How long would society last during a total grid collapse? • Hacker News Board

Re: How long would society last during a total grid collapse?

#91

Post by h4waii » Wed, Nov 23, 2022, 5:24 AM UTC

el_benhameen wrote: post #79

rnk wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At my cabin I have starlink, limited solar power and a generator with propane that comes on (power goes out a lot). Eventually I'll run out of propane and food (everyone has some emergency food supply for a few weeks at their cabin, right?), but I wonder how long I'd last with internet plus short trips in my electric car? I never planned for a post-gas future independent of the grid. Starlink relies on starlink downl…

I think that last line is really the crux of it. Most of us would survive a “collapse” event exactly as long as it would take for people to get desperate. After that, all the batteries and canned food in the world will do you no good if you don’t have a remote and defensible location, ammunition, and lots of training. I have none of the above, so fingers crossed!

The worst time to do something for the first time is in an emergency.

Definitely a good idea to jump start on some areas that are lacking, no matter how small the steps are they are worth taking.

Re: How long would society last during a total grid collapse?

#92

Post by vasco » Wed, Nov 23, 2022, 5:24 AM UTC

aliqot wrote: post #26

vasco wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the country it's also easier to be raided by people who know or suspect you have food and water. One house with nothing around it for miles vs an apartment in a huge building, is basically hiding in a crowd.

Careful, it rains lead in the fields.

Most of the country side in the world is outside the USA, where a hunting rifle is the most people would have, if anything.

Re: How long would society last during a total grid collapse?

#93

Post by polio » Wed, Nov 23, 2022, 5:24 AM UTC

groffee wrote: post #6

I think everyone should turn off their power for a couple of hours (when convenient) just to see if and how well they'd manage. Because it's so easy to become reliant on something without realizing that it could go. Powers gone off? Guess I'll put the kettle on and make some tea while I wait - no power. It's got a bit dark - put the light on. Listen to spotify? No songs downloaded and no data etc etc. And that's not…

The really difficult part of living without power is living among a population that is unprepared for it, and therefore rabid with stress.

Re: How long would society last during a total grid collapse?

#94

Post by eek2121 » Wed, Nov 23, 2022, 5:25 AM UTC

cpsns wrote: post #36

> Critical facilities like cellular base stations and data-centers often have an on-site backup generator. These generators have enough fuel to extend the resiliency beyond 24 to 48 hours. During the 2019 hurricane here in Nova Scotia people stole the fuel (and even a few generators somehow), so don’t even count on that. We had no internet, cellular, or landline service for days where I live as a result, much less po…

Verizon is my absolute mad-lad hero in NJ. All of our towers had Natural Gas generators keeping the towers alive during Hurricane Sandy. I lost power and land-based internet, cellular internet and phone calls were alive and well thanks to those generators. Kudos to whatever NG company they used as well.

Re: How long would society last during a total grid collapse?

#95

Post by doctorshady » Wed, Nov 23, 2022, 5:25 AM UTC

sologoub wrote: post #70

micro_cam wrote: post #30

Growing in the 80s up on the rural olympic peninsula the power routinely went off for a couple of weeks after windstorms. Even still it will be off for a few days every year. There are just a lot of power lines and a lot of trees and they have to check the whole system before it turns back on though they usually get it on for the schools and grocery stores pretty quick. Everyone has a wood or propane heat source. We…

The article talks about phones correctly - at the backbone level it’s mostly VoIP now, which requires power. I bet some places have old mechanical switches that in theory can still be used, but those need some power as well. Landline is great for a localized loss where your central office still have enough power to run.

Circuit switched landline service is still very much alive. It isn't and hasn't been electromechanical for a very long time, but it's non-packetized in a very large part of the US, provided you actually get a service that legally qualifies as a landline (voip is unregulated).

Re: How long would society last during a total grid collapse?

#96

Post by pc86 » Wed, Nov 23, 2022, 5:25 AM UTC

lettergram wrote: post #50

acidburnNSA wrote: post #17

A lot of old Cold War preparatory war game scenarios start with EMPs blanketing the continental US. It only takes a few (like 1) nuclear weapon detonations in thin atmosphere (a few dozen km up) where the primary heat transfer mechanism is radiative (vs. convective, conductive) to cause enough EMP to take out pretty much the entire continental US grid. The military is fully hardened against EMP. Civilian infrastructu…

If I recall correctly, in that situation we’d expect a 90% fatality in 1 year. https://energsustainsoc.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s... People thought I was nuts in 2021 when the lockdowns continued and I bought enough tools to survive such an event. I figured, people aren’t working, things gonna break. Lol For reference, some basics would go a long way — survival straw to filter water, 3 month emergency food…

Where did you learn these skills?

Hell I barely know how to change the oil in my car because I never had someone teach me and only recently got to a place in my life where I realized that sort of thing is important. I'm making headway, slowly but surely, but something like growing enough food for a family or acquiring meat, let alone preserving it, might as well be trying to get to the moon.

Re: How long would society last during a total grid collapse?

#97

Post by karmelapple » Wed, Nov 23, 2022, 5:26 AM UTC

piyushpr134 wrote: post #90

Coming from India and as someone who has lived, growing up (in the 90s), without power for hours and days...trust me you are going to be deeply inconvenienced but not going to die. We had hand fans (hot climate) and fire in large bowl shaped vessels (when cold). Nights without power are spent sleeping on terrace. We had oil lamps for light in the evening. Most night activity would siege by 8pm max to wake up early at…

If it’s winter in the USA, houses could be wrecked since it could be well below freezing and the pipes could burst. Dangerously cold freezing temps also introduce a real risk of life and limb. Fires can be made, but if there’s a blizzard happening, keeping a flame going might be very difficult.

Re: How long would society last during a total grid collapse?

#98

Post by Calvin02 » Wed, Nov 23, 2022, 5:27 AM UTC

piyushpr134 wrote: post #90

Coming from India and as someone who has lived, growing up (in the 90s), without power for hours and days...trust me you are going to be deeply inconvenienced but not going to die. We had hand fans (hot climate) and fire in large bowl shaped vessels (when cold). Nights without power are spent sleeping on terrace. We had oil lamps for light in the evening. Most night activity would siege by 8pm max to wake up early at…

I think you're underestimating the resilience that people and systems have built up in countries where power is unreliable.

For example, I'd be willing to bet that most household don't even have candles or a battery operated flashlight.

When power has been nearly 100% reliable for as long as you've been alive, there's no reason for you to worry about those things and you don't build that resilience.

Someone in Alaska is probably more prepared for surviving a power outage than someone in Manhattan. In fact, I'd be willing to bet that life might continue as normal far longer in remote areas than it would in big cities in the event of a major outage.

Re: How long would society last during a total grid collapse?

#99

Post by ammonammonammon » Wed, Nov 23, 2022, 5:27 AM UTC

epistasis wrote: post #61

I'm surprised that this article doesn't even mention the ongoing, continual attacks on the civilian Ukrainian electrical grid, in a concerted effort to take it out with thousands of cruise missiles and loitering drones. Perhaps not all countries will be as determined as the Ukrainians are in their constant repairs, but even with half of their generation capability destroyed, and so many substations targeted, the effe…

Sincere question so please don't overreact as if I'm trolling. Why is your son learning Ukrainian! I could make a couple guesses but the subject is understandably too sensitive I'd like to just inform myself as to something I may be missing! I detest ignorance, above all especially my own.

Re: How long would society last during a total grid collapse?

#100

Post by dylan604 » Wed, Nov 23, 2022, 5:27 AM UTC

Victerius wrote: post #77

TheAceOfHearts wrote: post #40

In Puerto Rico a few months back we lost power and water due to the hurricane. Living without power and water, even for a few days starts to have a severe psychological impact. You don't realize how much of a luxury and a blessing it is to have clean running water until it's no longer available. You can't flush the toilet, freshen up, shower, wash your dishes, or wash your clothes. If you don't have a backup power ge…

I regard attacks on critical civilian infrastructure as strategically indistinguishable from nuclear attacks, and deserving of a similar response. Edit: Why is this being downvoted. I'm right. One will kill 100k people instantly. The other will send them back to the Middle Ages. The former group might actually be the luckier one.

What are you going to do, nuke the hurricanes?