How long would society last during a total grid collapse? • Hacker News Board

Re: How long would society last during a total grid collapse?

#151

Post by franciscop » Wed, Nov 23, 2022, 6:33 AM UTC

In Japan there are 4 major natural disasters that occur on a semi-regular basis (earthquakes + tsunamis, typhoons + floods) so the society is fairly prepared for prolonged blackouts, even if there hasn't really been a major blackout for a while since the gvmt has also been preparing for those heavily.

People would have at least a stock of water bottles, and I've heard as a recommendation if a typhoon is coming to fill your bath as well to use as gray water (flushing, washing yourself). I believe that's also why most families also have a small gas stove (with gas canisters), the common usage is usually to have a small party dinner with the stove for cooking in the dinner table, but it's also very useful in case of blackouts and you can probably survive eating cooked rice+whatever you find for few weeks if needed. I don't know if people store other foods (cans, etc) for emergencies, I should probably inform myself a bit better.

While Japan hasn't been close at all of a major blackout disaster like this for a long time (AFAIK), I cannot imagine how quickly e.g. Tokyo could get into chaos if there's a major prolonged food, electricity or water disruption.

Re: How long would society last during a total grid collapse?

#152

Post by chii » Wed, Nov 23, 2022, 6:34 AM UTC

monero-xmr wrote: post #146

2Gkashmiri wrote: post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

not to sound all propagandist but russia attacking ukraine infra is "bad" but NATO attacking iraq is "collateral damage".

Similarly I do not like authoritarians and therefore feel very bad for North Korean citizens. However I don’t understand why they are not allowed (or Iran, or any country) to build their own nuclear weapons. Many countries have nukes - what is their right to have them? Shouldn’t every country have the right to mutually assured destruction? I wish nukes would go away, but morally speaking if one country can have them…

> Shouldn’t every country have the right to mutually assured destruction?

not really. If you didn't already have nukes, but your regime is much against the west, i'd argue that it is the right thing for the west to deny it from them. I am attaching no moral argument to this - simply a practical, utilitarian argument.

The reason russia has free reign to invade ukraine is _because_ they have nukes. Iraq invaded Kuwait just the same, but was pressed back in a war - imagine if they did have nukes; it would mean that Iraq could've acted with impunity, and they'd control all of the oil resources that was Kuwaits'.

Re: How long would society last during a total grid collapse?

#153

Post by epistasis » Wed, Nov 23, 2022, 6:35 AM UTC

snoopy_telex wrote: post #150

epistasis wrote: post #61

I'm surprised that this article doesn't even mention the ongoing, continual attacks on the civilian Ukrainian electrical grid, in a concerted effort to take it out with thousands of cruise missiles and loitering drones. Perhaps not all countries will be as determined as the Ukrainians are in their constant repairs, but even with half of their generation capability destroyed, and so many substations targeted, the effe…

> I'm surprised that this article doesn't even mention the ongoing, continual attacks on the civilian Ukrainian electrical grid, in a concerted effort to take it out with thousands of cruise missiles and loitering drones. I would guess that it was an intentional decision to avoid. Grady goes to great lengths to prevent anything political in his videos, and the Ukrainian war happens to be politically charged in Americ…

The Russian war is actually one of the least political things in the US right now, there is great bi-partisan support, and it's hard to imagine anything else that garners such broad support from all but the most fringe of fringe (the left-right red-brown alliance against Ukraine is so tiny that it can barely be found).

But it is a very timely issue. Maybe in a couple years, after it's no longer timely, he will dive into it a bit more, such as with the Oroville dam failure, when there's a lot more solid retrospective data to look at.

Re: How long would society last during a total grid collapse?

#154

Post by monero-xmr » Wed, Nov 23, 2022, 6:37 AM UTC

chii wrote: post #152

monero-xmr wrote: post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Similarly I do not like authoritarians and therefore feel very bad for North Korean citizens. However I don’t understand why they are not allowed (or Iran, or any country) to build their own nuclear weapons. Many countries have nukes - what is their right to have them? Shouldn’t every country have the right to mutually assured destruction? I wish nukes would go away, but morally speaking if one country can have them…

> Shouldn’t every country have the right to mutually assured destruction? not really. If you didn't already have nukes, but your regime is much against the west, i'd argue that it is the right thing for the west to deny it from them. I am attaching no moral argument to this - simply a practical, utilitarian argument. The reason russia has free reign to invade ukraine is _because_ they have nukes. Iraq invaded Kuwait…

I agree from a western perspective. In a power struggle of west vs. various eastern alliances, it is in the west’s interest to prevent the spread of nukes.

From a plain and simple moral perspective, IMO every country has the right to build them. Preventing that is about what team you are on rather than morals.

Re: How long would society last during a total grid collapse?

#155

Post by [deleted] » Wed, Nov 23, 2022, 6:38 AM UTC

Calvin02 wrote: post #98

piyushpr134 wrote: post #90

Coming from India and as someone who has lived, growing up (in the 90s), without power for hours and days...trust me you are going to be deeply inconvenienced but not going to die. We had hand fans (hot climate) and fire in large bowl shaped vessels (when cold). Nights without power are spent sleeping on terrace. We had oil lamps for light in the evening. Most night activity would siege by 8pm max to wake up early at…

I think you're underestimating the resilience that people and systems have built up in countries where power is unreliable. For example, I'd be willing to bet that most household don't even have candles or a battery operated flashlight. When power has been nearly 100% reliable for as long as you've been alive, there's no reason for you to worry about those things and you don't build that resilience. Someone in Alaska…

[deleted]

Re: How long would society last during a total grid collapse?

#156

Post by 2Gkashmiri » Wed, Nov 23, 2022, 6:40 AM UTC

chii wrote: post #152

monero-xmr wrote: post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Similarly I do not like authoritarians and therefore feel very bad for North Korean citizens. However I don’t understand why they are not allowed (or Iran, or any country) to build their own nuclear weapons. Many countries have nukes - what is their right to have them? Shouldn’t every country have the right to mutually assured destruction? I wish nukes would go away, but morally speaking if one country can have them…

> Shouldn’t every country have the right to mutually assured destruction? not really. If you didn't already have nukes, but your regime is much against the west, i'd argue that it is the right thing for the west to deny it from them. I am attaching no moral argument to this - simply a practical, utilitarian argument. The reason russia has free reign to invade ukraine is _because_ they have nukes. Iraq invaded Kuwait…

>but your regime is much against the west,

flip it over. west is against you so why should you submit to THEIR moral argument of denying YOU of nukes when they themselves have it?

Re: How long would society last during a total grid collapse?

#157

Post by franciscop » Wed, Nov 23, 2022, 6:44 AM UTC

birksherty wrote: post #149

piyushpr134 wrote: post #90

Coming from India and as someone who has lived, growing up (in the 90s), without power for hours and days...trust me you are going to be deeply inconvenienced but not going to die. We had hand fans (hot climate) and fire in large bowl shaped vessels (when cold). Nights without power are spent sleeping on terrace. We had oil lamps for light in the evening. Most night activity would siege by 8pm max to wake up early at…

Obviously, people would not die. What was the expectation? That we will die within a day after no power? Electricity is not human's natural basic need like water and oxygen. But civilised life will be extremely terrible, society will collapse, that's the story.

As explained in the video, people can definitely die after just a day without electricity if not prepared: medicines that need refrigeration, connected to a machine for life support, freezing/heating to death (people do die in major heatwaves/blizzards regularly), etc.

Sure those are usually not "guys in their 20s-30s" that is the majority demography of HN (I'm not saying everyone ofc...), but there's a lot of people a few steps from dying that a blackout could make them tip over.

Re: How long would society last during a total grid collapse?

#158

Post by alkonaut » Wed, Nov 23, 2022, 6:50 AM UTC

socialismisok wrote: post #139

Indefinitely. Unless you have a very narrow definition of society. People forget that things like industrialization and capitalism are very recent inventions, and throughout our species history we've had many many different ways of organizing ourselves. Heck, the society of the 1970s is pretty radically different than today. But I'm surprised to see fertilizer production not listed. Ammonia fertilizer is whole intege…

The useful definition of society is “society” here is “society as we know it”.

So, how long until there is widespread civil unrest and loss of life.

I’d say about a week, maybe less, depending on the location and scope of the outage. Clean water will quickly be a problem.

Re: How long would society last during a total grid collapse?

#159

Post by alkonaut » Wed, Nov 23, 2022, 6:54 AM UTC

groffee wrote: post #6

I think everyone should turn off their power for a couple of hours (when convenient) just to see if and how well they'd manage. Because it's so easy to become reliant on something without realizing that it could go. Powers gone off? Guess I'll put the kettle on and make some tea while I wait - no power. It's got a bit dark - put the light on. Listen to spotify? No songs downloaded and no data etc etc. And that's not…

The water is the problem. There isn’t any practical way to store more than about a week’s worth. People can easily keep warm and store food for a month but it’s not going to help if the water runs out after a week.

Re: How long would society last during a total grid collapse?

#160

Post by xavxav » Wed, Nov 23, 2022, 7:00 AM UTC

throwaway742 wrote: post #133

eek2121 wrote: post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Verizon is my absolute mad-lad hero in NJ. All of our towers had Natural Gas generators keeping the towers alive during Hurricane Sandy. I lost power and land-based internet, cellular internet and phone calls were alive and well thanks to those generators. Kudos to whatever NG company they used as well.

One thing that stood out to me in this video is that he claimed natural gas infrastructure can't run without electricity. It would seem obvious to me that you would have natural gas powered generators capable of sustaining the gas infrastructure.

I think this is what’s usually referred to as a “blackstart capacity”, and normally grid operators pay/ensure that certain operators maintain that capability.

The issue is that I imagine that just keeping an idle natural gas generator large enough for your pipeline + shipping terminal + whatever is not a trivial cost.