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Remote work is gutting downtowns

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Re: Remote work is gutting downtowns

#131
post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I see a LOT of people moving to NYC for this reason. Not Midtown or the Financial District, mind you - the UES, UWS, Williamsburg, etc. I did it. I don't commute but am so much happier here than with more space in suburbia.

Same perspective here. Even as a rural-boy-turned-inveterate-urbanite, I'm happy that people who don't want to live in the city are decreasingly forced to live in the city due to their jobs. There are plenty of people out there like me who were looking to escape to the city but who were stymied by all the people living in the city who wanted to escape to the country. I just prefer density and walkability/bikeability.

I think the more people are living where they want to and not where they're forced to the happier people will be in general.

Especially as the "city" fills up with "city people" they hopefully will stop voting so strongly against "city".

Re: Remote work is gutting downtowns

#132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I used to get the bus to work about 10 years ago because parking in the city became so expensive (I stopped long before Covid hit). The thing I don't miss is that I got sick every single Winter. All it takes is one inconsiderate person to not cover their mouth and everyone is getting ill. And it happened all the time . I had a commute time that ranged between one and two hours over that stretch as I'd lived in a coup…

> The thing I don't miss is that I got sick every single Winter. Everybody is always entitled to their values and preferences of course, but it's really hard to see how a chance of getting sick once a year is a worse outcome than a guarantee of missing out on normal society permanently, particularly when you can do everything about as perfectly as you possibly can and still get sick.

It's similar for me and I still get exposed to people in the non-work part of my life, quite a lot actually, I just don't get two crammed train cars full of people twice a day anymore. I'm not as healthy as during quarantine, but I'm mildly sick-ish right now and I used to get knocked out for a week or so around this time before wfh almost every year and be a lot sicker otherwise, so whatever I'm being exposed to right now my immune system seems to be able to handle. I had a few infections in spring and summer when everyone here finally came out of quarantine, so I guess the post-isolation shock is already behind me.

Besides, if "normal society" means miserable unpaid commutes and cold offices with bad cafeteria food and a lot less time and energy for the things in life that really matter, then I'm quite happy to miss out on that. I'm not living in some kind of self-imposed total isolation, if anything I'm more active outside work these days, and my whole life feels a lot healthier (and that sure helps too)

Re: Remote work is gutting downtowns

#133
post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Walk me through that thinking? Downtown residents walk and use transit. Places with broader distribution of people typically rely on roads because transit isn’t economically efficient. My intuition is that higher population densities are more environmentally efficient because more people can be served by any resource. Are you thinking otherwise?

I guess you might be right. It is just me noticing my own behavior patterns and extending it to the greater populace which is not correct. I had a pleasure to live in village, small city and big city. I feel I use much more resources in bigger city. Distance to the mall is similar, but all the free-time activities in the city consume energy. While in the village I mostly just walked the forest and worked on the garde…

Sprawling suburbia is not small towns and villages. I could see medium-sized towns being the happy middle ground for density vs costs vs desirability. But the typical American suburb is a blight on the planet.

Re: Remote work is gutting downtowns

#134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've had funny conversations about why I still wear a good n95 on public transit (planes included). My right-leaning and remarkably well educated parents are incredulous. A few years ago I thought personal masking didn't really matter. Wow, I was wrong! And not catching bs colds from weirdos on the bus or the grocery store makes it worth it. My face isn't that pretty anyway.

They might be right about the actual plane ride because the filtration systems on modern (read 20 years old or newer) are really good. Public busses tend to be a disaster for air filtration though, especially in winter when no windows are open. I wish there was some better research/more accessible research on this.

Even if the plane's filtration is good, if the person 3 feet away from you is coughing it's not going to be that good. I'd rather rely on the combination of filtration & a mask. Defense in depth.

Day to day i'm not religious about masking, but for things like public transportation, airplanes, etc I try to always have face protection on.

Re: Remote work is gutting downtowns

#135
post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nah, its just what happens when you have a kid. I was exposed all the time commuting to work on public transit. Once my kid got into preschool I was sick for months at a time.

It's hard to explain the near exponential increase in pathogen exposure when 20+ kids are in a room doing the least hygienic things imaginable for 4-8 hours a day. I rode the subway every day for years and rarely got sick, but a few weeks of a kid in daycare and it was all coming at me at once.

The running joke among my doctor friends is that pediatricians are immune to disease. Sick like a dog for the first couple years but then they become bullet proof.

Re: Remote work is gutting downtowns

#136
post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Large office towers just do not convert to residential very well. It can be done, it can be tolerated, it's just not a very good or competitive product, while also being very expensive to implement. One example, People walk a few blocks from the parking garage to their place of employment, but in most cities, people will not walk a few blocks from the parking garage to their home. Adding insult to injury, office towe…

> It can be done, it can be tolerated, it's just not a very good or competitive product I agree with everything you said, just want to highlight that this quote is the classic statement of a business opportunity. There is a VC pitch here: a company that acquired distressed office space at scale, from panicked sellers, and with the expertise to do these conversions in a systematic, cost-optimized way. Banks are going…

I work in the adaptive reuse industry converting history office buildings into hotels or apartments. We've looked at a number of modern era office towers, and housing is simply not viable. To your point though.. ironically, urban factories and warehousing seems to me to be the best use. Can you build a small electric vehicle or iPhones with the assembly line going from top to bottom?

Banks are already there for unloading these properties. I can show you million-square-foot office towers today that are essentially free to acquire, but you get to pay tax, insurance, maintenance, keeping the lights on and functioning for any future use, a few million a year minimum, with no revenue.

Some groups thought they could mine bitcoin, but the floor fell out of that. At the end of the day, since there are substantial costs involved with the tower itself relative to a warehouse, the tower should used for something that also requires a large number of people. A datacenter-type use is best if located near cheap electricity - not usually city centers.

Lastly, office towers are usually located amongst excellent mass transit, even in cities with poor transit options, but the typical office tenant (bankers, lawyers, financiers) will not accept mass transit as an alternative to 1 parking space per employee. But factory workers will if it works!

Re: Remote work is gutting downtowns

#137

These seeds were sowed when cities cashed in on commercial real estate, pushing residential zoning further and further out of the city. Wake up call: nobody wants to spend longer than they have to on an unpaid, unpredictable commute into the city anymore. So while these downtown businesses are getting 1/3 of the foot traffic that they used to, all the supermarkets and shops a few miles down the road are raking it in.

I used to get the bus to work about 10 years ago because parking in the city became so expensive (I stopped long before Covid hit). The thing I don't miss is that I got sick every single Winter. All it takes is one inconsiderate person to not cover their mouth and everyone is getting ill. And it happened all the time . I had a commute time that ranged between one and two hours over that stretch as I'd lived in a coup…

> All it takes is one inconsiderate person to not cover their mouth and everyone is getting ill. And it happened all the time.

It's really depressing that even with the pandemic, the ratio of people covering their mouth didn't seem to have increased at all.

Re: Remote work is gutting downtowns

#138

HBO Max has a documentary about the Automat, which was once America's largest chain restaurant. You could put in coins and receive food from small automated doors and spigots at the Automat. Its downfall came with expansion of the suburbs, as there were fewer people remaining in the city center after work. The present crisis of city centers seems similar. I'm not sure if the relevance of city centers has basically be…

I'd argue they're becoming more relevant, just less business-centric. A lot of people still like living near other people with easy access to goods, services, entertainment, etc without needing the excess of a large lawn and the isolation that comes with it. (The crowd on HN may be skewed towards the latter, but it doesn't make it wrong)

Being able to walk to pick your kids up from school, stop at a coffee shop on the way home, not have to worry about car seats, or waiting in an idling car for 30 minutes for your place in line, it can be a very nice life.

Re: Remote work is gutting downtowns

#139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I used to get the bus to work about 10 years ago because parking in the city became so expensive (I stopped long before Covid hit). The thing I don't miss is that I got sick every single Winter. All it takes is one inconsiderate person to not cover their mouth and everyone is getting ill. And it happened all the time . I had a commute time that ranged between one and two hours over that stretch as I'd lived in a coup…

I've had funny conversations about why I still wear a good n95 on public transit (planes included). My right-leaning and remarkably well educated parents are incredulous. A few years ago I thought personal masking didn't really matter. Wow, I was wrong! And not catching bs colds from weirdos on the bus or the grocery store makes it worth it. My face isn't that pretty anyway.

Most everyone I knew when I worked in a grocery store basically never got sick, including my dad. He’s get sick once every 4-5 years maybe. People would call in sick, but it would be to miss a day.

Working in a grocery store, especially as a cashier, can be unpleasant to disgusting at times, especially when cash was a bit more common. I think you’re around everything all the time that your immune system tends to beef up a bit.

Conversely, the kids are getting hammered in winter time the last few years after covid after not getting sick between 2020-mid 2021.

I’m not so sure that humans evolved to avoid illness, despite how unpleasant it is.

Re: Remote work is gutting downtowns

#140
post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This. And I would say the broader distribution will actually be good for the environment as whole. Or at least it could be.

Walk me through that thinking? Downtown residents walk and use transit. Places with broader distribution of people typically rely on roads because transit isn’t economically efficient. My intuition is that higher population densities are more environmentally efficient because more people can be served by any resource. Are you thinking otherwise?

This debate is usually between "city people" and "McMansion suburbanites", but allow me to offer two alternatives. They are described as utopias, but they really have been realized to varying extents in various places.

1.

One alternative is to revitalize the tons of walkable second-tier cities that are sitting there rotting, and to connect them with intercity transit.

I love NYC, but the problem with concentrating everyone there and in SF, is that it drives up real estate prices and creates a desperate crush to acquire property. Yes, you can say "YIMBY", but even if that were politically feasible, it couldn't keep up with in-migration if there were only those few choices (NY and SF). It would badly bifurcate society, between those who had managed to secure a toehold, and those who hadn't.

(In fact, it creates a culty Bitcoin-like dynamic, where those who have sunk the cost to be inducted (by buying property) are then incentivized to preach the benefits and keep the values up.)

Then, because people would be so desperate for money to live in these places, they'd waste their lives on corrosive professions like surveillance advertising, instead of doing work that actually helps people. That may sound familiar.

And, most importantly, geographic concentration would, arguably, go hand-in-hand with economic concentration -- with the formation of economic "chokepoints" and the concentration of monopoly power.

2.

Even the medium-urbanist decentralization of (1) would however leave people dependent on monopolies for the provision of basic ecological services.

What good is it to concentrate in cities, if all food is produced by one or two huge agricultural conglomerates? This is a condition of total dependence.

As an alternative to urbanism, Permaculture-type people do have interesting ideas. But they require land. Their methods also -- let's be honest -- come with a dramatic reduction in what we call "living standards". But if "degrowth" can come from an increase in autonomy, then that might be a trade worth making. It's one I think young people would consider.

We would probably see some amount of homophily among people, if they reorganized along these lines. There are many incompatible tribes:

- The Colorado ski-bro kombucha-chick tribe.

- Various Black Israelite and Egyption-religion back-to-Africa tribes.

- The Kanye West cult of vaguely Trump-sympathetic heterodox permie stuff.

- Indigenous revival movements. They're likely to have different language but similar interest in the environment.

- Various trad-religious tribes, like the Mennonites and Amish, but you could totally see Benedict Option Catholics or even Evangelicals going this way. Again, they'd just talk a little differently.

They wouldn't combine as a single "diverse" community, but you could see any and all of them borrowing permie ideas from one another.

In the past I have spoken in favor of universalist ideologies (I like that they help me to get along with more people), but they might be at odds with this kind of pluralism. That would need to be worked out.

3.

A natural answer is to say that there can be "gains from trade", and that not everyone needs to live in the same way. That there can be both cities and rural areas. But,

a. I am doubtful of permaculture's ability to create the kind of surplus needed to sustain urban populations, and

b. we would have to be very careful with the introduction of too much financial intermediation, lest we simply recreate the conditions we now have today.

I'm not sure what the punchline here is, except --

- that issues of political economy need to be factored in here, because they ultimately determine how nature's resources are distributed;

- that power is best when not concentrated; and

- that I'm looking for ways beyond the dichotomies implied by these posts ("dense" vs. "not dense").

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