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How long would society last during a total grid collapse?

practical.engineering

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Re: How long would society last during a total grid collapse?

#111

Post by creatonez »

piyushpr134 wrote: post #90

Coming from India and as someone who has lived, growing up (in the 90s), without power for hours and days...trust me you are going to be deeply inconvenienced but not going to die. We had hand fans (hot climate) and fire in large bowl shaped vessels (when cold). Nights without power are spent sleeping on terrace. We had oil lamps for light in the evening. Most night activity would siege by 8pm max to wake up early at…

> India (in the 90s)

This is quite far from an apples-to-apples comparison. The article/video is intentionally very US and Canada-specific.

Re: How long would society last during a total grid collapse?

#112

Post by couchand »

lettergram wrote: post #50
acidburnNSA wrote: post #17

A lot of old Cold War preparatory war game scenarios start with EMPs blanketing the continental US. It only takes a few (like 1) nuclear weapon detonations in thin atmosphere (a few dozen km up) where the primary heat transfer mechanism is radiative (vs. convective, conductive) to cause enough EMP to take out pretty much the entire continental US grid. The military is fully hardened against EMP. Civilian infrastructu…

If I recall correctly, in that situation we’d expect a 90% fatality in 1 year. https://energsustainsoc.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s... People thought I was nuts in 2021 when the lockdowns continued and I bought enough tools to survive such an event. I figured, people aren’t working, things gonna break. Lol For reference, some basics would go a long way — survival straw to filter water, 3 month emergency food…

If you're stocking up for survival purposes throw away the straw filters and get a case of chlorine dioxide tabs.

Re: How long would society last during a total grid collapse?

#113

Post by bee_rider »

throwaway0x7E6 wrote: post #82
rnk wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At my cabin I have starlink, limited solar power and a generator with propane that comes on (power goes out a lot). Eventually I'll run out of propane and food (everyone has some emergency food supply for a few weeks at their cabin, right?), but I wonder how long I'd last with internet plus short trips in my electric car? I never planned for a post-gas future independent of the grid. Starlink relies on starlink downl…

>And someone coming in and taking it away from me. perhaps there's another thing you should invest in. well, unless you're cool with someone coming in and taking everything from you

I imagine in a really long haul disaster, it would really depend on the nature of the local community and your distance from society. If the local authorities want to impose order and redistribute your resources, a single person with a gun (I assume that’s what you mean) wouldn’t realistically be sufficient defense.

If you are far enough out and might only have to scare off, like, an occasional random drifter, that’s another story.

Or maybe you mean they should invest in their community and social network. Being seen as a local or at least familiar, and having a good reputation in the community seems like a really useful thing in this sort of scenario.

Re: How long would society last during a total grid collapse?

#114

Post by PragmaticPulp »

ltbarcly3 wrote: post #74
PragmaticPulp wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I just rounded off my most recent expansion to 120kw peak production with 500kwh storage How are you producing 120kw? That's the equivalent of around 300 solar panels (assuming 400W panels).

That's only like 300 * $100 for the panels if you buy them used. That's less than a Model 3. Installation usually costs far far more than the panels. If you have plenty of room and you can install them on the ground, and you are remote enough you can do it without permits or permits are easy to deal with (so really this means not California or New York) and wind isn't a huge concern (so not the Atlantic or Gulf coast…

> That's only like 300 * $100 for the panels if you buy them used. That's less than a Model 3. Installation usually costs far far more than the panels.

I brought it up more for the space requirements. That’s a physically huge system. Panels are only a fraction of the overall cost. Unless you have a massive commercial building somewhere, 300 panels are going to take up a huge amount of ground-mount space. You also need a lot of inverters, wiring, etc.

They also make claims about EMP hardening, which puts this into exotic build territory. Or maybe just a fantasy?

Re: How long would society last during a total grid collapse?

#115

Post by _hyn3 »

bee_rider wrote: post #113
throwaway0x7E6 wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>And someone coming in and taking it away from me. perhaps there's another thing you should invest in. well, unless you're cool with someone coming in and taking everything from you

I imagine in a really long haul disaster, it would really depend on the nature of the local community and your distance from society. If the local authorities want to impose order and redistribute your resources, a single person with a gun (I assume that’s what you mean) wouldn’t realistically be sufficient defense. If you are far enough out and might only have to scare off, like, an occasional random drifter, that’s…

> redistribute your resources

that means, "steal".

Re: How long would society last during a total grid collapse?

#116

Post by e40 »

I think the examples here (India, Puerto Rico, Ukraine) are pretty different than the US. People in those cultures are used to much more hardship than people in the US.

In my community, there are lots of hills and water is pumped uphill by pumps powered by electricity. If the power grid failed for an extended period of time, I'm pretty sure it would be total chaos. Long lines to get water just to drink. Ferried by car, but when the gas runs out, that walk up the hills would be a killer.

Once water is an issue, I think social niceties would be out the window.

Re: How long would society last during a total grid collapse?

#117

Post by bee_rider »

_hyn3 wrote: post #115
bee_rider wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I imagine in a really long haul disaster, it would really depend on the nature of the local community and your distance from society. If the local authorities want to impose order and redistribute your resources, a single person with a gun (I assume that’s what you mean) wouldn’t realistically be sufficient defense. If you are far enough out and might only have to scare off, like, an occasional random drifter, that’s…

> redistribute your resources that means, "steal".

Sure, I was being euphemistic.

On the other hand, what are you going to do, call the cops? They are the cops.

Re: How long would society last during a total grid collapse?

#118

Post by aeneasmackenzie »

areoform wrote: post #72
gjsman-1000 wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But is the military hardened against deserters, starving soldiers, starving military families, and so forth caused by civilian infrastructure collapse? I doubt it. If you can’t feed or heat/cool people, alliances quickly change - especially if you have no way of tracking who becomes AWOL. As far as I know, military bases don’t have their own nuclear reactors or coal plants. EDIT: Apparently the DoD requires diesel ba…

> is the military hardened against deserters, starving soldiers, starving military families, and so forth caused by civilian infrastructure collapse? I doubt it. That's where Article 90 of the UCMJ comes into play, Any person subject to this chapter who willfully disobeys a lawful command of that person’s superior commissioned officer shall be punished— (1) if the offense is committed in time of war, by death or such…

When this actually becomes a real possibility, it doesn't turn out that way.

See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fragging

Re: How long would society last during a total grid collapse?

#119

Post by jes5199 »

radu_floricica wrote: post #87
epistasis wrote: post #61

I'm surprised that this article doesn't even mention the ongoing, continual attacks on the civilian Ukrainian electrical grid, in a concerted effort to take it out with thousands of cruise missiles and loitering drones. Perhaps not all countries will be as determined as the Ukrainians are in their constant repairs, but even with half of their generation capability destroyed, and so many substations targeted, the effe…

All good points. A small note: there's yet a many orders of magnitude difference between the whole power consumption, or even only residential power consumption, and the storage available in distributed sources. Even projecting ahead a few years and counting what's likely to be built. I'd guess between 3 and 5 zeroes, in most densely populated cities. If anything, I think the bulk of the flexibility will come from th…

The densely populated cities are going to be the hardest to transition - but in rural and suburban areas it may already be cheaper to generate and store your own power than to get it from the grid, most of the year

Re: How long would society last during a total grid collapse?

#120

Post by germinalphrase »

el_benhameen wrote: post #79
rnk wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At my cabin I have starlink, limited solar power and a generator with propane that comes on (power goes out a lot). Eventually I'll run out of propane and food (everyone has some emergency food supply for a few weeks at their cabin, right?), but I wonder how long I'd last with internet plus short trips in my electric car? I never planned for a post-gas future independent of the grid. Starlink relies on starlink downl…

I think that last line is really the crux of it. Most of us would survive a “collapse” event exactly as long as it would take for people to get desperate. After that, all the batteries and canned food in the world will do you no good if you don’t have a remote and defensible location, ammunition, and lots of training. I have none of the above, so fingers crossed!

There is a counter argument out there that individuals/small groups that self isolate during extreme events/collapse of social stability tend to do much more poorly than groups that prioritize mutual aid.
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