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How long would society last during a total grid collapse?

practical.engineering

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Re: How long would society last during a total grid collapse?

#41

Post by quacked »

aliqot wrote: post #26
vasco wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the country it's also easier to be raided by people who know or suspect you have food and water. One house with nothing around it for miles vs an apartment in a huge building, is basically hiding in a crowd.

Careful, it rains lead in the fields.

This is a smart instinct, but the ammunition only lasts so long. Someone deep in the boonies with a good stash will be okay, but anyone within 1-5 day's march near the cities had better be prepared to "stack 'em high' for a long time before the stream of starving city ex-pats slows to a trickle.

Re: How long would society last during a total grid collapse?

#42

Post by gjsman-1000 »

quacked wrote: post #39

This is one of those situations where there are no backups, and no one has any plans to make any backups. A power outage disaster-hardened country has a populace that's deeply knowledgeable about self-governance, organized combat, agriculture, medicine, sanitation, power generation, engineering, textiles, supply logistics, and construction. If the citizens of a western country like the US somehow earned the free time…

My family jokes that, while everyone stocks up on “survival” products… cigarettes and alcohol will probably be in high demand. Got video games, maybe some solar power (just enough for a TV and a Switch)? Parents will want those to keep the kids sane. Got Blu-rays, DVDs? When people can’t stream, you might get some good resources for them. Got a PC with some offline CAD software? Makes planning making things out of wood easier. And so forth.

Re: How long would society last during a total grid collapse?

#44

Post by modoc »

vasco wrote: post #24
School-Cotton wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Luckily, if you have a gas stove, you can still heat up water for tea at least :)

Depends if the gas is from a canister in your house or if you're relying on the gas grid which can also fail during a prolonged widespread power outage.

most city natural gas systems are powered by gas powered generators spread around. Multi week outages due to ice storms in the north east have rarely (if ever) caused outages of the gas system.

Re: How long would society last during a total grid collapse?

#45

Post by quacked »

gjsman-1000 wrote: post #42
quacked wrote: post #39

This is one of those situations where there are no backups, and no one has any plans to make any backups. A power outage disaster-hardened country has a populace that's deeply knowledgeable about self-governance, organized combat, agriculture, medicine, sanitation, power generation, engineering, textiles, supply logistics, and construction. If the citizens of a western country like the US somehow earned the free time…

My family jokes that, while everyone stocks up on “survival” products… cigarettes and alcohol will probably be in high demand. Got video games, maybe some solar power (just enough for a TV and a Switch)? Parents will want those to keep the kids sane. Got Blu-rays, DVDs? When people can’t stream, you might get some good resources for them. Got a PC with some offline CAD software? Makes planning making things out of wo…

That's a smart idea. Cigarettes, condoms, porn, gum, the sorts of things you bribe third-world soldiers with (often people with experience living without power for a long time.)

Edit: I saw you added CAD software; I actually think that people would go back to just drawing things on paper before they'd go to "solar rig to PC with CAD software on it". Civilization did run just fine without computers up until they crashed the scene, and most of the really memorable buildings were designed on paper.

Re: How long would society last during a total grid collapse?

#46

Post by sixstringtheory »

gjsman-1000 wrote: post #21
acidburnNSA wrote: post #17

A lot of old Cold War preparatory war game scenarios start with EMPs blanketing the continental US. It only takes a few (like 1) nuclear weapon detonations in thin atmosphere (a few dozen km up) where the primary heat transfer mechanism is radiative (vs. convective, conductive) to cause enough EMP to take out pretty much the entire continental US grid. The military is fully hardened against EMP. Civilian infrastructu…

But is the military hardened against deserters, starving soldiers, starving military families, and so forth caused by civilian infrastructure collapse? I doubt it. If you can’t feed or heat/cool people, alliances quickly change - especially if you have no way of tracking who becomes AWOL. As far as I know, military bases don’t have their own nuclear reactors or coal plants. EDIT: Apparently the DoD requires diesel ba…

> As far as I know, military bases don’t have their own nuclear reactors or coal plants.

FYI, Eielson AFB in Alaska has a coal plant and is working on an experimental nuclear microreactor installation, the first of its kind that the military plans to expand to other bases.

Re: How long would society last during a total grid collapse?

#47

Post by sixstringtheory »

gjsman-1000 wrote: post #42
quacked wrote: post #39

This is one of those situations where there are no backups, and no one has any plans to make any backups. A power outage disaster-hardened country has a populace that's deeply knowledgeable about self-governance, organized combat, agriculture, medicine, sanitation, power generation, engineering, textiles, supply logistics, and construction. If the citizens of a western country like the US somehow earned the free time…

My family jokes that, while everyone stocks up on “survival” products… cigarettes and alcohol will probably be in high demand. Got video games, maybe some solar power (just enough for a TV and a Switch)? Parents will want those to keep the kids sane. Got Blu-rays, DVDs? When people can’t stream, you might get some good resources for them. Got a PC with some offline CAD software? Makes planning making things out of wo…

Wouldn’t an EMP destroy photovoltaic cells, inverters etc?

Maybe keep a couple panels in your underground bunker to bring up to the surface after the blast…

Re: How long would society last during a total grid collapse?

#48

Post by modoc »

quacked wrote: post #41
aliqot wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Careful, it rains lead in the fields.

This is a smart instinct, but the ammunition only lasts so long. Someone deep in the boonies with a good stash will be okay, but anyone within 1-5 day's march near the cities had better be prepared to "stack 'em high' for a long time before the stream of starving city ex-pats slows to a trickle.

You'd probably be surprised by the number of folks who have tens of thousands of rounds. When ammo prices started going up, pretty much everyone I know who shoots at all started buying in bulk. Not saying everyone who has a gun is trained or mentally prepared to shoot trespassers for months on end, but I think a lot of people who think farms and ranches will be easy pickings haven't spent enough time with the folks who live out here.

Re: How long would society last during a total grid collapse?

#49

Post by wildstrawberry »

acidburnNSA wrote: post #17

A lot of old Cold War preparatory war game scenarios start with EMPs blanketing the continental US. It only takes a few (like 1) nuclear weapon detonations in thin atmosphere (a few dozen km up) where the primary heat transfer mechanism is radiative (vs. convective, conductive) to cause enough EMP to take out pretty much the entire continental US grid. The military is fully hardened against EMP. Civilian infrastructu…

The creator of the grid collapse video also made a video about the risk of EMPs, and argued that while the impacts could be severe, the 'hollywood-style' devastation that many predict on the internet (and in this thread) is not likely.

https://practical.engineering/blog/2022/11/7/how-would-a-nuc...

Re: How long would society last during a total grid collapse?

#50

Post by lettergram »

acidburnNSA wrote: post #17

A lot of old Cold War preparatory war game scenarios start with EMPs blanketing the continental US. It only takes a few (like 1) nuclear weapon detonations in thin atmosphere (a few dozen km up) where the primary heat transfer mechanism is radiative (vs. convective, conductive) to cause enough EMP to take out pretty much the entire continental US grid. The military is fully hardened against EMP. Civilian infrastructu…

If I recall correctly, in that situation we’d expect a 90% fatality in 1 year.

https://energsustainsoc.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s...

People thought I was nuts in 2021 when the lockdowns continued and I bought enough tools to survive such an event. I figured, people aren’t working, things gonna break. Lol

For reference, some basics would go a long way — survival straw to filter water, 3 month emergency food storage, fire starting kit, water collection, etc. for those in the country it’s really not much. A solar generator with a big battery could probably work for those in the country (with a well). For those in the suburbs you’ll need enough to hunker down for a few weeks (and guns). For the city, you need an escape plan and a place to go.

A true grid collapse would be insane. Most people don’t know how to do any of the basics all our families did only a generation or two ago.

How many people can? How many know how to preserve meat for long periods without a freezer? How many know how to grow food and store it?

I’ve spent the past couple years learning some of these skills and preparing the tools.

To be clear grid collapse is inevitable on a long enough time horizon. Being prepared with food, water and shelter is a bare minimum.

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