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TSMC to make 4nm chips in Arizona for Apple, AMD, Nvidia

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Re: TSMC to make 4nm chips in Arizona for Apple, AMD, Nvidia

#191
post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What? Is the USA going to sell their chips to China? Because when Taiwan gets invaded the Fabs will be destroyed and/or made inoperable with no way to get them functional again.

who says there is only one way to invade Taiwan? a maritime blockade would be super effective to suffocate Taiwan in a matter of months and destroy their economy.

> a maritime blockade would be super effective to

to create a total war involving the countries dependent on products from Taiwan.

Re: TSMC to make 4nm chips in Arizona for Apple, AMD, Nvidia

#192

Where in Arizona specifically? Have they even decided? Did the government decide to pay for the factory and enroll their for-profit prisoners to work for $0.10/per hour, and divert the remaining water supply to the factory? Arizona seems like a terrible choice for a chip factory, unless they've selected an area that gets natural water... and there aren't many.

Arizona is actually a good choice. It is geologically stable, doesn't suffer from natural disasters, is somewhat close to Silicon Valley, and has a large enough talent pool to staff TSMC's facilities.

Re: TSMC to make 4nm chips in Arizona for Apple, AMD, Nvidia

#193

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> (thus funding their war of aggression) I see this repeated as a matra, in a way of Carthago delenda est. But it is not true. Said warmongering dictators do not need dollars or euros to wage any war. The entire chain of the war machine is in local currency, backed by local resources. They do not need anything there, that has to be bought for dollars or euros. They are not some third would countries that have to buy…

> The entire chain of the war machine is in local currency, backed by local resources. Not really. There are already signs that the Russian military industry is in hot water now because there are no Russian semiconductor fabs that can supply the type of chips needed for anything beyond dumb ballistic missiles [1]. And it's not just chips, but also other basic electronic components or modules whose manufacturing has l…

> Not really. There are already signs that the Russian military industry is in hot water now because there are no Russian semiconductor fabs that can supply the type of chips needed for anything beyond dumb ballistic missiles […]

I don't know what your definition of «the type of chips needed for anything beyond dumb […]» is, but – if I were to infer – all chips manufactured for military needs are the dump chips, be it in China, or in Russia, or in South Korea, or in the US etc.

Military does not chase cutting-edge, smallest nanometer manufacturing facilities nor do they look for fancy 3D stacked L1 CPU caches and alike, the ones we encounter in consumer tailored microchips (MC's). MC's produced for the military sector 1) are always several generations behind the consumer counterparts; 2) are slower; 3) get subjected to extreme and very rigorous testing, e.g. getting baked in specially designed ovens; 4) they come with hardened shells to later get subjected to irradiation; 5) likely something else. Surviving specimens make it into missiles and elsewhere, for all is required for a missile is a chip that will be guaranteed to not have failed a mission.

Freescale (ex-Motorola) and Texas Instruments are two of the largest MC manufacturing contractors in the US. They have separate lines set up for consumer and military needs, with the military contracts taking a priority. I can't be bothered to check whether Intel or AMD have clandestine US DoD contracts but it is safe to assume so. When Motorola used to manufacture their own MC's, they also had two separate lines for the highly sought after DSP's, 56k and 96k series. There were two versions, a hardened one (prohibited for export out of the US), and the consumer version (with somewhat more relaxed export controls for the 56k series but not for the 96k series). Tolerance specs of the hardened version were classified at the time.

Back onto Russia. To cut it short, it is a case of hypocrisy on both sides as propaganda has been busy working on both sides. Soviet Union (and later, Russia) has been self-sustained, self-contained and has been manufacturing their own chips since late 1960s - early 1970s with always prioritising military needs over the consumer needs. They have never chased the latest designs or developments, but their stuff has been reliable where required.

It is not easy to assess their current situation due to the information disclosure suppresion and also due to prior reports of embezzlement on a unfathomable scale having taken place in Russia specifically when it comes to military contracts. What it is known with a fairly high degree of certainty is that Russia had commenced a 90 nm manufacturing facility as early as 2014[•]. There have also been sketchy reports that they have since moved on to a 28 nm process. Finding a reliable source is not easy, though.

Either way, chips that have been produced to a 90 (or 28 nm) process and have been subjected to hardcore testing requirements are good enough to drive missiles (likely, other military equipment too). Provided chip manufacturing facilities are still operating in Zelenograd, their output will be prioritised in the current political environment, and it will receive a priority funding in the local currency. One ought not to underestimate the adversary and ought to be wary of the creativity they may come up with once having been cornered.

Emperor Poo of All Russia has been demonstrating the world that he is willing to drive his never be, imaginary empire into the ground at any cost – in order to fulfil his ultimate wet dream of crowning himself as the first Galactic Emperor Poo, and, since Russia has been making their own silicon wafers, the MC manufacturing situation is not all that black or white – until more is known for sure.

[•] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mikron_Group

Re: TSMC to make 4nm chips in Arizona for Apple, AMD, Nvidia

#194

Where in Arizona specifically? Have they even decided? Did the government decide to pay for the factory and enroll their for-profit prisoners to work for $0.10/per hour, and divert the remaining water supply to the factory? Arizona seems like a terrible choice for a chip factory, unless they've selected an area that gets natural water... and there aren't many.

Hmm, my understanding was that fabs needed an initial supply of water, but then could cycle that same water for a long time.

A quick Google[0] suggests that they've only started doing this heavily pretty recently, but I'm guessing new fabs in Arizona will implement state of the art water-recycling.

That said, the numbers in this article suggest that 98% recycling would drop usage to the equivalent of ~6000 homes, which still feels significant.

Low seismic activity is the benefit of Arizona that I've seen cited in the past, which I'd guess outweighs the water sourcing issues.

[0] https://spectrum.ieee.org/fabs-cut-back-water-use

Re: TSMC to make 4nm chips in Arizona for Apple, AMD, Nvidia

#195

Where in Arizona specifically? Have they even decided? Did the government decide to pay for the factory and enroll their for-profit prisoners to work for $0.10/per hour, and divert the remaining water supply to the factory? Arizona seems like a terrible choice for a chip factory, unless they've selected an area that gets natural water... and there aren't many.

Arizona is actually a good choice. It is geologically stable, doesn't suffer from natural disasters, is somewhat close to Silicon Valley, and has a large enough talent pool to staff TSMC's facilities.

Surely somewhere in the midwest would be more geologically stable and have plenty of access to water. Not sure the proximity to Silicon Valley makes any difference. It's not like factory workers are going to commute from California to Arizona.

Re: TSMC to make 4nm chips in Arizona for Apple, AMD, Nvidia

#196

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Intel is still holds the market on laptops and desktops at about 3/4. They simply push more volume. TSMC makes desktop chips for Apple, but Apple isn’t the majority. The rest of TSMC’s production is almost exclusively GPUs and phones, and this could change. If Intel executes well on their next nodes, and should TSMC slip at all, Intel could pull ahead. Never count Intel out. People thought Intel would die after the z…

The market isn't laptops/desktops and phones, everything has ICs in it these days. Laptops/desktops and phones are just the high-margin items. The blast-radius for non-intel chip fabricators is much wider and impactful for the economy

Sure, but most of the rest isn’t leading edge and more manufacturers are in that space, including TSMC and Intel.

Re: TSMC to make 4nm chips in Arizona for Apple, AMD, Nvidia

#197
post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Actually, Europe is doing pretty good due to having a monopoly on making chip making machines via ASML in the Netherlands which relies heavily on Carl Zeiss in Germany. Fun fact by the way, at some point Japan and Europe were very close in state-of-the-art semiconductor manufacturing while the US didn’t have the capabilities anymore because it was outcompeted by Japan. At that point, the US donated funds and 20 years…

Yeah, but local fabs in Europe are far, far away from Intel, TSMC and Samsung. Infineon, NXP and STM are wayy behind.

The reason is simple. Europeans don't want to work in chip factories.

Re: TSMC to make 4nm chips in Arizona for Apple, AMD, Nvidia

#198

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Already being planned by Intel. They're building a new leading edge fab in Magdeburg, Germany [1]. This is backed by the new European Chips Act [2]. Wheels have started turning very quickly with regards to home-grown semiconductors in 2022. [1] https://www.intel.co.uk/content/www/uk/en/newsroom/news/eu-n... [2] https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_22_...

How leading edge will Intel's Germany fab be when it's finished? 10nm++? While TSMC will be on what, 1nm by then? Intel's PR link doesn't go into details on this.

It will be whatever the latest node is at completion, so most likely Intel 3 or Intel 20A [1]. It was Pat Gelsinger's pledge to get Intel's node roadmap back on track when he joined as CEO just under 2 years ago. From what they've been submitting papers wise to industry forums, IEEE Synopsium and the like, they're on track to deliver 20A by 2025. I recommend following the progress of Intel's new "Intel Foundry Services" business segment.

[1] https://www.intel.com/content/www/us/en/newsroom/news/intel-...

[2] https://www.granitefirm.com/blog/us/2021/12/28/tsmc-process-...

Re: TSMC to make 4nm chips in Arizona for Apple, AMD, Nvidia

#199

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, but local fabs in Europe are far, far away from Intel, TSMC and Samsung. Infineon, NXP and STM are wayy behind.

The reason is simple. Europeans don't want to work in chip factories.

Do you have any sources for your claims or are you making stuff up?

Many, many Europeans do work in factories. Just ask the Germans.

What's wrong with working in chip factories anyway? They produce some of the highest margin products in the world and since they are highly automated, working in a chip factory requires certain knowledge and education on physics, quality assurance, automation, material science, and certainly give you experience that makes you a valuable worker with future perspects rather than a replaceable cog in a dead end job as is the case for the Europeans working in most other factories that are a few steps away from being off-shored to lower cost areas.

Re: TSMC to make 4nm chips in Arizona for Apple, AMD, Nvidia

#200
post #120

Poor Taiwanese people... their security insurance has just been cancelled. I wonder how many days after the first successful batches of chips coming out of the Arizona fab will China invade Taiwan. I do hope not, but realistically: with high-end chips being made on US soil, the US will have very little interest in protecting Taiwan, apart from maybe blocking China from also acquiring the tech.

One plant does not change the game that much. You still need TSMC to keep working on whatever the next tech will be as well as all their current production in Taiwan which is fully booked.

I agree that it's not a simple plant opens => China invades, but this does feel like we're starting to see the dominos line up.

If it's about talent, it's a lot easier to quickly import people than to import a massive fab plant, and I assume we'll be building talent (either domestic or imported) as we build out the related infrastructure and industry.

It would certainly be disruptive, but I assume part of the US's drive is to reduce dependency on Taiwan, and consequently exposure to the threat of China.

If the US stops caring about Taiwan, it's both safer for China to invade Taiwan (less pushback from the US), and less geopolitically valuable (less damage to the US), but China's interests aren't focused entirely on the geopolitical when it comes to Taiwan.

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