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How long would society last during a total grid collapse?

practical.engineering

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Re: How long would society last during a total grid collapse?

#301

Post by chillwaves »

arghnoname wrote: post #216
Victerius wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I regard attacks on critical civilian infrastructure as strategically indistinguishable from nuclear attacks, and deserving of a similar response. Edit: Why is this being downvoted. I'm right. One will kill 100k people instantly. The other will send them back to the Middle Ages. The former group might actually be the luckier one.

Electrical production facilities have been considered by the US and its allies as dual use and as such, legitimate targets in their strikes against enemies for quite a long time. Anyone who has watched any US 'shock and awe' campaigns notices the power goes up very, very quickly. As an American citizen, I'm very glad this wasn't treated as indistinguishable from a nuclear attack. I regret that no one was held account…

> I assume them doing this now is Russia paving the way for a more traditional operation to begin when the ground freezes.

With what army? Most estimates state they have lost well over half of their combat power. Russia is not doing anything but slowly (or sometimes quickly) retreating.

Re: How long would society last during a total grid collapse?

#302

Post by kkfx »

epistasis wrote: post #297
kkfx wrote: post #280

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I suggest a far simpler technique in the modern society: just use a long list of crapware vulnerabilities. Instead of expensive missiles just use cracked from the factory EVs, smart ovens, boiler, p.v. inverters, ... to simply create peaks loads (both demand and demand drop) and you have crushed the enemy "smart" grid without much effort, physical damage and still having it functional if you want to invade. Oh, did y…

Ukraine's electrical grid has been under severe cyber attack for years by Russia. I suspect their defenses have come pretty hardened, and Ukrainians are no slouch when it comes to software.

Ukraine electrical grid is Soviet one, so hardly crackable from remote being essentially purely electromechanical. Westerns grids on contrary...

Just to say one recent https://techcrunch.com/2022/11/23/microsoft-boa-server-energ...

Re: How long would society last during a total grid collapse?

#303

Post by pmontra »

jes5199 wrote: post #273
pmontra wrote: post #190

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If I have to start generating my power now, with no preparation and a failed grid, I think my only option is logging and burn wood. At least I can cook with that and heat a room.

maybe that’s true today but within five years I bet the economics will have pushed you and your neighbors to install at least some amount of solar and batteries

That was already planned for but I don't know if I could rely on the sun in winter when maybe it's cloudy for a couple of weeks, plus the shorter days.

Re: How long would society last during a total grid collapse?

#304

Post by FrontierPsych »

Joeri wrote: post #125
epistasis wrote: post #61

I'm surprised that this article doesn't even mention the ongoing, continual attacks on the civilian Ukrainian electrical grid, in a concerted effort to take it out with thousands of cruise missiles and loitering drones. Perhaps not all countries will be as determined as the Ukrainians are in their constant repairs, but even with half of their generation capability destroyed, and so many substations targeted, the effe…

I have a friend whose mom lived in zaporozhya until 2 weeks ago, and the rolling blackouts were the reason she finally fled the city, despite months of explosions. The blackouts were getting more severe, and when you live on the 11th floor with no elevator, no water, no heating, no way to warm food, life is very difficult.

For sure it depends on the circumstances. Being on an 11th floor of an apartment building would be difficult. I wouldn't want to live there because although it is apparently still there, I'd be afraid it would be a massive target for artillary.

So in places like that, sure, you'd want to move out. And hopefully other Ukrainians are taking people like her into their own homes, because otherwise, what would one do if they have nowhere else to go?

Re: How long would society last during a total grid collapse?

#305

Post by 2Gkashmiri »

selimthegrim wrote: post #288
2Gkashmiri wrote: post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

yeah, as my name suggests, i live in a place where "today", as in 23/11/2022 i have a 9 hour electricity cut "EVERYDAY" in near to 0C temperatures. It is winter and snowing most of the places. Heck, the places that are snowing get close to zero electricity for days and when it does come back, at best 3-6 hours. People adapt to living in harsh conditions. as you said, "creature comforts" take a hit but you don't just…

Have people started using kangri again?

yep

Re: How long would society last during a total grid collapse?

#306

Post by dicriseg »

snoopy_telex wrote: post #166
epistasis wrote: post #153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Russian war is actually one of the least political things in the US right now, there is great bi-partisan support, and it's hard to imagine anything else that garners such broad support from all but the most fringe of fringe (the left-right red-brown alliance against Ukraine is so tiny that it can barely be found). But it is a very timely issue. Maybe in a couple years, after it's no longer timely, he will dive i…

My experience differs. The right leaning members of my family strongly support Russia and the left leaning strongly support Ukraine. It’s caused a lot of strife in my family. And I don’t think the right folks feel like they’re on the fringe. They do watch a lot of Fox, but they’re not Q folks, afaik at least.

If they strongly support Russia, I’ll suggest to you that they aren’t just right-leaning.

Re: How long would society last during a total grid collapse?

#307

Post by vxNsr »

KptMarchewa wrote: post #219
vxNsr wrote: post #172

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Odd, I know lots of right folks and none support russia, they just don’t support sending more money to Ukraine, either bec they believe the accurate reports of widespread corruption (which Biden himself attested to 6 years ago) or bec they’re isolationist and don’t really believe our interventions have helped “spread freedom” anywhere. And would rather we dedicate our resources to bettering our own clearly failing co…

The thing is you can easily check that the funds are spend property: https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-docum... Also, nation united against aggressive, genocidal war does great to improve cohesion and trust, and remove low level corruption.

A similar list could be compiled by Russia for destroyed/captured Ukrainian equipment. This doesn’t negate the fact that there is rampant corruption throughout the entire Russian military.

Re: How long would society last during a total grid collapse?

#308

Post by P5fRxh5kUvp2th »

epistasis wrote: post #296
P5fRxh5kUvp2th wrote: post #276

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You mean such as the academic who spent his entire career studying the politics of the area?

That's an argument to authority, but there are many many more authorities that would disagree vehemently, and could back it up with specific statements. For example, Timothy Snyder, who is a historian specializing in the area, but really any sort of fair sampling would find that most Russian Studies professors would not be willing to uncritically repeat Kremlin propaganda like the "realist" school of international re…

yeah, no shit, I defer to someone who has spent their career studying the area.

That this even has to be defended says more about your mindset than any damnation of the person in question.

And as I've said already, I don't recall, nor do I think it's worth the time or the effort to figure it out, certainly not for you.

Re: How long would society last during a total grid collapse?

#309

Post by P5fRxh5kUvp2th »

reducesuffering wrote: post #287
P5fRxh5kUvp2th wrote: post #276

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You mean such as the academic who spent his entire career studying the politics of the area?

You think there is one single academic studying Russian geopolitics? Ok, I've seen an MD saying covid vaccines will give you AIDS. Must be true? One person's opinion doesn't make the truth.

^ link or it didn't happen.

Re: How long would society last during a total grid collapse?

#310

Post by firstSpeaker »

zikduruqe wrote: post #236
acidburnNSA wrote: post #17

A lot of old Cold War preparatory war game scenarios start with EMPs blanketing the continental US. It only takes a few (like 1) nuclear weapon detonations in thin atmosphere (a few dozen km up) where the primary heat transfer mechanism is radiative (vs. convective, conductive) to cause enough EMP to take out pretty much the entire continental US grid. The military is fully hardened against EMP. Civilian infrastructu…

I highly recommend reading One Second After by William R. Forstchen. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Second_After I used to teach and consult on various preparedness topics and people used to ask me what my favorite "survival manual" was. It is this book. TL;DR - 90% of the US population dies in 1 year.

Yep, this is indeed a good series to read. When I read that it felt as close to a reality of the outcome as it can get.
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