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Emergency declared and curfew imposed following North Carolina power grid attack

thepilot.com

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Re: Emergency declared and curfew imposed following North Carolina power grid attack

#201
post #92

A grenade (or IED) or two thrown in coordination into a few of those local-area transformer / power distribution stations would cause state-level chaos. Where I live, these seemingly critical infrastructure outposts, are protected by nothing more than high chicken-wire fences. Cyber Squirrel is the best and longest-lived exemplification of the sensitivity and scale of this vulnerability: https://cybersquirrel1.com/ T…

Apparently "Lead time on replacement parts" is the biggest issue today with dealing with the issue in a prompt time frame. Maybe they should stock up on at least 1x set of repair parts that would take a long timeframe to replace? Ukraine has shown how important electric substation part supply chains are.

Examples:

> The supply chain for grid components is even tighter now than it was earlier this year, Robinson said. The lead time for large-scale transformers is 90 weeks on average and the lead time for distribution transformers is six to nine months, she said.

* https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insight...

> “I deal with a number of different clients on the utility side and about a year ago we started to see lead times from transformer manufacturers creep up. Before the pandemic, you could get a large transformer ordered in less than a year. Today that is rare. A relatively large manufacturer in the US was at about 38 months. That used to be 38 weeks if you were to compare,” Templeton said.

[…]

> It is still relatively easy to get a 10 MVA transformer from a supplier utilities know and are used to dealing with, but a 1000 MVA transformer might not be available from a reliable source, Templeton said.

* https://www.tdworld.com/utility-business/article/21243198/tr...

Expansion of factories:

* https://electrek.co/2022/10/12/hitachi-energy-power-transfor...

Re: Emergency declared and curfew imposed following North Carolina power grid attack

#202

A grenade (or IED) or two thrown in coordination into a few of those local-area transformer / power distribution stations would cause state-level chaos. Where I live, these seemingly critical infrastructure outposts, are protected by nothing more than high chicken-wire fences. Cyber Squirrel is the best and longest-lived exemplification of the sensitivity and scale of this vulnerability: https://cybersquirrel1.com/ T…

Thank you for the cybersquirrel link, it made my day although I'd personally like to see the addition of lightning strikes, floods, and other non human vectors of destruction. While I have nothing (for now) to directly add to transmission network down time, I can at least add another Western Australian bird story to yours . . . [1] https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-11-08/zebra-finch-makes-nes... The linked video rival…

There could be another angle to this!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zelenograd#/media/File:Zelenog...

Ahem. Just kidding, OFC...

Re: Emergency declared and curfew imposed following North Carolina power grid attack

#203
post #180

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean you have the Russians waging total war on Ukraine with much better than improvised weapons and they can only keep the power off sometimes. That sends a very clear signal to me.

Is total war one of those watered-down phrases that carries an implied “within reason” along with it? Because it doesn’t really look like Russia is putting everything they have into the war effort. Maybe everything they have, within reason.

Total war short of nuclear weapons is I believe a fair characterization of the conflict.

Re: Emergency declared and curfew imposed following North Carolina power grid attack

#204

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Quoting from the movie Contact: "Why build one, when you could build two for twice the price?" I'd assume this isn't standard procedure, but agree that it should be, considering the increasing importance of power supply to society and in the current terror-paranoia state of the world.

I've heard, but have no sources for it, that it's difficult to scale up production of large transformers. And as everyone's said, without government invention, there's no money in having a reserve. It's even worse if the _rate_ of consumption doesn't go up, then adding production to build up a reserve is folly, because the plant is guaranteed to go idle once the reserve is achieved. So, I don't have high hopes for th…

I was previously going to mention the decentralisation that could be provided by micro-grids as a mitigating factor, but don't know enough about how they work to know whether it's just replacing one vulnerability for another, but your mention of home batteries reminds me that, with micro-grids, it should be possible to narrow down to a single household "island" level of granularity if all households have solar and batteries (and the same argument for apartment blocks at equivalent scale).

Ideally, this allows for each individual unit (household, apartment complex, commercial building) to bear the costs of the "reserve assets" at the same time as being able to take advantage of them down to that granular level - as long as their battery is able to hold out and their solar able to recharge it.

And the reserve assets being smaller, fit better into a manufacturing scenario as there should be a more consistent, less surge-style, demand.

Re: Emergency declared and curfew imposed following North Carolina power grid attack

#205

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is the actual importance of this rhetoric / labeling discussion over all emerging domestic news stories? Do you not feel that it constantly gets in the way of an actual discussion. I feel like this topic has been ongoing for over a decade. There are so many ways to describe the world. This is being described as a “[premeditated] attack”. Is there some ulterior motive I’m missing? Sorry to seem to ranty over this…

The legal system is who effing cares, in this instance. There are different mechanisms and agencies that deal with terrorist vs premeditated-but-non-political-in-objective acts. I think a lot of the desire for specificity in terminology that you’re seeing demanded is stemming from a desire for people to see organizations step in that truly have the resources, investigative experience, and political will to accomplish…

I want no political will in an investigation. I want the truth found.

Political will results in the opposite.

Re: Emergency declared and curfew imposed following North Carolina power grid attack

#206
post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean, it sounds like something that drunk or just stupid kids might do. Like smashing mailboxes, but scaled up.

The scale doesn't imply simple drunkness.

Two substations shot up? That could be one guy with a rifle. Or a small group.

Re: Emergency declared and curfew imposed following North Carolina power grid attack

#207

Civilization will end because it is so much easier to break things than build them.

How is that true now but not for the last 10 000 years? Somehow we build more than we destroy very consistently

I suspect it would depend on the popularity of various ideologies which are antithetical to civilization.

Re: Emergency declared and curfew imposed following North Carolina power grid attack

#208
post #180

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean you have the Russians waging total war on Ukraine with much better than improvised weapons and they can only keep the power off sometimes. That sends a very clear signal to me.

Is total war one of those watered-down phrases that carries an implied “within reason” along with it? Because it doesn’t really look like Russia is putting everything they have into the war effort. Maybe everything they have, within reason.

No? Total war just means you consider attacking non military targets as ok and you're essentially willing to sacrifice your domestic economy and civilian life to win. That definitely seems to mostly fit what Russia is doing, even if you don't feel like they're doing it effectively. Thusfar the only thing it seems they haven't been willing to use is nuclear weapons, and there's a reasonable argument that they're not doing that because they don't think it would help their position.

Total war doesn't mean you're required to use everything and sacrifice everything, just that you're internally willing to, which is obviously hard to determine in the moment as an external observer. It does seem like we're close enough to use the term in the moment.

Re: Emergency declared and curfew imposed following North Carolina power grid attack

#209

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is the actual importance of this rhetoric / labeling discussion over all emerging domestic news stories? Do you not feel that it constantly gets in the way of an actual discussion. I feel like this topic has been ongoing for over a decade. There are so many ways to describe the world. This is being described as a “[premeditated] attack”. Is there some ulterior motive I’m missing? Sorry to seem to ranty over this…

Because this was a targeted attack with the intentional goal of disrupting a drag show [0]. There is a rising alt-right extremist movement that is attempting to demonize LGBTQ and drag as pedophiles and groomers. Their methods are only getting more extreme [1]. They have very clear goals that are absolutely fall under the definition of terrorisms: They are attempting to terrorize a specific subset of civilian populat…

I’m pro drag show and anti extremism but this just seems so unlikely, doesn’t it? Didn’t they knock out the power for lots of churches and gun shops too? And according to news reports I’m seeing, they had the drag show anyway? I mean, people are crazy and do random things, so I’m not saying it’s impossible, but it just seems like it would be the dumbest way to try to make this dumb point.

Re: Emergency declared and curfew imposed following North Carolina power grid attack

#210

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The legal system is who effing cares, in this instance. There are different mechanisms and agencies that deal with terrorist vs premeditated-but-non-political-in-objective acts. I think a lot of the desire for specificity in terminology that you’re seeing demanded is stemming from a desire for people to see organizations step in that truly have the resources, investigative experience, and political will to accomplish…

I want no political will in an investigation. I want the truth found. Political will results in the opposite.

“Political will” is a phrase that refers to the ability of an entity to power through the partisan demands from all sides, while still maintaining and achieving their stated goal. In this case, as you desire, the truth.

So I believe we are in agreement, once terms are fully understood on all sides.

It’s important to me that we not dilute the meaning of important phrases by assuming they add up to no more than the sum of their discrete elements — it coarsens discussion and incites unnecessary rhetoric.

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