Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

How long would society last during a total grid collapse?

practical.engineering

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

261–270 of 310 posts

Re: How long would society last during a total grid collapse?

#261

Post by t-3 »

hef19898 wrote: post #212
epistasis wrote: post #61

I'm surprised that this article doesn't even mention the ongoing, continual attacks on the civilian Ukrainian electrical grid, in a concerted effort to take it out with thousands of cruise missiles and loitering drones. Perhaps not all countries will be as determined as the Ukrainians are in their constant repairs, but even with half of their generation capability destroyed, and so many substations targeted, the effe…

Despite real world examples constantly showing the opposite, from civil wars, famine, large scale disaster and all-out war, people still believe that somehow 3 weeks in the world turns into The Walking Dead or something. Not gonna happen, society in the 14th century survived the plague .

It's the effect of persistent long-term propaganda. No government ever will ever admit that society could survive without effective government.

Re: How long would society last during a total grid collapse?

#262

Post by marmadukester39 »

thaumasiotes wrote: post #222
pmontra wrote: post #217

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Future is hard to forecast but let me try. The USA de facto surrenders to Russia in the Ukraine war and Europe starts to buy gas from Russia again (if the USA can't protect us we have to buy protection somewhere else). Russia use European money to start buying European politicians again. Eventually they'll politically control all of Europe. Maybe not the UK. China gets East Asia because a retreating USA must be seen…

Are political control of all of Europe and East Asia (a term that refers to 4-5 countries...) things the US has now? Note that Wikipedia's statistics have China comprising just over 90% of the population of East Asia. In what possible world would China not be in control? By analogy to the Manchus, you'd need an invasion from Japan or, I guess, Korea, that was supported by the PLA.

Political control of Europe is not a thing the US has now, but a friendly climate, yes. The avoidance of leadership capture by Russian assets, more importantly, which keeps the climate more friendly.

Re: How long would society last during a total grid collapse?

#263

Post by 2Gkashmiri »

somedude895 wrote: post #251
2Gkashmiri wrote: post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

not to sound all propagandist but russia attacking ukraine infra is "bad" but NATO attacking iraq is "collateral damage".

The 2003 invasion of Iraq is very controversial, even in the West (thank god for free speech and freedom of press) and I'd imagine many people on Ukraine's side also didn't agree with the second Iraq war. Might be different in the US, but it's certainly the feeling I get in Europe, even though many also simply have no opinion on Iraq.

uh... the same freedom of speech that is currently wanting to skin assange alive for making public war crimes commited by americans and yet instead of taking action against the actual aggressors, the messenger is being charged. cool....

btw, what i meant to say was, "iraq invasion" as you put might be "controversial" but there was no blowback of them as is being done to russia. the EU just either let US do its thing or even joined their side so yeah, controversial is short selling it.

Iraq, afghanistan, libya.... on and on. the US leaves destruction in its wake and its "just controversial" but no sanctions or arming the opposite side.

Oh, also, yemen has been decimated by saudis for years now but because they happen to be US allies, everyone just turns a blind eye. but iran needs "revolution" and "ukraine needs to be saved from russia"..

i am saying the two narratives do not depend on the ground realities, if people die or live. It just depends on the narrative that the US wants to push. That may be fine for the US or EU but everyone else just remembers.

Re: How long would society last during a total grid collapse?

#264

Post by P5fRxh5kUvp2th »

mikewarot wrote: post #256
snoopy_telex wrote: post #166

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My experience differs. The right leaning members of my family strongly support Russia and the left leaning strongly support Ukraine. It’s caused a lot of strife in my family. And I don’t think the right folks feel like they’re on the fringe. They do watch a lot of Fox, but they’re not Q folks, afaik at least.

The narrative is that it was persistent NATO expansion after the end of the cold war that "forced" Russia into this. It's mostly a lie... but many Fox viewers believe it to be the whole truth.

Are you sure about that?

I've seen discussions from a specific professor going back years (long before the actual invasion) talking about the dangers of exactly that. After it happened this specific person (forget his name) then started talking about how it was a consequence of the things he had been talking about for years.

You can disagree with the guy, but he's an academic who apparently has an expertise in that area, and I question whether or not you're dismissing it due to your own political bubble rather than because there may be some truth to it.

Re: How long would society last during a total grid collapse?

#265

Post by epistasis »

f137 wrote: post #187
epistasis wrote: post #61

I'm surprised that this article doesn't even mention the ongoing, continual attacks on the civilian Ukrainian electrical grid, in a concerted effort to take it out with thousands of cruise missiles and loitering drones. Perhaps not all countries will be as determined as the Ukrainians are in their constant repairs, but even with half of their generation capability destroyed, and so many substations targeted, the effe…

Your Kyiv teacher is lucky. Blackouts vary a lot between regions and even within a single town. We have a distributed team and track blackouts in daytime, 8am-8pm. A couple of people had no blackouts so far whatsoever, a few had about 40 hours off out of 60 last workweek. The median is somewhere between 25-30. It is getting worse gradually.

Indeed, the class was cancelled this morning despite the valiant efforts of the teacher to find the combo of a connection plus electricity.

This will get worse as grid equipment spares run out too.

Re: How long would society last during a total grid collapse?

#266

Post by epistasis »

P5fRxh5kUvp2th wrote: post #264
mikewarot wrote: post #256

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The narrative is that it was persistent NATO expansion after the end of the cold war that "forced" Russia into this. It's mostly a lie... but many Fox viewers believe it to be the whole truth.

Are you sure about that? I've seen discussions from a specific professor going back years (long before the actual invasion) talking about the dangers of exactly that. After it happened this specific person (forget his name) then started talking about how it was a consequence of the things he had been talking about for years. You can disagree with the guy, but he's an academic who apparently has an expertise in that a…

Absolute nonsense, Russia will invade what they call "little Russias" because they believe they are superior and that the people in those land belong to them, and that the resources belong to them. NATO has nothing to do with Russia's urge to invade and oppress other cultures, but NATO is a way for such countries to defend themselves. So if a professor claims to have expertise and not understand these basic facts that all former USSR states understand, then the professor is just repeating Russian propaganda.

For example, on national TV in Russia this week, they are laying the groundwork to invade Kazakhstan right now, claiming that they need the uranium for Rosatom and that the "same nazi process in Ukraine could happen in Kazakhstan," meaning that the President of Kazakhstan is refusing to be a puppet of Putin lately.

These dynamics are extremely clear to anyone who spends even a small amount of time talking to someone from Estonia, Latvia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Georgia, Chechnya, etc. But those voices are almost never heard, and instead Russian propaganda gets the air time.

Re: How long would society last during a total grid collapse?

#267

Post by epistasis »

Sakos wrote: post #240
pmontra wrote: post #185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn't at least a part of those billions going back to the USA as purchases of American weapons? They are subsidies to American workers. Example from https://www.defensenews.com/congress/budget/2022/11/15/white... > The $21.7 billion in Pentagon funding is “for equipment for Ukraine, replenishment of Department of Defense stocks and for continued military, intelligence and other defense support,” according to a summar…

It's so weird to me. I thought this was a part of MAGA. The world being dependent on the US military industrial complex is a core part of how the US was in any way considered to be great. You'd think it'd be a good thing to realize how good US weapons are and for the PR that is being created.

There are lots of dark money flows from Russia to these politicians, at least for any that I have bothered to check. Fortunately they are extremely fringe at the moment. But it is far far cheaper to buy these politicians than it is to build a fighter jet, far far cheaper to buy social media influence and campaigns than it is to buy cruise missiles.

Russia's propaganda machine was caught off guard because Putin grievously miscalculated in ability to take over Ukraine, and kept the invasion so secret that there was barely any propaganda. But the propaganda campaign is kicking up again, and you can see it in some of the ghost comments on HN, even.

Re: How long would society last during a total grid collapse?

#268

Post by Melting_Harps »

snowpid wrote: post #209
paganel wrote: post #177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You need capital to be able to generate "your own power", the same goes for storing it. Most of the people from the rural parts of Eastern Europe don't have access to that capital and most probably will never have, for the simple reason that they are (relatively) quite poor.

I doubt it. I suspect they're thinking of bank loans, but resourceful fintech already have solutions for getting by without a loan. I see similar business models in Africa, so poverty is not an argument against it.

> I doubt it. I suspect they're thinking of bank loans, but resourceful fintech already have solutions for getting by without a loan. I see similar business models in Africa, so poverty is not an argument against it.

UA24 is prime example, the crowdsoured funds have helped disburse funds collected in both fiat and bitcoin (after a massive influx from various crypto communities early on in the war) for on the ground purposes; Zelensky just got confirmation of the EU and US funds last night and spoke [0] of a website tat was launched for centers for citizens to go that will have access to heat and electricity throughout the country in pharmacies and grocery stores as the shelling continues by Russia and keeps causin blackouts (Russia struck again today causing blackouts all the way to Moldova) .

It's possible, and i really hope such a thing never happens anywhere else, but their is a reason why Bitcoin was the prefered way of getting funds into the country when the UA central bank put capital controls on the first day of invasion: BTC was there since the Maidan Revolution in 2013 and had been battle tested, so when the Russian invasion happened it was battle tested and it was deployed to start doing evac and other emergency services that continue to this day.

In short, despite the inept bleating from so many in these circles: Bitcoin (the network) isn't solely the affectation of techbros and grifters in Japan or the Bahamas, it was battle hardened in conflicts and environmental catastrophe.

I fear, however, that despite these microloans geopolitics plays a much bigger role in getting infrastructure put in places like Africa since China has been exercising it's soft=power colonialsm policy for decades in order to pay off despots and have access to rare-earths. It's just another example of how the technological side of things may have been resolved, bu things like kleptocracy and nepotism prevent it from having the impact that it can and should have at addressing an issue.

0: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vCGWEQIrieY

Re: How long would society last during a total grid collapse?

#269

Post by mikro2nd »

sw104 wrote: post #231
mikro2nd wrote: post #168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As someone who lives "out in the country" I can tell you from experience that city people will walk right past a field full of food without even recognising that it is food. They're too used to seeing the polished, buffed and packaged thing that ends up in the supermarket.

That sounds quite harsh. People that live in cities aren't stupid.

Not stupid, they just don't know what a lot of food looks like before it's been processed into food. Not their fault, just a fact.

Re: How long would society last during a total grid collapse?

#270

Post by culi »

piyushpr134 wrote: post #90

Coming from India and as someone who has lived, growing up (in the 90s), without power for hours and days...trust me you are going to be deeply inconvenienced but not going to die. We had hand fans (hot climate) and fire in large bowl shaped vessels (when cold). Nights without power are spent sleeping on terrace. We had oil lamps for light in the evening. Most night activity would siege by 8pm max to wake up early at…

> large bowl shaped vessels

Would you happen to know what these are called (in any language)?

> No fridge (fresh food ftw)

Probably easier to say this when you live in the tropics. There's a reason humans are the only primates to make it outside of the tropics. Winter ain't easy! You'd definitely have to plan ahead and prepare your acorn flour and plant your tubers in places with cold winters

Post reply on HN