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How long would society last during a total grid collapse?

practical.engineering

171–180 of 310 posts

Re: How long would society last during a total grid collapse?

#171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Russian war is actually one of the least political things in the US right now, there is great bi-partisan support, and it's hard to imagine anything else that garners such broad support from all but the most fringe of fringe (the left-right red-brown alliance against Ukraine is so tiny that it can barely be found). But it is a very timely issue. Maybe in a couple years, after it's no longer timely, he will dive i…

My experience differs. The right leaning members of my family strongly support Russia and the left leaning strongly support Ukraine. It’s caused a lot of strife in my family. And I don’t think the right folks feel like they’re on the fringe. They do watch a lot of Fox, but they’re not Q folks, afaik at least.

I honestly can’t comprehend how it is possible to support Russia in the US after the Cold War and Putin. I literally have a blank space in my mind when thinking about that.

Re: How long would society last during a total grid collapse?

#172

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Russian war is actually one of the least political things in the US right now, there is great bi-partisan support, and it's hard to imagine anything else that garners such broad support from all but the most fringe of fringe (the left-right red-brown alliance against Ukraine is so tiny that it can barely be found). But it is a very timely issue. Maybe in a couple years, after it's no longer timely, he will dive i…

My experience differs. The right leaning members of my family strongly support Russia and the left leaning strongly support Ukraine. It’s caused a lot of strife in my family. And I don’t think the right folks feel like they’re on the fringe. They do watch a lot of Fox, but they’re not Q folks, afaik at least.

Odd, I know lots of right folks and none support russia, they just don’t support sending more money to Ukraine, either bec they believe the accurate reports of widespread corruption (which Biden himself attested to 6 years ago) or bec they’re isolationist and don’t really believe our interventions have helped “spread freedom” anywhere. And would rather we dedicate our resources to bettering our own clearly failing country.

Re: How long would society last during a total grid collapse?

#173

I'm surprised that this article doesn't even mention the ongoing, continual attacks on the civilian Ukrainian electrical grid, in a concerted effort to take it out with thousands of cruise missiles and loitering drones. Perhaps not all countries will be as determined as the Ukrainians are in their constant repairs, but even with half of their generation capability destroyed, and so many substations targeted, the effe…

I have a friend who works for a major power company in the US. They told me there are severe supply chain issues that are making it difficult to order new replacement parts for electrical infrastructure. As critical infrastructure they do have stockpiles of replacement parts, but they are limited. I wonder how long Ukraine can sustain these repairs.

This is a topic that’s come up before, pre war. One can hope some of those help packages will be used to bring up grid equipment factories.

Re: How long would society last during a total grid collapse?

#174
post #171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My experience differs. The right leaning members of my family strongly support Russia and the left leaning strongly support Ukraine. It’s caused a lot of strife in my family. And I don’t think the right folks feel like they’re on the fringe. They do watch a lot of Fox, but they’re not Q folks, afaik at least.

I honestly can’t comprehend how it is possible to support Russia in the US after the Cold War and Putin. I literally have a blank space in my mind when thinking about that.

I agree and my guess is this “support of russia” is really just opposition to sending billions to Ukraine. Some might argue that’s the same thing, but to many on the right it’s not.

Re: How long would society last during a total grid collapse?

#175

I'm surprised that this article doesn't even mention the ongoing, continual attacks on the civilian Ukrainian electrical grid, in a concerted effort to take it out with thousands of cruise missiles and loitering drones. Perhaps not all countries will be as determined as the Ukrainians are in their constant repairs, but even with half of their generation capability destroyed, and so many substations targeted, the effe…

All good points. A small note: there's yet a many orders of magnitude difference between the whole power consumption, or even only residential power consumption, and the storage available in distributed sources. Even projecting ahead a few years and counting what's likely to be built. I'd guess between 3 and 5 zeroes, in most densely populated cities. If anything, I think the bulk of the flexibility will come from th…

The issue with those was that they were indeed very ecologically dirty, especially the lignite mines from Gorj. You can actually see the devastation that they have brought on the ecosystem even from satellite images [1]. I agree though, if one takes a step back and looks at the whole thing (i.e. if you add the socio-economic conditions) this was a very bad decision.

I personally don't think renewables will be able to fill the gap for us. For one thing, transporting all the wind-generated power from the likes of Dobruja to Western Romania and Transylvania using existing power-transport infrastructure is no easy task. Second, I don't see solar taking over, for the simple reason that the fields from Southern Romania which it would best to use for such task are of greater use to agriculture (from an economics pov, that is).

On a more general note, we, Romanians, already have past history related to this, not a successful one at that. I'm talking of the period after the 1970s oil-shock crisis and of the '80s in their entirety, when the then government was very aware of the energy problem and was also very actively trying to tackle it and, in a way, solve it. That's why the discourse that we now hear from the West is in many ways familiar to us Romanians (only cars with odd numbers which should be allowed travel during weekends, energy "rationing" etc), i.e. because we have been in that place before them (and failed).

There are several books from that period who explain the problem in detail and which also write about possible solutions. Most of them are from Editura Politica, such as Energy in a finite world [2], published in 1983, but one of the best, imo, is this one: Energy, whereto? [3], published in 1978, a book which has a very comprehensive list of almost all of the solutions that were available back then. It's very interesting that they also talk about shale gas, and about how it's not a recommended solution because it generates mini-earthquakes (they might have also mentioned the heavy water-use as a negative, I don't remember exactly).

Of course, when the mini-earthquakes did indeed happen in the early 2010s when we try to extract shale-gas in Eastern Romania the powers that be all acted surprised, like "how could all of this have happened?". It's not like there had been actual books written about the subject 30 years prior by people who most probably were still around in one way or another. Which would bring me to one of the most important problems we now have, i.e. the lack of specialists on the subject, but this post is already getting too long.

[1] https://www.google.com/maps/@44.8953743,23.1365373,18333m/da...

[2] https://www.targulcartii.ro/wolf-hafele/energia-intr-o-lume-...

[3] https://www.targulcartii.ro/i-popescu/energia-incotro-scrisu...

Re: How long would society last during a total grid collapse?

#176

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I regard attacks on critical civilian infrastructure as strategically indistinguishable from nuclear attacks, and deserving of a similar response. Edit: Why is this being downvoted. I'm right. One will kill 100k people instantly. The other will send them back to the Middle Ages. The former group might actually be the luckier one.

I'll bite: the standard response to a nuclear attack ends human life on the planet. Nothing — not even a nuclear attack — justifies that response.

> the standard response to a nuclear attack ends human life on the planet.

No, it really does not. Mutually assured destruction - especially with current amount of nuclear weapons, which is an order of magnitude less than at the peak of cold war - means unacceptable level of casualties on both sides, however, even an all out launch-all-nukes NATO vs Russia war wouldn't even touch the regions where majority of human population lives. Sure, it would be an extremely horrific genocidal event, I personally would die, but even reducing population by half (to 1974 level) is nowhere close to "ends human life on the planet".

Re: How long would society last during a total grid collapse?

#177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All good points. A small note: there's yet a many orders of magnitude difference between the whole power consumption, or even only residential power consumption, and the storage available in distributed sources. Even projecting ahead a few years and counting what's likely to be built. I'd guess between 3 and 5 zeroes, in most densely populated cities. If anything, I think the bulk of the flexibility will come from th…

The densely populated cities are going to be the hardest to transition - but in rural and suburban areas it may already be cheaper to generate and store your own power than to get it from the grid, most of the year

You need capital to be able to generate "your own power", the same goes for storing it. Most of the people from the rural parts of Eastern Europe don't have access to that capital and most probably will never have, for the simple reason that they are (relatively) quite poor.

Re: How long would society last during a total grid collapse?

#179

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think that last line is really the crux of it. Most of us would survive a “collapse” event exactly as long as it would take for people to get desperate. After that, all the batteries and canned food in the world will do you no good if you don’t have a remote and defensible location, ammunition, and lots of training. I have none of the above, so fingers crossed!

All my guns and ammo got lost in a tragic boating accident.

You really shouldn't hunt fish by rifle.

Re: How long would society last during a total grid collapse?

#180

I'm surprised that this article doesn't even mention the ongoing, continual attacks on the civilian Ukrainian electrical grid, in a concerted effort to take it out with thousands of cruise missiles and loitering drones. Perhaps not all countries will be as determined as the Ukrainians are in their constant repairs, but even with half of their generation capability destroyed, and so many substations targeted, the effe…

I have a friend who works for a major power company in the US. They told me there are severe supply chain issues that are making it difficult to order new replacement parts for electrical infrastructure. As critical infrastructure they do have stockpiles of replacement parts, but they are limited. I wonder how long Ukraine can sustain these repairs.

One of the major issues with the Ukraine power infrastructure is that it was set up back in the day by the, well, Soviets, which means most of the equipment dates from Soviet times, which also means most of the repairs/replacement work can only be done by factories located in the former USSR. Most of those factories are now located in present-day Russia, which is where the major problem comes from.

Speaking of this, I'm not sure how the three Baltic states handle this. Granted, they're way smaller compared to Ukraine and they had at least 20 years (since their NATO accession) to try and untangle themselves from all that, but until now I haven't seen any article written on this subject.

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