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TSMC ups Arizona investment from $12B to $40B with second semi fab

cnbc.com

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Re: TSMC ups Arizona investment from $12B to $40B with second semi fab

#61

Post by boc »

Animatronio wrote: post #36
brookst wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even if it were bad for Taiwan, geopolitics is about more than Taiwan. But I’m not sure this is bad for Taiwan: today, China can wipe out TSMC overnight. With these fabs there will be Taiwanese revenue streams coming from mainland US, which streams can support Taiwan government and military. Walk me through why it’s bad for Taiwan to be more economically diversified?

Well for one the US won't be so inclined to defend TW so much. Sure, there will be posturing, maybe even a proxy war like in Ukraine, but generally speaking the US will not be sending troops anymore, now that the golden goose has nested on its shores.

Or conversely the US will commit even more resources to the defense of Taiwan now that their own domestic supply of chips is safe.

The US had no strategic interest in Ukraine yet we’ve all seen the reaction. The US will gladly defend Taiwan and create the hill for the CCP to die upon.

Re: TSMC ups Arizona investment from $12B to $40B with second semi fab

#63

Post by adam_arthur »

Onshoring is a logical result of improved automation.

When labor costs lessen, transportation and logistics become the primary concern. Wouldn’t be surprised if 100 years from now most final good assembly is done locally.

Of course sometimes raw materials and inputs are more expensive to transport than the finished good, so there will always be cases where long distance transportation of finished products is still preferred

Re: TSMC ups Arizona investment from $12B to $40B with second semi fab

#64

Post by FpUser »

starkd wrote: post #48
FpUser wrote: post #12

I guess this is TSMCs getaway if things will get sour with China.

I think it makes it more likely that China is going to swallow up Taiwan without even firing a shot. Wargame simulations are giving a dim prospect for defending the island. US has removed fighter jets from Japan. And public opinion in Taiwan for resisting China has slightly shifted toward accomadation. I hope I am wrong.

>"I think it makes it more likely that China is going to swallow up Taiwan without even firing a shot."

I am not sure about "without even firing a shot" part but golden parachute type people and important staff will most likely be relocated to the US right before that and the rest of Taiwanese will have to suck it up. Yes very sad story and I hope it does not happen.

Re: TSMC ups Arizona investment from $12B to $40B with second semi fab

#65

Post by gdilla »

shagie wrote: post #58
tony_cannistra wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I came here for this comment. Thank you for bringing this up. Although Phoenix is one of America's most progressive cities with regard to minimizing per-capita water usage, the whole prospect of the city of Phoenix was ill-conceived from the beginning. Of course that doesn't matter now -- the city is there. But I hope that TSMC knows what they're getting themselves in to.

An article from August 2021: Water shortages loom over future semiconductor fabs in Arizona https://www.theverge.com/22628925/water-semiconductor-shorta... > Chipmakers are setting up shop in Arizona as drought worsens > Major semiconductor manufacturers looking to expand in Arizona will likely be spared from water cuts induced by an unprecedented water shortage in the Southwest, at least for now. As part of the scra…

I was also wondering about the added energy needed to keep the fab cool enough to work in during the punishing summer months in phoenix. Seems like an odd choice.

Re: TSMC ups Arizona investment from $12B to $40B with second semi fab

#66

Post by tony_cannistra »

shagie wrote: post #58
tony_cannistra wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I came here for this comment. Thank you for bringing this up. Although Phoenix is one of America's most progressive cities with regard to minimizing per-capita water usage, the whole prospect of the city of Phoenix was ill-conceived from the beginning. Of course that doesn't matter now -- the city is there. But I hope that TSMC knows what they're getting themselves in to.

An article from August 2021: Water shortages loom over future semiconductor fabs in Arizona https://www.theverge.com/22628925/water-semiconductor-shorta... > Chipmakers are setting up shop in Arizona as drought worsens > Major semiconductor manufacturers looking to expand in Arizona will likely be spared from water cuts induced by an unprecedented water shortage in the Southwest, at least for now. As part of the scra…

Thanks for sharing that. At the very least, Arizona has "water budget" in the form of severely curtailing water-intensive agriculture.

I am hopeful that the politicians there are smart enough to realize that semiconductor fabs are an industry whose water needs are worth prioritizing more than farming alfalfa in the desert.

The problem is that these agricultural water rights are old, and the folks who hold them are often disenfranchised. Using a ton of water in the desert to farm is their whole livlihood; we don't just pull people's generational careers out from under them any more, like we used to. Not without a chance at an alternative.

Re: TSMC ups Arizona investment from $12B to $40B with second semi fab

#67

Post by treesknees »

_8j50 wrote: post #45

Don't these fabs need like an insane amount of water? Why would they build it of all places in arizona which as far as I know barely meets drinking water requirements (at least at some cities) and is basically mostly a desert?

They do need a lot of water, initially, but it was pointed out that it's similar to filling a swimming pool [1]. Yes you need a lot of water at first, however it's not as though all that water is just being dumped outside to evaporate. It's cleaned and recycled, and recaptured from the air within the plant.

While Arizona doesn't have an abundance of excess water, they do have pretty strict usage guidelines and rules in place from the Department of Water Resources [2]. Assuming we can trust the government's call on this (are they being objective and fair, or tilting the reports to bring in Billions of dollars of corporate revenue and jobs) then these fabs should have no problem being supplied with water or impacting others in the area.

[1] https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/04/why-intel-tsmc-are-building-...

[2] https://www.arizonawaterfacts.com/water-your-facts

Re: TSMC ups Arizona investment from $12B to $40B with second semi fab

#68

Post by conradev »

nonethewiser wrote: post #3

Well that seems significant. Article says the chips in the 2nd fabs will be better than the first. And will meet all domestic US demand. Not sure what all that includes. I wonder how domestic the full supply chain is. If the US is relying on China for rare earth metals or something.

Chips primarily require silicon, which is not a rare-earth metal (it is rather abundant), but it takes a lot of expensive equipment and energy to purify it and slice it into wafers.

TSMC currently sources their wafers from Taiwan, Japan, Singapore, Germany and others:

https://investor.tsmc.com/static/annualReports/2005/pic/E-3-...

(edit: that PDF is out of date, but the wafer supplier list largely isn't)

Re: TSMC ups Arizona investment from $12B to $40B with second semi fab

#69

Post by boc »

starkd wrote: post #48
FpUser wrote: post #12

I guess this is TSMCs getaway if things will get sour with China.

I think it makes it more likely that China is going to swallow up Taiwan without even firing a shot. Wargame simulations are giving a dim prospect for defending the island. US has removed fighter jets from Japan. And public opinion in Taiwan for resisting China has slightly shifted toward accomadation. I hope I am wrong.

If China really thinks their completely untested military can easily pull off the largest amphibious assault in history, they deserve the results. It would be an absolute bloodbath. Wargame simulations are ways for the pentagon to get more money from congress… the reality is that invasions aren’t easy to hide and never go quite as planned.

If you disagree just go read up on the wargames and predictions for a Russian invasion of Ukrainian. Most people thought they’d reach Poland in days, if not hours. And they had the second most capable military in the world, on paper.

Re: TSMC ups Arizona investment from $12B to $40B with second semi fab

#70

Post by Animatronio »

mupuff1234 wrote: post #55
Animatronio wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well for one the US won't be so inclined to defend TW so much. Sure, there will be posturing, maybe even a proxy war like in Ukraine, but generally speaking the US will not be sending troops anymore, now that the golden goose has nested on its shores.

I'm guessing Taiwan received quite a carrot in order to get their approval for the TSMC expansion.

No carrot I'm afraid :D I think this decision was 100% made by TSMC and the US. Both get what they want: - continuity of operations and safety for TSMC - locally sourced chips for the US and most importantly - much diminished importance for Taiwan, meaning they do not have to defend it with troops (which is the most important aspect of war - see Afghanistan, Vietnam, and so on).
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