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Goodbye, data science

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Re: Goodbye, data science

#391

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem is that nobody actually wants data science. They want data pseudoscience. And for the same reason that people tend to want pseudoscience instead of science in any other domain, too. Science is slow, tentative, and messy, and usually responds to questions with even more questions rather than with answers. Pseudoscience tends to be much more concerned with exuding confidence and providing clean-cut answers.…

> The problem is that nobody actually wants data science. They want data pseudoscience. Technically, I think investors & owners would want the company to use real data science to improve products & maximize profits. Everybody in the middle just wants to use data to lie to get promoted faster - because you don't get promoted for actually doing a good job - you get promoted for convincing people you did a good job, and…

> I think investors & owners would want the company to use real data science to improve products & maximize profits.

This is based on the assumption that companies are focused on long term profits and stability, and I’m not sure why anyone believes that to be the case anymore. The vast majority of companies are run based on next quarter’s stock price or growth metrics.

I worked on a newly formed data science team coming out of grad school that was tasked with taking some predictive initiatives that the company had relied on external consultants to produce, and implementing them in-house. The external team’s results always looked exactly like what the business wanted to hear, but they rarely played out in practice. This was in part because the underlying data quality was terrible, and the company wasn’t executing in a way that allowed anyone to actually answer the questions being asked. The consultants would just torture the data until they could come up with a report that would ensure the company would come back the following year. So we spent a lot of time trying pouring cold water into the business groups who saw data science as a magic wand that would conjure up more money at no cost. But we never were able to convince them to invest in anything that would take longer than a year. Anything that would require a change in their marketing or strategy executions that wouldn’t immediately deliver increased results was just a non-starter. But actual data science requires that kind of investment for long-term layoffs. So the data science team became figure-heads, never given the buy-in to actually make impact on business, but kept around so teams and leaders could tout being “data-driven” and throw “AI” and “machine-learning” into PR and marketing materials.

You aren’t wrong about middle management is looking to get promoted faster. But every single individual from the employee looking for a promotion to the executive suite to the investors are addicted to incentive windows no longer than 6-12 months.

Re: Goodbye, data science

#392
post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You don't look at single outcomes with statistics.

See? “Better luck next time”. Not being mean to you, just showing how typically the goal posts are moved. To give you an example from physics, if you find just one experiment that goes against your model, you immediately invalidate the model. You don’t just make grand claims that the model in general works.

The goal posts are only moved if they were in the incorrect position in the first place. Statistics isn’t the science of prediction, it’s the science of uncertainty management. There is always uncertainty, and how well you’ve measured uncertainty only can be accurately assessed over a large enough time frame over a large enough number of events.

It’s like when people got upset about Trump winning when 538 only gave him a 30% chance. That one event tells us nothing. But if all predictions 538 says have a 30% chance of occurring happen 30% of the time, then they are spot on. That’s not apparent with a single event though.

The problem is that most managers, companies, and people (including yourself, apparently) are statistically illiterate enough to not understand this, and jump head first into data science initiatives expecting immediate results, which is usually doomed to fail, at which point they blame others and not their poorly formed expectations.

There’s plenty of bad data science out there, but most failed data science initiatives are doomed before anyone every builds a model or analyzes any data.

Re: Goodbye, data science

#393

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When the R/stats guy quits and you have to figure out which of his 7 notebooks to run in which order and which local files need to be in which local directories to run correctly and which versions of each package are now broken and which code you need to rewrite to fix it you start to realize the value he produced was clicking a lot of buttons in the right order and that overall this doesn't scale at all.

That sounds more like a jupyter notebook/python problem than an R problem. but otherwise, yes, I see the problem.

The hours I have spent debugging package problems in R would disagree.

Re: Goodbye, data science

#394
post #135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Honestly, I can't tell you how many jobs ads I saw where I was wondering: "What would they expect me to bring to the table here?" Some companies just don't have the data, or heck even the need, for data scientist yet try and hire them anyway. Give smart people a fundamentally ill-posed problem and they won't get anywhere anyway.

It’s a great skill to walk in to a job and say “hey I’m the expert, that’s not a reasonable proposal, here’s the problem we can solve and here’s what we’ll do”. Much more value to the company, but hard to do.

It’s also not rewarded in modern companies. People are rewarded more for worthless garbage produced than worthless garbage avoided. You don’t have much to show for yourself when you talk a company down from making a plunge into a foolhardy, doomed initiative. Pretty soon the bean-counters might wonder why you are being paid when you don’t have as much to show for your work as others. See Elon’s “lines of code” decision making.

Re: Goodbye, data science

#395

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And then reverse a binary tree?

What's your point? The question about sample sizes is arcane trivia?

For someone on an ML team? Yes. You could spend years building computer vision models and not once think about sample size.

Re: Goodbye, data science

#396

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That sounds more like a jupyter notebook/python problem than an R problem. but otherwise, yes, I see the problem.

The hours I have spent debugging package problems in R would disagree.

I know that pain. That’s why I’m saying avoid it if you can do so.

Re: Goodbye, data science

#397

Earlier quoted context omitted.

See? “Better luck next time”. Not being mean to you, just showing how typically the goal posts are moved. To give you an example from physics, if you find just one experiment that goes against your model, you immediately invalidate the model. You don’t just make grand claims that the model in general works.

The goal posts are only moved if they were in the incorrect position in the first place. Statistics isn’t the science of prediction, it’s the science of uncertainty management. There is always uncertainty, and how well you’ve measured uncertainty only can be accurately assessed over a large enough time frame over a large enough number of events. It’s like when people got upset about Trump winning when 538 only gave h…

Whoa, slow down with your elitism.

Who do you think you are?

Re: Goodbye, data science

#398
post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Meaning you could absolutely suck at your job or be incredible at it and you’d get nearly the same regards in either case. One of the things I don't like about statements like this said in a Data Science context, is that they are true outside of Data Science as well. Executives make big decisions, managers make smaller decisions, nobody can evaluate how good/bad they really were for months or years. Engineers build…

Not to get too off topic, but as a 35 year old engineer it seems the world in general has far fewer consequences than I was raised to expect. Everything from businesses with bullshit ideas flourishing at a loss, to January 6 even being possible (politics aside I expected the Capitol Police to crack a lot more skulls than they did once people started smashing windows), to the whole FTX situation and the tepid response…

My parents raised me with the message that there are no second chances. I've only found that to be true in a few particular situations in my life.

Re: Goodbye, data science

#399

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That’s impressive. Between work (30 hours a week) and classes (full time credit load), I’ve never had less free time than when I was in college. And I’m speaking now as someone with 2 young kids and a full time job. Something tells me your experience is not commensurate with the standard college experience. Perhaps you didn’t have a full time job or only took part time credits?

> Something tells me your experience is not commensurate with the standard college experience. I know very few university students with significant work commitments. In the US, the stereotypical college student is not also holding down any kind of job. Maybe 5-7 hours of "work study" (light work running the reference desk at the library or working in the dining hall). Frankly, I doubt the majority could do learn a lo…

Happy to be wrong here. It sucks to think I had the standard experience given how difficult and draining it was.

Re: Goodbye, data science

#400

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It so happens that "good" behaviour that we seek to embed in our children is generally the same as behaviour that is good for society. Broadly the values I've tried to instil in my children break down as - Take responsibilities seriously - Apply your best efforts - Be considerate - Cultivate empathy - Value yourself - Don't be a dick - When you screw up, admit it, and make amends These, when applied, lead to the beha…

> It so happens that "good" behaviour that we seek to embed in our children is generally the same as behaviour that is good for society. The behaviour that most of the school system seeks to embed in children is primarily "obey and do as you're told, don't question", which is far from good.

I disagree, but our school systems probably differ.
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