Earlier quoted context omitted.
For two parties to transact in dollars they need either to physically hold large amounts of dollars. Or have access to some shared ledger that is accounting system where transactions can happen. Say A, B, C account. A sells gold and get dollars from account B to account A. And now they can buy oil from owner of account C. But who owns and runs these accounts or the transactions between them? One option is SWIFT syste…
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Ghana plans to buy oil with gold instead of dollars
101–110 of 407 posts
Re: Ghana plans to buy oil with gold instead of dollars
#102Honest question: Can someone explain me why using gold instead of dollars to buy oil isn't the same as sell gold for dollars and use those dollars to buy oil?
Because there are no dollars involved. If they do as you suggest, at the start: A holds gold. B holds dollars. C holds oil. A trades B, gold for dollars. A holds dollars, B holds gold. A trades C, dollars for oil. A holds oil, C holds dollars. After your suggested trade result: A holds oil. B holds gold. C holds dollars. If there is no "middle man", party A gets oil, party C gets gold. Party B keeps their dollars. En…
Re: Ghana plans to buy oil with gold instead of dollars
#103We'll see the dominance of the USD erode in the next three decades is my prediction. Look at how successful Putin was in demanding payment for Russian oil in Rubles. It has propped up the Ruble enormously and its predicted collapse hasn't occurred. In fact it has rallied. I assure you that other nations have taken note and will take similar steps in the future. Other commodities may well be priced in local currencies…
So although it is possible that "we'll see the dominance of the USD erode in the next three decades", it is much less likely that "commodities [in general would] be priced in local currencies of the producing nations [following the example of Putin's Russia]". The problem with your prediction though is that it's boring - it's too easy to be true as phrased. For instance, if we see a new cold war divide into a China-focused world and a US-focused world, then the growth of whatever currency the China-focused world uses will necessarily result in decreased USD dominance. Or if not China, then India. Or who knows who. Or maybe the US will descend into civil war and someone else will pick up the mantle of world hegemon. Or the US will amicably divorce, and the Floridollar will dominate international trades.
So it's more likely that you'll be right for the wrong reason, than that you'll be right for the reasoning established in your post.
Re: Ghana plans to buy oil with gold instead of dollars
#104Interesting the pressure is increasing. More and more countries questioning why they need to base their foreign transaction on the US Dollar. Could this mounting unrest be as a result of the seeming inability of the US Federal bank in checking inflation of the US Dollar. Also, some of these Nations can no longer determine what benefit it is to them is using the US Dollar as their reserve currency and trading currency…
I think it’s more an issue of other countries seeing that the U.S. can just confiscate their dollar reserves if the US doesn’t agree with their sovereign actions. Those countries are choosing to divest from the mono world order which is crumbling. For a long but instructive discussion on current economic events check out this interview. https://youtu.be/cD_UcRtljDU
>sovereign actions
Nice euphemism for genocidal, imperialist war.
Re: Ghana plans to buy oil with gold instead of dollars
#105Earlier quoted context omitted.
Saudi Arabia isn't going off the USD. That would seriously undermine their relation with the U.S. and could even have them branded an antagonistic nation. The dominance of the USD is EXTREMELY important to the U.S. and I can assure you that Washington is even willing to wage war over it. But I believe the ball has already started rolling with Bitcoin and Russia's demand for payment in Rubles.
LOL Bitcoin is a joke, its down 65% against the dollar this year
Re: Ghana plans to buy oil with gold instead of dollars
#106Interesting the pressure is increasing. More and more countries questioning why they need to base their foreign transaction on the US Dollar. Could this mounting unrest be as a result of the seeming inability of the US Federal bank in checking inflation of the US Dollar. Also, some of these Nations can no longer determine what benefit it is to them is using the US Dollar as their reserve currency and trading currency…
Re: Ghana plans to buy oil with gold instead of dollars
#107Earlier quoted context omitted.
Do you think GDP is the critical factor for determining a global reserve currency? IMO, respect for property ownership rights, legal/judicial recourse, ubiquity of US banks, and political stability are large contributing factors that few other countries can compete with. China has a pretty checkered past regarding ownership rights for citizens who are critical of its leadership.
I suspect it's a prerequisite, though perhaps not the only one. I also suspect that political stability is more likely to favour China than the USA over the next few decades — it is very human for success to be followed by the assumption of indefatigability and that to be followed by fighting over who leads the nation, rather than continuing to focus on what actually made a nation dominant and how to keep it that way…
Re: Ghana plans to buy oil with gold instead of dollars
#108Earlier quoted context omitted.
Do you think GDP is the critical factor for determining a global reserve currency? IMO, respect for property ownership rights, legal/judicial recourse, ubiquity of US banks, and political stability are large contributing factors that few other countries can compete with. China has a pretty checkered past regarding ownership rights for citizens who are critical of its leadership.
I suspect it's a prerequisite, though perhaps not the only one. I also suspect that political stability is more likely to favour China than the USA over the next few decades — it is very human for success to be followed by the assumption of indefatigability and that to be followed by fighting over who leads the nation, rather than continuing to focus on what actually made a nation dominant and how to keep it that way…
That's a naive view of russia. Up to this day, one of the main tasks of russian army - as previously soviet - is potato harvest.
Re: Ghana plans to buy oil with gold instead of dollars
#109Earlier quoted context omitted.
Ghana GDP is 77.59 billion USD. That's almost 2 Twitters :) . Ghana is not triggering any chain reactions.
Ghana's GDP is flow while Twitter's valuation is stock.[1] Given that Twitter's EBITDA was $211mn, it is more accurate to say that Ghana's GDP is 368 Twitters. (Which also sounds crazy nevertheless.) [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stock_and_flow
Re: Ghana plans to buy oil with gold instead of dollars
#110Earlier quoted context omitted.
As for what happens next: de-globalisation I predict we'll see blocks forming up again, something like: - West (US+EU) - East (China+Russia) - India (India, Sri Lanka, Himalayan States, South China states) - Middle (Middle East+North Africa) - Latam (Central + South American States) One wild card IMO would be the rise of the Indian sphere of influence. I'll leave some room for India's remarkable ability to snatch def…
I agree with the general premise of your comment, that this is a small sign of the deglobalization which is _already_ under way. But, what are the UUUGE tailwinds benefiting India? India, even more so than China, seems likely to "get old before it gets rich." Its TFR is already below replacement and falling rapidly.
India ones are still over replaceability.