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How long would society last during a total grid collapse?

practical.engineering

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Re: How long would society last during a total grid collapse?

#241

Post by YeBanKo »

nonrandomstring wrote: post #235
Markoff wrote: post #230

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think cash would hold much value, there would be insane inflation due to hardly any value of cash and extreme demand after limited resources, cash introduction would be fine after maybe a year when people would get used to live without grid, but in first weeks/months it would lose all the value.

Have we got any historical data or decent models? I guess the problem with this is there's no precedent to formulate a null hypothesis against. If inflation was a factor it would affect digital systems linked to the same currency equally. Cash would still win out on availability. My feeling is that, in the absence of digital systems, physical cash would in fact gain value as a tangible asset intermediate to barter of…

> Have we got any historical data or decent models?

Yes, Ukraine is the recent example. Cash still worked in occupied territories, that were cut off from communications. It is the only way to conduct transactions, even with inflated costs.

Re: How long would society last during a total grid collapse?

#242

Post by concordDance »

snoopy_telex wrote: post #166
epistasis wrote: post #153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Russian war is actually one of the least political things in the US right now, there is great bi-partisan support, and it's hard to imagine anything else that garners such broad support from all but the most fringe of fringe (the left-right red-brown alliance against Ukraine is so tiny that it can barely be found). But it is a very timely issue. Maybe in a couple years, after it's no longer timely, he will dive i…

My experience differs. The right leaning members of my family strongly support Russia and the left leaning strongly support Ukraine. It’s caused a lot of strife in my family. And I don’t think the right folks feel like they’re on the fringe. They do watch a lot of Fox, but they’re not Q folks, afaik at least.

What in particular do they support? Russia invading Ukraine? Russia keeping Crimea? Russia conquering and annexing Ukraine?

Re: How long would society last during a total grid collapse?

#243

Post by Sakos »

paganel wrote: post #180
throwaway742 wrote: post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have a friend who works for a major power company in the US. They told me there are severe supply chain issues that are making it difficult to order new replacement parts for electrical infrastructure. As critical infrastructure they do have stockpiles of replacement parts, but they are limited. I wonder how long Ukraine can sustain these repairs.

One of the major issues with the Ukraine power infrastructure is that it was set up back in the day by the, well, Soviets, which means most of the equipment dates from Soviet times, which also means most of the repairs/replacement work can only be done by factories located in the former USSR. Most of those factories are now located in present-day Russia, which is where the major problem comes from. Speaking of this,…

For an example I looked into Poland: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Be%C5%82chat%C3%B3w_Power_St...

Apparently to some degree they've been modernizing through the help of Western energy companies like Alstom. I have no idea how widespread this is though.

Re: How long would society last during a total grid collapse?

#244

Post by concordDance »

Victerius wrote: post #77
TheAceOfHearts wrote: post #40

In Puerto Rico a few months back we lost power and water due to the hurricane. Living without power and water, even for a few days starts to have a severe psychological impact. You don't realize how much of a luxury and a blessing it is to have clean running water until it's no longer available. You can't flush the toilet, freshen up, shower, wash your dishes, or wash your clothes. If you don't have a backup power ge…

I regard attacks on critical civilian infrastructure as strategically indistinguishable from nuclear attacks, and deserving of a similar response. Edit: Why is this being downvoted. I'm right. One will kill 100k people instantly. The other will send them back to the Middle Ages. The former group might actually be the luckier one.

They might be downvoting you to say "your opinion is uninteresting and irrelevant"

Re: How long would society last during a total grid collapse?

#245

Post by lettergram »

duckmysick wrote: post #191
lettergram wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If I recall correctly, in that situation we’d expect a 90% fatality in 1 year. https://energsustainsoc.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s... People thought I was nuts in 2021 when the lockdowns continued and I bought enough tools to survive such an event. I figured, people aren’t working, things gonna break. Lol For reference, some basics would go a long way — survival straw to filter water, 3 month emergency food…

> How many people can? How many know how to preserve meat for long periods without a freezer? How many know how to grow food and store it? I do. It doesn't matter. I'm under no illusion I'd be able do defend myself and my food when I'm outnumbered and outgunned, being on alert 24/7. All it takes is one mistake and it's game over.

That’s the reality… become friends with your neighbors and if anything bad happens you can work together. Good to do in any case.

I also don’t think people will be as violent after the first 3-4 weeks without water or food. Simply put, those who collaborate have a higher likelihood of survival. There’s only so much you can steal.

If / when this situation arises be prepared and it’ll give you a buffer to survive longer. Have the skills to keep surviving after that and make friends who do as well. Make a plan to meet said friends. That’s really all you can do. It increases your odds

Re: How long would society last during a total grid collapse?

#246

Post by concordDance »

armchairhacker wrote: post #196
dylan604 wrote: post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What are you going to do, nuke the hurricanes?

If you explode a nuclear bomb in the eye of a hurricane does it make the hurricane stop?

https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/C5c.html

Basically a hurricane is already expending a megaton of tnt equivalent every couple of minutes so the nuke does diddly.

Re: How long would society last during a total grid collapse?

#247

Post by concordDance »

Markoff wrote: post #228
Victerius wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I regard attacks on critical civilian infrastructure as strategically indistinguishable from nuclear attacks, and deserving of a similar response. Edit: Why is this being downvoted. I'm right. One will kill 100k people instantly. The other will send them back to the Middle Ages. The former group might actually be the luckier one.

You are downvoted because you are equaling nuclear attack with no power. One is incredibly difficult to fix with permanent effects, other is minor nuisance and not that big of a deal to fix or even switch to life without power grid, you can just have own wind turbine/solar/hydro if you really need the power. Also TIL Middle ages were like 100-150years ago, in some countries just decades ago, I'd say you could get by…

> One is incredibly difficult to fix with permanent effects

Not very significant permanent effects most of the time. E.g. a million people are happily living in Hiroshima right now.

Re: How long would society last during a total grid collapse?

#248

Post by dismalpedigree »

throwaway742 wrote: post #132
piyushpr134 wrote: post #90

Coming from India and as someone who has lived, growing up (in the 90s), without power for hours and days...trust me you are going to be deeply inconvenienced but not going to die. We had hand fans (hot climate) and fire in large bowl shaped vessels (when cold). Nights without power are spent sleeping on terrace. We had oil lamps for light in the evening. Most night activity would siege by 8pm max to wake up early at…

You can't exactly light a fire if you live in the middle of a large apartment complex.

You CAN. You just really shouldn’t.

Re: How long would society last during a total grid collapse?

#249

Post by lettergram »

pc86 wrote: post #96
lettergram wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If I recall correctly, in that situation we’d expect a 90% fatality in 1 year. https://energsustainsoc.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s... People thought I was nuts in 2021 when the lockdowns continued and I bought enough tools to survive such an event. I figured, people aren’t working, things gonna break. Lol For reference, some basics would go a long way — survival straw to filter water, 3 month emergency food…

Where did you learn these skills? Hell I barely know how to change the oil in my car because I never had someone teach me and only recently got to a place in my life where I realized that sort of thing is important. I'm making headway, slowly but surely, but something like growing enough food for a family or acquiring meat, let alone preserving it, might as well be trying to get to the moon.

I think everyone’s in their own situation. Easy stuff:

1. Start a garden this year. Learn the basics. A big garden is just the same principles at a larger scale.

2. Just start doing everything yourself. Go on YouTube and watch how to do X and do it. It’ll build general knowledge of how things work. Saves money, builds confidence, generally good skills regardless.

3. There are survivalist camps if you’re hard core (don’t think it’s necessary, but some people might like it idk)

4. Start curing / pickling your own food. Some simple examples: but everything from the store to make salsa and try that. Make your own bacon (very good) by buying pork belly. Country ham can be delicious and fairly straight forward. Just be sure to follow guides. The USDA publishes guides on canning for instance

Re: How long would society last during a total grid collapse?

#250

Post by concordDance »

JasonFruit wrote: post #108
Victerius wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I regard attacks on critical civilian infrastructure as strategically indistinguishable from nuclear attacks, and deserving of a similar response. Edit: Why is this being downvoted. I'm right. One will kill 100k people instantly. The other will send them back to the Middle Ages. The former group might actually be the luckier one.

I'll bite: the standard response to a nuclear attack ends human life on the planet. Nothing — not even a nuclear attack — justifies that response.

You're overestimating how much damage a few thousand nuclear bombs can do. Even just targeting every big city in the world you'd struggle to kill a billion people directly, though the aftermath may bring the total that high.
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