TSMC to make 4nm chips in Arizona for Apple, AMD, Nvidia • Hacker News Board

Re: TSMC to make 4nm chips in Arizona for Apple, AMD, Nvidia

#321

Post by HDThoreaun » Thu, Dec 01, 2022, 4:55 PM UTC

throwaway82028 wrote: post #183

Where in Arizona specifically? Have they even decided? Did the government decide to pay for the factory and enroll their for-profit prisoners to work for $0.10/per hour, and divert the remaining water supply to the factory? Arizona seems like a terrible choice for a chip factory, unless they've selected an area that gets natural water... and there aren't many.

Intel has tons of fabs in phoenix so TSMC can steal some of their employees. I think intel chose arizona because of the lack of natural disasters and tax incentives. The water is mostly reused so not really that big of a deal.

Re: TSMC to make 4nm chips in Arizona for Apple, AMD, Nvidia

#322

Post by t-3 » Thu, Dec 01, 2022, 4:56 PM UTC

Mikeb85 wrote: post #287

deltaseventhree wrote: post #282

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Espionage is a minor reason. Trivial really. The main reason is the looming threat of invasion of Taiwan from China. Such an action is catastrophic for Taiwan and the US. I thought this was obvious. Guess not. The US is an easier espionage point for the US to steal technology from Taiwan. Most likely it will happen. But simple espionage isn't enough for this technology to fully transfer. The expertise and knowhow is…

Does TSMC "own" the technology? Because their fabs are wholly dependent on ASML, a Dutch company. And they're using that to produce tech that's designed in the west as well.

Right, only culturally European people know how to do anything. Those Taiwanese are just factory workers, no expertise at all, that's why Intel is in such good shape these days. Chipmaking is obviously so easy the only reason we let them do it is to keep the price down. /s

Re: TSMC to make 4nm chips in Arizona for Apple, AMD, Nvidia

#323

Post by amelius » Thu, Dec 01, 2022, 4:57 PM UTC

andy_ppp wrote: post #316

chaosbolt wrote: post #315

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Chip manufacturing is both the reason everyone is protecting them and also why China wants them so bad.

No the reason they want to invade is to project power into the wider pacific, nationalism, imperialism and the people and human capital not just limited to semi conductors. The factories will be destroyed in any invasion, the US will guarantee it, I promise.

> The factories will be destroyed in any invasion, the US will guarantee it I promise.

Maybe the place isn't so safe after all.

Re: TSMC to make 4nm chips in Arizona for Apple, AMD, Nvidia

#324

Post by placatedmayhem » Thu, Dec 01, 2022, 4:57 PM UTC

NeverFade wrote: post #304

CoolGuySteve wrote: post #288

Earlier quoted context omitted.

By the time the fab comes online in 2024 (which seems optimistic), 4nm should be a half-step generation or so behind. TSMC also has a dozen or so fabs in Asia, so it's not clear how the single plant in Arizona is going to meet capacity requirements or how often that plant will be retrofitted with newer equipment. This plant and the federal subsidies backing it seem more like a way for defense contractors to domestica…

TSMC expects to begin mass production of 3nm chips in its Taiwan fabs by 2023 Q4: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4546779-tsmc-no-3nm-soon This isn't my field, but I'm not sure what's the excitement about an Arizona plant that will optimistically start production a year later with an older process.

There is still a lot of demand for the not-latest-generation, "long tail" fab processes. Much of the long tail manufacturing was (is?) what the chip shortage was about, rather than the current generation.

A good example is the automotive industry. It doesn't typically move quickly or frequently onto newer generation processes as that requires R&D time and other expenses. However, these have been some of the worst shortages, with auto manufacturers still impacted by lead times (although, this is starting to clearing up fwiu).

Targeting the current-best process, rather than the next generation, alleviates some compounding of risk that would be incurred by logistics concerns of turning up a new site and putting that new site on a process that they don't yet have full confidence in because it's not seen production yet.

Re: TSMC to make 4nm chips in Arizona for Apple, AMD, Nvidia

#325

Post by HDThoreaun » Thu, Dec 01, 2022, 5:00 PM UTC

deltaseventhree wrote: post #279

nailer wrote: post #7

I love how “we can’t make chips in the US anymore it’s impossible” was something we heard only a few years ago.

It's possible. With subsidies. The US is literally paying tsmc for this to even be viable. Tsmc is not coming here because it's an economically wise move. They are coming here knowing it's an economically irrational move. Politics is the reason for this move. It is not a clear cut win. Your post has the aroma of patriotism. Patriotism blinds us to harsh truths. Why do you love how people were wrong when they said we…

> Tsmc is not coming here because it's an economically wise move.

No, it's an economically wise move because of the politics. This plant allows TSMC to gets the CHIPS subsidy, but maybe more importantly it allows them to become part of the military industrial complex which requires that products are made domestically. This fab will print money.

Re: TSMC to make 4nm chips in Arizona for Apple, AMD, Nvidia

#326

Post by trompetenaccoun » Thu, Dec 01, 2022, 5:00 PM UTC

menshiki wrote: post #235

Great news for the US. Great news for Apple, AMD, and Nvidia. Not so good news for Taiwan. The fact that the whole tech world is dependent on chips produced in Hsinchu is a huge advantage for the safety of Taiwan. Moving the fabs and talent further away from the island will not benefit the people of Taiwan at all. TSMC with its global influence has been a huge factor for guaranteeing safety of the island and peace in…

They're not closing shop in Taiwan, rather manufacturers are shifting away from China and the US government is probably encouraging/subsidizing new plants there. So this is overall a good healthy development that should have happened many years ago.

Re: TSMC to make 4nm chips in Arizona for Apple, AMD, Nvidia

#327

Post by HDThoreaun » Thu, Dec 01, 2022, 5:02 PM UTC

philliphaydon wrote: post #137

ajross wrote: post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Taiwan is "Chinese" ethnically, being populated[1] by descendants of many waves of Han colonization over the last few centuries. Concern over "China" has nothing to do with ethnicity, it's a geopolitical fight with the government of the People's Republic of China, which does not[2] rule Taiwan. [1] To be clear: there are also descendants of indigenous "Taiwanese" living there, who are austronesian and not Han. Ethnic…

Where exactly does this “Han” stuff come from because most people in China are not actually han and those in Taiwan are not han.

The vast majority of Chinese and Taiwanese identify as Han. China is effectively an ethnostate that is cleansing minorities.

Re: TSMC to make 4nm chips in Arizona for Apple, AMD, Nvidia

#328

Post by HDThoreaun » Thu, Dec 01, 2022, 5:05 PM UTC

joshjje wrote: post #201

988747 wrote: post #187

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They love wars against small third world countries that are easy to win. War with China is probably the only one that US can actually lose.

Not in this lifetime. Unless you are talking about occupying China / storming their territory, that would not go well. But defeating China at sea and in the air and in other countries? They'd have no chance.

China has 5 times as many people as the US. Their technology is behind, but they are modernizing and having 5 times as many resources and no public backlash to wasting soldiers lives goes a far way.

Re: TSMC to make 4nm chips in Arizona for Apple, AMD, Nvidia

#329

Post by smcl » Thu, Dec 01, 2022, 5:14 PM UTC

wil421 wrote: post #222

smcl wrote: post #204

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why do you say that? Are semi jobs worse-paid than other skilled jobs, or do they have worse conditions?

Yes it’s extremely toxic there’s a reason why manufacturing moved from the US (and probably EU/UK but I’m not certain). It’s horribly toxic and you can read this about Samsung[1]. Asia has what some would call almost slave labor and a complete lack of care for workers. Many countries don’t care about pollution either. US and European countries will gladly clean up manufacturing at home while shifting to countries who…

So I’ve seen conditions in some poorer nations in Asia be described as similar to slave labour, but we’re talking about Taiwan and South Korea aren’t we? These are high-income countries, so I’d be really surprised if they had such conditions.

I could believe EU has some stricter environmental regulations than both, though

Re: TSMC to make 4nm chips in Arizona for Apple, AMD, Nvidia

#330

Post by est31 » Thu, Dec 01, 2022, 5:18 PM UTC

NeverFade wrote: post #304

CoolGuySteve wrote: post #288

Earlier quoted context omitted.

By the time the fab comes online in 2024 (which seems optimistic), 4nm should be a half-step generation or so behind. TSMC also has a dozen or so fabs in Asia, so it's not clear how the single plant in Arizona is going to meet capacity requirements or how often that plant will be retrofitted with newer equipment. This plant and the federal subsidies backing it seem more like a way for defense contractors to domestica…

TSMC expects to begin mass production of 3nm chips in its Taiwan fabs by 2023 Q4: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4546779-tsmc-no-3nm-soon This isn't my field, but I'm not sure what's the excitement about an Arizona plant that will optimistically start production a year later with an older process.

You don't start at the cutting edge immediately. You start where it is better understood. Then you can still pay the enormous investments needed for getting to cutting edge and furthering it, if you want. Also, from an economic perspective, there is still plenty of demand in the market for non-cutting edge node sizes, i.e. in embedded the priority is more around the fact that the chip is not changed from a specific design that was made 4 years ago than having the latest and greatest.

From a strategic perspective, it is absolutely important that you have the capability to build chips in your country, of a reasonably modern node size. You need this for weapons manufacturing, for a working government apparatus (governments use computers now), for sending messages to your population. And if China bombs Taiwan, then this fab will become the cutting edge, instead of you having zero chip manufacturing capabilities.