How long would society last during a total grid collapse? • Hacker News Board

Re: How long would society last during a total grid collapse?

#141

Post by kQq9oHeAz6wLLS » Wed, Nov 23, 2022, 6:18 AM UTC

el_benhameen wrote: post #79

rnk wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At my cabin I have starlink, limited solar power and a generator with propane that comes on (power goes out a lot). Eventually I'll run out of propane and food (everyone has some emergency food supply for a few weeks at their cabin, right?), but I wonder how long I'd last with internet plus short trips in my electric car? I never planned for a post-gas future independent of the grid. Starlink relies on starlink downl…

I think that last line is really the crux of it. Most of us would survive a “collapse” event exactly as long as it would take for people to get desperate. After that, all the batteries and canned food in the world will do you no good if you don’t have a remote and defensible location, ammunition, and lots of training. I have none of the above, so fingers crossed!

All my guns and ammo got lost in a tragic boating accident.

Re: How long would society last during a total grid collapse?

#142

Post by Milo0841 » Wed, Nov 23, 2022, 6:19 AM UTC

gjsman-1000 wrote: post #42

quacked wrote: post #39

This is one of those situations where there are no backups, and no one has any plans to make any backups. A power outage disaster-hardened country has a populace that's deeply knowledgeable about self-governance, organized combat, agriculture, medicine, sanitation, power generation, engineering, textiles, supply logistics, and construction. If the citizens of a western country like the US somehow earned the free time…

My family jokes that, while everyone stocks up on “survival” products… cigarettes and alcohol will probably be in high demand. Got video games, maybe some solar power (just enough for a TV and a Switch)? Parents will want those to keep the kids sane. Got Blu-rays, DVDs? When people can’t stream, you might get some good resources for them. Got a PC with some offline CAD software? Makes planning making things out of wo…

Antibiotics and oxycodone.

Re: How long would society last during a total grid collapse?

#143

Post by epistasis » Wed, Nov 23, 2022, 6:21 AM UTC

vkou wrote: post #134

epistasis wrote: post #61

I'm surprised that this article doesn't even mention the ongoing, continual attacks on the civilian Ukrainian electrical grid, in a concerted effort to take it out with thousands of cruise missiles and loitering drones. Perhaps not all countries will be as determined as the Ukrainians are in their constant repairs, but even with half of their generation capability destroyed, and so many substations targeted, the effe…

> I'm surprised that this article doesn't even mention the ongoing, continual attacks on the civilian Ukrainian electrical grid, in a concerted effort to take it out with thousands of cruise missiles and loitering drones. It doesn't have to, because the past 83 years has proven, over and over again that strategic bombing does not work . [1] And so far, this war is once again, proving that same point. The purpose of t…

Agreed on your points with regard to waging war.

But with regards to destroying an electrical grid, it would be a very topical intro to the idea. And there's some interesting info, in that destroying a grid is proving to be much harder than one might expect. Russia is a particularly incompetent foe, much like the Pakleds in Star Trek, but even with their massive armament, and being able to target an indefensible number of positions spread over an indefensible geographic area, they have not yet been fully successfully in their technical aims of grid destruction.

And to fail at the technical aim, while also accomplishing the exact opposite of your social aim (Ukrainians are more resolved, rather than demoralized), is utterly embarrassing and pathetic.

Re: How long would society last during a total grid collapse?

#144

Post by wrycoder » Wed, Nov 23, 2022, 6:21 AM UTC

karmelapple wrote: post #97

piyushpr134 wrote: post #90

Coming from India and as someone who has lived, growing up (in the 90s), without power for hours and days...trust me you are going to be deeply inconvenienced but not going to die. We had hand fans (hot climate) and fire in large bowl shaped vessels (when cold). Nights without power are spent sleeping on terrace. We had oil lamps for light in the evening. Most night activity would siege by 8pm max to wake up early at…

If it’s winter in the USA, houses could be wrecked since it could be well below freezing and the pipes could burst. Dangerously cold freezing temps also introduce a real risk of life and limb. Fires can be made, but if there’s a blizzard happening, keeping a flame going might be very difficult.

If it looks like your pipes are going to freeze, you bite the bullet and simply drain them, using the provided fittings and valves.

And, you add some antifreeze to your toilet, after you flush it to empty the tank.

Re: How long would society last during a total grid collapse?

#145

Post by captainkrtek » Wed, Nov 23, 2022, 6:23 AM UTC

epistasis wrote: post #121

ammonammonammon wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sincere question so please don't overreact as if I'm trolling. Why is your son learning Ukrainian! I could make a couple guesses but the subject is understandably too sensitive I'd like to just inform myself as to something I may be missing! I detest ignorance, above all especially my own.

Long digression away from energy here: My wife is Ukrainian, and we have two бабусі (grandmas) living with us now due to rockets making their Ukrainian home uninhabitable. So Ukrainian is actually the dominant language in my house, though I only know a tiny bit, since I grew up in the US. The lessons are speech therapy, not merely learning the language as itself. But the therapy immediately transfers from Ukrainian t…

That’s fantastic that learning new languages works well for him as a form of speech therapy! Best wishes to your family as well during this time.

Re: How long would society last during a total grid collapse?

#146

Post by monero-xmr » Wed, Nov 23, 2022, 6:24 AM UTC

2Gkashmiri wrote: post #131

meitham wrote: post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From Iraq, we went from zero power cuts in decades to no power at all within two weeks in the gulf war in 90, as NATO countries attacked all our civilian power stations. Life became horrible but we adapted. In some cases there were fights between people no different than the fights you saw in western countries over toilet rolls during covid, but I wouldn’t say it was a total society collapse. People will always find…

not to sound all propagandist but russia attacking ukraine infra is "bad" but NATO attacking iraq is "collateral damage".

Similarly I do not like authoritarians and therefore feel very bad for North Korean citizens. However I don’t understand why they are not allowed (or Iran, or any country) to build their own nuclear weapons.

Many countries have nukes - what is their right to have them? Shouldn’t every country have the right to mutually assured destruction?

I wish nukes would go away, but morally speaking if one country can have them then all countries can have them. It’s power politics after that.

Re: How long would society last during a total grid collapse?

#147

Post by hibikir » Wed, Nov 23, 2022, 6:24 AM UTC

Calvin02 wrote: post #98

piyushpr134 wrote: post #90

Coming from India and as someone who has lived, growing up (in the 90s), without power for hours and days...trust me you are going to be deeply inconvenienced but not going to die. We had hand fans (hot climate) and fire in large bowl shaped vessels (when cold). Nights without power are spent sleeping on terrace. We had oil lamps for light in the evening. Most night activity would siege by 8pm max to wake up early at…

I think you're underestimating the resilience that people and systems have built up in countries where power is unreliable. For example, I'd be willing to bet that most household don't even have candles or a battery operated flashlight. When power has been nearly 100% reliable for as long as you've been alive, there's no reason for you to worry about those things and you don't build that resilience. Someone in Alaska…

If you are thinking rural alaska, possibly. Your typical US suburb is build of houses that don't do well without HVAC in neither the winter nor the summer. The amount of gasoline that needs to be spent to go shopping is high, and you can't expect gasoline to do well either during a grid collapse.

I don't have high expectations of Manhattan in the winter, but I'd bet on them over, say, Kenosha, or the Kansas City suburbs.

Re: How long would society last during a total grid collapse?

#148

Post by woodruffw » Wed, Nov 23, 2022, 6:24 AM UTC

wrycoder wrote: post #144

karmelapple wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If it’s winter in the USA, houses could be wrecked since it could be well below freezing and the pipes could burst. Dangerously cold freezing temps also introduce a real risk of life and limb. Fires can be made, but if there’s a blizzard happening, keeping a flame going might be very difficult.

If it looks like your pipes are going to freeze, you bite the bullet and simply drain them, using the provided fittings and valves. And, you add some antifreeze to your toilet, after you flush it to empty the tank.

This works if you live in a house, but lots of people live in apartment buildings where they don't have access to the necessary valves. The building's superintendent could theoretically do it, but it's a huge task for a large building.

Re: How long would society last during a total grid collapse?

#149

Post by birksherty » Wed, Nov 23, 2022, 6:24 AM UTC

piyushpr134 wrote: post #90

Coming from India and as someone who has lived, growing up (in the 90s), without power for hours and days...trust me you are going to be deeply inconvenienced but not going to die. We had hand fans (hot climate) and fire in large bowl shaped vessels (when cold). Nights without power are spent sleeping on terrace. We had oil lamps for light in the evening. Most night activity would siege by 8pm max to wake up early at…

Obviously, people would not die. What was the expectation? That we will die within a day after no power?

Electricity is not human's natural basic need like water and oxygen. But civilised life will be extremely terrible, society will collapse, that's the story.

Re: How long would society last during a total grid collapse?

#150

Post by snoopy_telex » Wed, Nov 23, 2022, 6:28 AM UTC

epistasis wrote: post #61

I'm surprised that this article doesn't even mention the ongoing, continual attacks on the civilian Ukrainian electrical grid, in a concerted effort to take it out with thousands of cruise missiles and loitering drones. Perhaps not all countries will be as determined as the Ukrainians are in their constant repairs, but even with half of their generation capability destroyed, and so many substations targeted, the effe…

> I'm surprised that this article doesn't even mention the ongoing, continual attacks on the civilian Ukrainian electrical grid, in a concerted effort to take it out with thousands of cruise missiles and loitering drones.

I would guess that it was an intentional decision to avoid. Grady goes to great lengths to prevent anything political in his videos, and the Ukrainian war happens to be politically charged in America currently.