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TSMC to make 4nm chips in Arizona for Apple, AMD, Nvidia

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Re: TSMC to make 4nm chips in Arizona for Apple, AMD, Nvidia

#401

Post by kube-system »

philliphaydon wrote: post #331
DoughnutHole wrote: post #308

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's a difference between a nation and a state, although the two are nearly always synonymous in the modern world. Taiwan and China being one nation is the policy of the governments of both China and Taiwan. Of course Taiwanese nationalism is it's own thing now, but the Taiwanese people seeing themselves as not Chinese is a relatively recent phenomenon - it's been functionally independent for less than 100 years,…

> Taiwan and China being one nation is the policy of the governments of both China and Taiwan. No one in Taiwan and not even the current government consider China/Taiwan together. When KMT fled and created the constitution they claim China. Taiwan is now stuck in limbo because the people just want to live their lives in peace and already consider themselves Taiwanese and independent. But if they change the constituti…

You're speaking to the "state" part of the above comment. Yes, clearly the PRC and ROC are not the same state. "Nation" is not necessarily the same thing.

Re: TSMC to make 4nm chips in Arizona for Apple, AMD, Nvidia

#402

Post by ajhurliman »

anotherman554 wrote: post #333
macspoofing wrote: post #259

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Apple spent something like a half-trillion on share buybacks. They could have averted this crisis a decade ago by thinking strategically. I don't understand the fixation on this. Share buybacks strengthen the stock price of the company, which the company can leverage in the future to raise more capital if needed (by re-releasing new shares to the market). From that perspective, they are better than dividends. Beside…

"Share buybacks strengthen the stock price of the company, which the company can leverage in the future to raise more capital if needed (by re-releasing new shares to the market). From that perspective, they are better than dividends." You are confused. A 100 dollar company with 100 shares outstanding, each worth 1 dollar, is not better able to raise capital than a 100 dollar company with 50 shares outstanding, each…

In the case where there are 50 shares outstanding and each are worth 2 dollars, that would be true, but if there's a constant appetite for the public to invest in a company and a diminished number of shares, that would drive up the price.

Re: TSMC to make 4nm chips in Arizona for Apple, AMD, Nvidia

#403

Post by adwn »

deltaseventhree wrote: post #369
davrosthedalek wrote: post #364

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What percentage of the chip cost is the wage cost? This might be relevant for a 90uM process, but I think at 4nm, the wages are a minuscule part of the production costs.

Should be a huge portion of the cost. The material is just silicon. The expertise and know how that goes into this is where most of the money goes. For Taiwan, this expertise is better, faster and cheaper.

You're forgetting about the billions of USD that go into buying the machines that make up the fab.

> The material is just silicon.

No, a lot of chemicals are required as well.

Re: TSMC to make 4nm chips in Arizona for Apple, AMD, Nvidia

#404

Post by arghnoname »

deltaseventhree wrote: post #353
coredog64 wrote: post #292

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The US has more expensive workers who are overall worse at the job and don't have the expertise to be compete with the people in Taiwan. GMAFB. Intel has several of their fabs in the Phoenix metro area, they’re another 3-5 major players in the area, and there’s a talent pipeline from the local University into these companies. Intel’s problems aren’t an inability to fab, it’s an inability to translate their design l…

It's universally well known that Asian workers work harder and can be paid less. It's not just about intels capabilities. It's about economic wage standards. The cost is just too high in the US. That being said tsmc workers in Taiwan are by far more capable then Intel this is proven by the 3nm process of which Intel is completely incapable of achieving.

I always feel there's some implicit racism or belief in cultural superiority or something at play in these discussions. Anyone who has gone to grad school can see pretty plainly that the top schools are stuffed with Chinese and Indian nationals. They're capable and they work hard. Some of them, not a small number, go back home. Further, western industry set up shop in Asia for their own reasons and brought their expertise over.

The west had a lead, but 'we' trained Asians at our top institutions and worked closely with Asian manufacturers so that they can make our most sophisticated products more cheaply. There are a lot more people in Asia, and high relative poverty and cultural practices encourage a higher degree of scholastic achievement. Of course they're beating us now.

Outside of a very explicit and intense effort to develop domestic talent and retain foreign talent (or bloody wars), the west probably won't ever really lead ever again. This was the obvious outcome decades ago, but these things take time. The gap will grow and will extend up the value chain--western nations will do protectionism to try to slow this (e.g., Huawei, current chip restrictions), but cat's out of the bag.

I don't think it's a good or a bad thing from a global perspective. It just is. The great power competition that may result, wars, etc, is a very bad thing. The US in particular should compete as best it can, but it's best for everyone if we learn to live in a multipolar world.

Re: TSMC to make 4nm chips in Arizona for Apple, AMD, Nvidia

#405

Post by shitpostbot »

dirtyid wrote: post #320
t-3 wrote: post #314

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> exfiltrate TSMC engineers (before children no less) Why would you expect the US military to care about children or try to evacuate them?

US military doesn't care. But the TWnese care, which US thinktankers/media, and I'm guessing US based commenters like you seem to forget. Hence the disconnect on why people seriously contemplate these TW will blow up TSMC memes. And why TW media reminding US, that if they're going to evacuate anyone off the island first, it's not going to be their semi engineers, it's going to be women and children. Or that more gene…

No post body was provided.

Re: TSMC to make 4nm chips in Arizona for Apple, AMD, Nvidia

#406

Post by arghnoname »

bpanon wrote: post #392
andy_ppp wrote: post #316

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No the reason they want to invade is to project power into the wider pacific, nationalism, imperialism and the people and human capital not just limited to semi conductors. The factories will be destroyed in any invasion, the US will guarantee it, I promise.

On what basis do you predict the US will destroy the factories?

I doubt the parent has access to American war plans, but it's reasonable to guess that the US would prefer for China not to have intact TSMC plants because it provides enormous leverage. It's the same as blowing up Nordstream II. This is standard war stuff, and if the US is at war with China, heavy sanctions, etc, we wouldn't be able to buy the chips anyway. Why not drop a cruise missile on it?

Personally I hope such a thing doesn't happen. If I had to guess, Taiwan will eventually come under mainland China's control, but I hope this is done very slowly and in a bloodless way following a referendum by the Taiwanese themselves (e.g., only after certain guarantees of autonomy are made and the Taiwanese opt for the 'easy route'). I doubt mainland China will accept this thorn in their side indefinitely.

Re: TSMC to make 4nm chips in Arizona for Apple, AMD, Nvidia

#407

Post by anotherman554 »

ajhurliman wrote: post #402
anotherman554 wrote: post #333

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Share buybacks strengthen the stock price of the company, which the company can leverage in the future to raise more capital if needed (by re-releasing new shares to the market). From that perspective, they are better than dividends." You are confused. A 100 dollar company with 100 shares outstanding, each worth 1 dollar, is not better able to raise capital than a 100 dollar company with 50 shares outstanding, each…

In the case where there are 50 shares outstanding and each are worth 2 dollars, that would be true, but if there's a constant appetite for the public to invest in a company and a diminished number of shares, that would drive up the price.

That might be how you imagine the stock market works based on first principles but Investopedia tells us

"The most liquid stocks tend to be those with a great deal of interest from various market actors and a lot of daily transaction volume. Such stocks will also attract a larger number of market makers who maintain a tighter two-sided market."

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/liquidity.asp

In other words the more appetite for the stock, the more liquid the stock, and therefore the easier it is for a buyer to acquire the stock. This is presumably because stock market indexes will refuse to include an illiquid stock, meaning there will be less demand for the stock, and the stock price will drop.

Apple did a 4 for 1 stock split in 2020. Do you really think they screwed over their investors because you know something they don't about how stocks are valued?

Re: TSMC to make 4nm chips in Arizona for Apple, AMD, Nvidia

#408

Post by NeverFade »

rsj_hn wrote: post #354
NeverFade wrote: post #348

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Does "one generation before current" count as "long tail", though? The chip shortage in products like cars has been for much simpler chips, AFAIK. The article says Apple, AMD, and Nvidia are looking to source from the new plant. Aren't they canonical examples of companies that are always looking for the latest and greatest? Why would they be interested in an prev-gen chip?

Automotive industry is still using 90nm chips. It's not even the generation before the current one. They have long production runs and require stability, and they also prefer to use standardized parts across many production runs. Defense also uses older chips. Don't ask what kind of chips are in Amraam missiles or the F-35 -- although the F-35 is getting a technology refresh now (after a 14 year production run). Only…

That's what I thought. If consumer products tend to use the bleeding edge, which will be the state-of-the-art chips produced in Taiwan, then I still don't get:

1. What's so exciting about a prev-gen fab possibly being completed in 2024?

2. Who will buy the chips produced by the 4nm Arizona fab, and why?

The only plausible answer offered for 1 in this thread has been that it's too difficult to jump straight into the bleeding edge, and this is the most the US can do to lay the foundation for an eventual catch-up with the state of the art in chip fabrication.

Re: TSMC to make 4nm chips in Arizona for Apple, AMD, Nvidia

#409

Post by biomcgary »

bpanon wrote: post #392
andy_ppp wrote: post #316

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No the reason they want to invade is to project power into the wider pacific, nationalism, imperialism and the people and human capital not just limited to semi conductors. The factories will be destroyed in any invasion, the US will guarantee it, I promise.

On what basis do you predict the US will destroy the factories?

Mutually Assured (Economic) Destruction. If destroying the TSMC factories is off the table, then China is incentivized to invade (to capture leading edge chip production). If the fabs are destroyed, it would take years to rebuild, which will cripple Chinese production of consumer goods using those chips.

Personally, I would be shocked if the US military doesn't also have a plan to "relocate" strategic personnel to the US in the event of invasion by China.

Re: TSMC to make 4nm chips in Arizona for Apple, AMD, Nvidia

#410

Post by hammock »

menshiki wrote: post #235

Great news for the US. Great news for Apple, AMD, and Nvidia. Not so good news for Taiwan. The fact that the whole tech world is dependent on chips produced in Hsinchu is a huge advantage for the safety of Taiwan. Moving the fabs and talent further away from the island will not benefit the people of Taiwan at all. TSMC with its global influence has been a huge factor for guaranteeing safety of the island and peace in…

>Great news for the US. Great news for Apple, AMD, and Nvidia. Not so good news for Taiwan. The fact that the whole tech world is dependent on chips produced in Hsinchu is a huge advantage for the safety of Taiwan. Moving the fabs and talent further away from the island will not benefit the people of Taiwan at all.

Naive question, can we relocate the people of Taiwan?

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