just kept going that way due to the human natural urge to keep going further and hope things would be better over the horizon. I often wonder what America would be like if the western US was settled first. I imagine people would have noticed how awful and non-conducive to human life it is and kept on trucking to the promised land in the East.

Re: TSMC ups Arizona investment from $12B to $40B with second semi fab

#90

Post by fintechjock »

starkd wrote: post #48
FpUser wrote: post #12

I guess this is TSMCs getaway if things will get sour with China.

I think it makes it more likely that China is going to swallow up Taiwan without even firing a shot. Wargame simulations are giving a dim prospect for defending the island. US has removed fighter jets from Japan. And public opinion in Taiwan for resisting China has slightly shifted toward accomadation. I hope I am wrong.

> US has removed fighter jets from Japan.

They’re phasing out older variants of the F-15 C. They will be replaced by F-15 EXs when they are ready, and until then the old F-15s will be replaced with F-22s

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