Earlier quoted context omitted.
what are the alternatives?
Exactly what you're seeing. Move semiconductor industry out of Taiwan so then when China takes it, disruption is lessened.
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TSMC to make 4nm chips in Arizona for Apple, AMD, Nvidia
301–310 of 543 posts
Re: TSMC to make 4nm chips in Arizona for Apple, AMD, Nvidia
#302Great news for the US. Great news for Apple, AMD, and Nvidia. Not so good news for Taiwan. The fact that the whole tech world is dependent on chips produced in Hsinchu is a huge advantage for the safety of Taiwan. Moving the fabs and talent further away from the island will not benefit the people of Taiwan at all. TSMC with its global influence has been a huge factor for guaranteeing safety of the island and peace in…
I don't see anything changing yet in terms of Global Influence. TSMC will still have their leading edge, state of art, and majority of capacity in Taiwan for the foreseeable future.
The 4nm US Fab, based on N5, will be two years behind in 2024, where TSMC will be producing N3 class in volume and N2 in 2025. Given the N3 Class are long node before moving to something more exotic and expensive N2 with GAFFET. I would expect the US Fab to be upgraded and start producing N3 in 2026 on US Soil.
Re: TSMC to make 4nm chips in Arizona for Apple, AMD, Nvidia
#303So cool. When I drive to San Diego to see family and friends I drive right by these massive new facilities on the new Route 303 bypass outside of Phoenix.
I am so happy to see more super high tech manufacturing happening back to my country. While I am in general a fan of globalization, I also believe that for resiliency every country should maintain their own unique cultures as well as have some independence so that with a reduction of life style they are still be able to survive independently from the rest of the world.
Re: TSMC to make 4nm chips in Arizona for Apple, AMD, Nvidia
#304Great news for the US. Great news for Apple, AMD, and Nvidia. Not so good news for Taiwan. The fact that the whole tech world is dependent on chips produced in Hsinchu is a huge advantage for the safety of Taiwan. Moving the fabs and talent further away from the island will not benefit the people of Taiwan at all. TSMC with its global influence has been a huge factor for guaranteeing safety of the island and peace in…
By the time the fab comes online in 2024 (which seems optimistic), 4nm should be a half-step generation or so behind. TSMC also has a dozen or so fabs in Asia, so it's not clear how the single plant in Arizona is going to meet capacity requirements or how often that plant will be retrofitted with newer equipment. This plant and the federal subsidies backing it seem more like a way for defense contractors to domestica…
TSMC expects to begin mass production of 3nm chips in its Taiwan fabs by 2023 Q4: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4546779-tsmc-no-3nm-soon
This isn't my field, but I'm not sure what's the excitement about an Arizona plant that will optimistically start production a year later with an older process.
Re: TSMC to make 4nm chips in Arizona for Apple, AMD, Nvidia
#305This is the node used to make the iPhone 14 Pro Max chip.
Re: TSMC to make 4nm chips in Arizona for Apple, AMD, Nvidia
#306My first job out of school was final test for a semiconductor in Phoenix that had a small fab in Gilbert. I remember we took a rabbit suited tour there as part of the new hire orientation, it was pretty neat. The one thing though that stuck with me is how much water a fab needs on a daily basis. I can’t remember the exact number, I just remember thinking how stupid it was to build fabs in Phoenix. But then again, the…
It's like a swimming pool. It takes a lot of water to initially fill it, but then it's cleaned and mostly recirculated/reused. In 2020, Intel used less water per chip than they did in 2010.
https://www.intel.com/content/www/us/en/newsroom/news/water-...
Re: TSMC to make 4nm chips in Arizona for Apple, AMD, Nvidia
#307Earlier quoted context omitted.
China absolutely wants to be reunited with Taiwan. Taiwan is a constant reminder of the century of humiliation (Translated term that is basically China's term for Opium wars to WWII). Taiwan is an integral part of the Chinese nation and for nationalistic reasons, it would be an issue even if Taiwan had no other benefits.
> Taiwan is an integral part of the Chinese nation No it isn't. China under the Communist Party has never ruled or controlled Taiwan (since 1949). Taiwan democratized, developed, and got wealthy first, completely independently of China. Taiwan has never in modern history been an integral part of China.
China has been a country for longer than the history of European civilization. They do not subscribe to the view that nothing that happened before 1945 matters the way Americans seem to.
Re: TSMC to make 4nm chips in Arizona for Apple, AMD, Nvidia
#308Earlier quoted context omitted.
China absolutely wants to be reunited with Taiwan. Taiwan is a constant reminder of the century of humiliation (Translated term that is basically China's term for Opium wars to WWII). Taiwan is an integral part of the Chinese nation and for nationalistic reasons, it would be an issue even if Taiwan had no other benefits.
> Taiwan is an integral part of the Chinese nation No it isn't. China under the Communist Party has never ruled or controlled Taiwan (since 1949). Taiwan democratized, developed, and got wealthy first, completely independently of China. Taiwan has never in modern history been an integral part of China.
There's a difference between a nation and a state, although the two are nearly always synonymous in the modern world.
Taiwan and China being one nation is the policy of the governments of both China and Taiwan.
Of course Taiwanese nationalism is it's own thing now, but the Taiwanese people seeing themselves as not Chinese is a relatively recent phenomenon - it's been functionally independent for less than 100 years, and before that it was a Japanese colony like several others that have since been reabsorbed by China.
I'm not supporting Chineses irredentism, and I don't think the parent comment was either. Taiwan should remain independent. What the parent was explaining is why China would want Taiwan no matter what - it's a historical part of China that is relatively recently separated, so they want it for purely nationalistic reasons. It's no different from Serbia and Kosovo, or Russia and swaths of Ukraine. The economics don't matter if all you care about is your wounded national pride.
Re: TSMC to make 4nm chips in Arizona for Apple, AMD, Nvidia
#309Earlier quoted context omitted.
Without the staff from TSMC, the Chinese Government probably can't run those facilities. I suspect there isn't much probability that china could mobilize and take those facilities as-is with no sabotage. The US has taken steps recently to reduce china's ability to make chips domestically. See - https://www.seattletimes.com/business/chip-gear-maker-asml-a...
I've read that TSMC fabs are filled with explosives to set off if China invades so they wouldn't get their hands on tech and equipment. I'm pretty certain that's true, given how important TSMC tech is.
That meme makes zero sense considering TW don't want to be a third world economy dependant on exporting fruit even if PRC successfully invades. There's reason TW media was telling US think tanks to leave TSMC alone when US Army War College analysis suggested US should consider bombing TSMC... or exfiltrate TSMC engineers (before children no less) in event of war. As long as fabs and downstream supply chain supplies said fabs are intact, the island will have leverage to remain viable modern economy to support relatively affluent lifestyle. Note the point on downstream supply chain, there's sufficiently exclusive niche semi industries sustaining TSMC on TW that makes it as critical as ASML. Don't expect any Arizona TSMC fabs to operate smoothly without them. If anything, expect TSMC and TW + PRC to collude to threaten TSMC US fabs if try to sanction TSMC TW from making chips in event of successful PRC takeover. The people whose making bank off TSMC will want to so regardless of who rules the island. Ultimately short/medium term also in US interest to keep fabs going because not enough fab capacity will be reshored off island for long time, and the interest groups hurt most is US high tech industry who extracts disproportionate value add from TW fabs. Imaging every company that depends on leading edge chips turning into Huawei/ZTE because 95% of production goes kaput. Currently, cratered TSMC fabs actually works in sanctioned PRC's favour because it dramatically closes relative gap of who has access to high end semi. PRC vastly better off in balance where everyone is mostly stuck on 28nm+ instead of one where US has unfettered access to leading edge.
Re: TSMC to make 4nm chips in Arizona for Apple, AMD, Nvidia
#310I find it comical that the US educates more than 90% of top engineers yet we don’t control 90% of crucial chip-making assets. We need to implement some type of conditions for anyone seeking education here in the US especially in institutions that are backed by US tax dollars. We need to stop handing out education to the very people who are dead set on competing against our national interests. In other words, stop tra…
The US actively kicks them out of the country: once your student visa expires, GTFO. Seems crazy to me- in my dictatorship, we should do the opposite: confiscate the passport of anyone in a PhD program until 5 years after the completion of their degree.
Better than Canada where we educate our own citizens (with subsidy), and then they leave for the US immediately after graduation.
After which we bring in lower-paid people from overseas.