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Goodbye, data science

ryxcommar.com

321–330 of 415 posts

Re: Goodbye, data science

#321

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you hit the nail on the head there with the survivorship bias and the raised in a bubble comments. Most people are raised in a bubble because children generally can't cope with how messy and complicated the world is. And systems and companies that last a long time can point to how successful they were because of their good decisions while ignoring their equally bad decisions that really should have undone the…

Thanks for the concern, but I'm all right, I have the privilege of living near the top of Maslow's hierarchy and actually pondering these questions. :) If I'm a nihilist I'm at the "creating your own value system" part. The world is generally a giant blob of apathetic flavorless jello, I can at least inject some sugar and food coloring wherever I'm at. There's also some freedom in that, when people don't care they al…

Good to hear you're doing relatively well, and I agree that injecting positivity where you can is probably one of the sanest ways to live.

Re: Goodbye, data science

#322
Regarding the business impact of data science related work, as a working ds and team lead a have a few thoughts. There are some sectors and activities that are very data science like, to using a blunt anachronism, have been like that for a long time, and have a lot of teachings on how to develop and measure impact on business by the automated decision systems and/or analytical work that they build. Some examples are:

- demand forecasting for supply chain processes - credit scoring for loan approval - portfolio risk analysis in financial settings - some misc optimizations work on operations - maybe even six sigma can be listed here

Those have always had a data-science-like feel to it. The problem I see is when companies try to implement a data science team is:

1. push out subject expert knowledge and requirements just for the "freedom"; 2. have stake holders to be out of touch with the solutions; 3. too litle focus on putting stuff "in production", tracking, beeing able to experiment, in whatever sense those have for the company; 4. too much focus on numbers that can come out of the ds's computer, and treating operation related numbers as an after thought; 5. no basic knowledge of simple/common/classic solutions for their problem at hand.

So yeah, making business impact is way harder than is sounds, and too out of the skill set for the 23yo STEM graduate to actually make impact. And too buzzwordy and impressive for the typical decision maker. I mean, I've heard countless times things like: "if an AI knows how to tell a cat from a dog by using one of those neural nets logarithms, surely it can know how to partition my marketing budget, optimize my coupon giving logic and determine the strategy we should have in order to achieve a very obscurely constructed OKR". (yes, I have worked for people that used the word logarithm to mean algorithm).

Re: Goodbye, data science

#323
post #189

I have to agree with a lot of this - I started my career as a data scientist right out of a STEM PhD back when the term just started coming into existence. At the time, anyone who wanted to get hired as a Data Scientist needed to be trained as a professional scientist, i.e. have a PhD - at first my expectation that the purpose of my job was to apply the scientific method to solve business problems by leveraging the c…

> the higher up I climbed the more I realized the job had marginal business impact Do you have any observations why? I'm a pretty lowly business analyst, but my observation is if you don't own the decision making (usually by having profit and loss responsibility), you can't have much impact. Possibly it's the companies and industries I've worked at, but at the end of the day if the results don't meet expectations, it…

Here is an example: target metrics are heavily manipulated and people don't really want to know what's going on. At my first job the Director of Product would change the way a target KPI was measured every few months but would not back-propagate the changes, the end result was that to upper management the product always looked good, because the product owner would just redefine the metric in a way that made the numbers go up. This was at a multi-billion marketcap company in the SP500 and this particular person was promoted two levels to managing vice president in 1.5 years.

Basically, like some other people have already said, companies are inherently political - they do not want data-driven decisions they want their decisions to be data-validated. If their view of reality aligns with the data that is all the better, but if it doesn't, their alignment takes priority. Moving up as a DS then involves delivering "evidence" that fits whatever narrative your boss and senior management want. Sometimes that evidence will be rock solid, other times there is no evidence. That's why I suspect in the beginning they loved hiring STEM PhDs from "elite" universities. If your degree is from Harvard Astronomy Dept, people will borrow your credentials to further their agenda - because you got a golden halo.

TLDR: science is not gospel, it's just a method of thinking to deduce natural laws, if you keep digging you can find your initial assumptions proven wrong, sometimes completely wrong, - in business and politics if you dig too hard, you start finding things that nobody wants to hear.

Regarding your point about owning profit and loss that is very true as well. In my second job I was in a center of excellence team and it was extremely hard to get any traction because we didn't own any sources of revenue so we were a cost center like HR or Accounting. Teams that owned LOBs want to hire their own analytics rather then "outsource" to a COE team as a way to retain control and expand their own power base.

Would I ever do it again? Who knows, maybe, I still believe it's possible to do good scientific work outside of academia (not to say good science always gets done in academia either). I am living off investments and savings right now and working on hobby projects that may or may not pan out. People always take less than ideal jobs for want of reality.

I think there is real value in scientific analysis in business but it's closer to operations research where you solve complex optimization problems that are directly pertinent to the core business (like traffic routing or container packing) than in busting out the latest DNN techniques.

Re: Goodbye, data science

#324

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>The older I get, the more I realize how fragile a lot of human systems really are, but I suspect it has always been this way and it won't change significantly any time in my lifetime I agree that human systems have always been fragile, but have long been papered-over by things like "decency", "tradition" and "doing the right thing" and in extreme cases, mobs with pitch-forks. I disagree that it won't change in our l…

I took the prior post as in, "the fact that they are fragile won't change", not that the systems themselves won't change. And I would agree with that---I see it as yet another expression of the human condition. We may try to build order over chaos to make society, but we also keep loopholes and wiggle room for our psyches. I think the fragility of human systems emerges from that contradiction. Students of history and…

Yeah, I was really going for something like "the more things change, the more they stay the same."

Re: Goodbye, data science

#325

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not to get too off topic, but as a 35 year old engineer it seems the world in general has far fewer consequences than I was raised to expect. Everything from businesses with bullshit ideas flourishing at a loss, to January 6 even being possible (politics aside I expected the Capitol Police to crack a lot more skulls than they did once people started smashing windows), to the whole FTX situation and the tepid response…

Parenting & the public education system is a very artificially constructed bubble designed to reinforce and reward "good" behavior, where "good" is usually defined as "that which makes life easier for my caregivers". That gives kids a falsely inflated sense of how much everything matters: your caregivers want you to mind your behavior, because then they don't have to, even if you would've been perfectly fine playing…

True until you have kids yourself or in other ways become responsible for people you care about.

Re: Goodbye, data science

#326
post #6

> Nobody knew or even cared what the difference was between good and bad data science work. Meaning you could absolutely suck at your job or be incredible at it and you’d get nearly the same regards in either case. In my experience it's even a little bit worse than that. Approaches that are wrong from a statistics point of view are more likely to generate impressive seeming results. But the flaws are often subtle. A…

The problem is that nobody actually wants data science. They want data pseudoscience. And for the same reason that people tend to want pseudoscience instead of science in any other domain, too. Science is slow, tentative, and messy, and usually responds to questions with even more questions rather than with answers. Pseudoscience tends to be much more concerned with exuding confidence and providing clean-cut answers.…

In my experience, a little more nuanced.

LARGE INTERNET DATA COMPANIES. They want the real data science.

For them, data science actually allows them to perform a core business function (target their customers) in a profitable way (one way, asynchronous relationship. Note the complete lack of any "talking to a human being" in your relationship with big tech).

For everyone who isn't a large internet data company with an asynchronous relationship with their customers... what's the point?

Usually, they have only a handful of technical projects that benefit from data science.

In my experience, my multi-billion dollar organization got by with a shockingly small number of "real" data scientists.

Re: Goodbye, data science

#327

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah but in the end it’s just code. And even better, just R. The business value comes from the stats guy.

When the R/stats guy quits and you have to figure out which of his 7 notebooks to run in which order and which local files need to be in which local directories to run correctly and which versions of each package are now broken and which code you need to rewrite to fix it you start to realize the value he produced was clicking a lot of buttons in the right order and that overall this doesn't scale at all.

That sounds more like a jupyter notebook/python problem than an R problem.

but otherwise, yes, I see the problem.

Re: Goodbye, data science

#328
post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Meaning you could absolutely suck at your job or be incredible at it and you’d get nearly the same regards in either case. One of the things I don't like about statements like this said in a Data Science context, is that they are true outside of Data Science as well. Executives make big decisions, managers make smaller decisions, nobody can evaluate how good/bad they really were for months or years. Engineers build…

Not to get too off topic, but as a 35 year old engineer it seems the world in general has far fewer consequences than I was raised to expect. Everything from businesses with bullshit ideas flourishing at a loss, to January 6 even being possible (politics aside I expected the Capitol Police to crack a lot more skulls than they did once people started smashing windows), to the whole FTX situation and the tepid response…

If you are only 35 you aren't old enough to remember when interest rates were correctly pricing risk. You should see a lot more consequences show up (probably painfully for all involved) as the low interest BS makes way to people actually having to have a high likelihood of generating high positive returns to get funding and those companies that are otherwise profitable retrenching to pay off the overspend from the zero interest years.

I think you are also seeing the effect of the oligopolization of the world stemming from the bad rework of the antitrust laws relaxing antitrust enforcement significantly from the 1970's through now.Any sort of market power is really bad for this kind of behavior because almost noone wants to rock the boat if they don't have to and when you have an oligopoly/monopoly you can abuse you often can hide this stuff in slightly lower but still excessive profits.

Re: Goodbye, data science

#329
post #215

It's so buzz word heavy. I had a manager that wanted me to solve a problem using the monte-carlo method when it fact the problem had a closed form solution...

Why do math on paper when you can write code and look cool (and not like a useless academic)?

I’ll take this one step further:

Why bother to understand how either software development has solved a problem, or how maths+stats has solved a problem when you could just ignore operational practices and “train a neural network to do it”?

Re: Goodbye, data science

#330
post #296

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Consequences often catch up slowly. It took years for Elizabeth Holmes to be sentenced because it takes time to collect evidence, build an airtight case, and give people their due process. As I get older, I'm actually noticing more and more consequences catching up with people, albeit slowly. The people I knew who drank heavily through their 20s and 30s are in much worse shape than basically anyone who made an effort…

I can't match up your anecdata with mine. I can think of numerous people who have done all the things you have mentioned and have no suffered no ill-effects. In fact, many have prospered from lying or cheating the system. From substance abuse to habitual lying, there were no consequences and actually in some cases great wealth was accrued. A great deal of awful people have a very fine life out of it, and there is no…

> Also, one could argue another interpretation of what you are advising is never take a risk, because it will have consequences.

That's not at all what I was saying. I was referring to predictable negative consequences of unhealthy behaviors.

There are many risks that don't involve gambling away your health, your reputation, your credibility, etc.

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