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UK faces worst downturn of any advanced economy, OECD says

bbc.co.uk

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Re: UK faces worst downturn of any advanced economy, OECD says

#11

Post by TapWaterBandit »

TapWaterBandit wrote: post #8

There have been some concrete advantages to Brexit: - Regained control of borders. This is going to be an increasingly important issue going into the 21st century as Africa is going through an enormous population boom. -No longer on the hook for the debt of certain EU nations (Italy and Greece being big ones) It'll be interesting to see his this shakes out over the next decade. If the UK achieves some degree of freet…

https://capx.co/britain-remade-a-new-campaign-for-economic-g...

Some of the proposals here would be a good start for the UK. There is no reason the UK can't flourish but it will need to make some overdue changes. And London needs to realise that like it or not they are the capital city of the United Kingdom, not a city state alone.

Re: UK faces worst downturn of any advanced economy, OECD says

#12

Post by oneoff786 »

TapWaterBandit wrote: post #11
TapWaterBandit wrote: post #8

There have been some concrete advantages to Brexit: - Regained control of borders. This is going to be an increasingly important issue going into the 21st century as Africa is going through an enormous population boom. -No longer on the hook for the debt of certain EU nations (Italy and Greece being big ones) It'll be interesting to see his this shakes out over the next decade. If the UK achieves some degree of freet…

https://capx.co/britain-remade-a-new-campaign-for-economic-g... Some of the proposals here would be a good start for the UK. There is no reason the UK can't flourish but it will need to make some overdue changes. And London needs to realise that like it or not they are the capital city of the United Kingdom, not a city state alone.

Maybe they should do a brexit 2 to make isolate themselves from the UK union

Re: UK faces worst downturn of any advanced economy, OECD says

#13

Post by matthewdgreen »

TapWaterBandit wrote: post #8

There have been some concrete advantages to Brexit: - Regained control of borders. This is going to be an increasingly important issue going into the 21st century as Africa is going through an enormous population boom. -No longer on the hook for the debt of certain EU nations (Italy and Greece being big ones) It'll be interesting to see his this shakes out over the next decade. If the UK achieves some degree of freet…

The problem with this plan is that “the UK coming out of Brexit ‘up’” would be meaningfully bad for the EU if it encourages other countries to follow. And at the same time, the party with the greatest power to determine free trade agreements between UK/EU is the EU itself. This always struck me as the worst paradox of the whole idea: you’ve created an adversarial zero-sum environment where a much more powerful opponent determines your success.

In practice it doesn’t look this will even be an issue, since Brexit is already producing such bad results and losing popular support as demographic changes wipe out its base of support.

Re: UK faces worst downturn of any advanced economy, OECD says

#14

Post by truculent »

TapWaterBandit wrote: post #8

There have been some concrete advantages to Brexit: - Regained control of borders. This is going to be an increasingly important issue going into the 21st century as Africa is going through an enormous population boom. -No longer on the hook for the debt of certain EU nations (Italy and Greece being big ones) It'll be interesting to see his this shakes out over the next decade. If the UK achieves some degree of freet…

While it’s quite possible for the UK to mitigate the effects of Brexit and attempt to find positives, expecting that to happen under a Conservative government is, frankly, laughable based on the last decade of evidence.

The idea that reduced prosperity in London world somehow cause more attention to be given in underserved parts of the rest of the country makes little sense to me either. M

Re: UK faces worst downturn of any advanced economy, OECD says

#15

Post by Havoc »

TapWaterBandit wrote: post #8

There have been some concrete advantages to Brexit: - Regained control of borders. This is going to be an increasingly important issue going into the 21st century as Africa is going through an enormous population boom. -No longer on the hook for the debt of certain EU nations (Italy and Greece being big ones) It'll be interesting to see his this shakes out over the next decade. If the UK achieves some degree of freet…

> No longer on the hook for the debt of certain EU nations

That might actually be the first credible benefit I’ve heard

Re: UK faces worst downturn of any advanced economy, OECD says

#16

Post by 0xy »

bsder wrote: post #4
_8j50 wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can't unspill milk.

In this instance, you can unspill a lot of the milk by unwinding Brexit. The UK won't get back the absolutely insane, sometimes one-sided benefits that they had before Brexit--those are gone permanently. However, they would get back the unified market and probably arrest the destruction of London as a financial center.

Large financial institutions and banks are expanding footprint in London, and have announced new office developments after Brexit. So this claim of yours seems to be based on pre-Brexit fearmongering that never came to pass.

I mean, come on, this is easily dis-proven as a talking point. 1 minute of Googling will show it's totally false. [1]

>“London's position in Citi's global framework and strategy is undiminished and is actually growing” [2]

>[HSBC] named three new senior investment bankers within its UK team over the past month as part of an ongoing expansion in the country, according to internal memos seen by Financial News. [3]

[1] https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20220125006049/en/Cit...

[2] https://www.ft.com/content/7d1be767-0121-45aa-8f94-b3a04ea3c...

[3] https://www.fnlondon.com/articles/hsbc-hires-three-bankers-a...

Re: UK faces worst downturn of any advanced economy, OECD says

#17

Post by rsj_hn »

TapWaterBandit wrote: post #8

There have been some concrete advantages to Brexit: - Regained control of borders. This is going to be an increasingly important issue going into the 21st century as Africa is going through an enormous population boom. -No longer on the hook for the debt of certain EU nations (Italy and Greece being big ones) It'll be interesting to see his this shakes out over the next decade. If the UK achieves some degree of freet…

This has nothing to do with Brexit, it is about the anti-Russian sanctions, specifically the energy sanctions, but also knock on effects.

The UK imports large quantities of oil and natural gas, and these are now much more expensive, which is hitting the UK economy. Nations that are more energy independent suffer less.

The UK, although it has North Seas oil, does not have sufficient quantities of domestic gas production, and even the North Seas oil is a bit tricky because of the refinery situation in Europe is not set up for self-sufficiency -- e.g. the UK exports about as much oil as it imports, with different nations responsible for supplying different distillates, so it's not the case that the UK, when faced with a shortfall of foreign oil imports, can just use its own oil. Long term it can, assuming refineries are built domestically, but not in the short term. But for natural gas, there isn't really a replacement -- perhaps nuclear, but that is very long term.

Re: UK faces worst downturn of any advanced economy, OECD says

#18

Post by 0xy »

truculent wrote: post #14
TapWaterBandit wrote: post #8

There have been some concrete advantages to Brexit: - Regained control of borders. This is going to be an increasingly important issue going into the 21st century as Africa is going through an enormous population boom. -No longer on the hook for the debt of certain EU nations (Italy and Greece being big ones) It'll be interesting to see his this shakes out over the next decade. If the UK achieves some degree of freet…

While it’s quite possible for the UK to mitigate the effects of Brexit and attempt to find positives, expecting that to happen under a Conservative government is, frankly, laughable based on the last decade of evidence. The idea that reduced prosperity in London world somehow cause more attention to be given in underserved parts of the rest of the country makes little sense to me either. M

The NHS budget was 100 billion pounds in 2015 and is now 136 billion pounds, which means a 692m pound weekly increase in spending.

One of the pieces of fearmongering from anti-Brexit campaigners was that the NHS would be starved of resources and would not receive adequate funding.

Now that it's been proven a lie, anyone against Brexit claims they never made those statements.

In fact, one of the most lambasted pro-Brexit selling points was additional NHS funding. It actually happened.

Re: UK faces worst downturn of any advanced economy, OECD says

#19

Post by laurencerowe »

Havoc wrote: post #15
TapWaterBandit wrote: post #8

There have been some concrete advantages to Brexit: - Regained control of borders. This is going to be an increasingly important issue going into the 21st century as Africa is going through an enormous population boom. -No longer on the hook for the debt of certain EU nations (Italy and Greece being big ones) It'll be interesting to see his this shakes out over the next decade. If the UK achieves some degree of freet…

> No longer on the hook for the debt of certain EU nations That might actually be the first credible benefit I’ve heard

This wasn't really true though. Not being a EuroZone member the UK was not part of the European Stability Mechanism and "The UK is not liable through existing emergency funding schemes".

https://fullfact.org/europe/will-uk-pay-future-eurozone-bail...

Re: UK faces worst downturn of any advanced economy, OECD says

#20

Post by jen20 »

Andaith wrote: post #7
bsder wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In this instance, you can unspill a lot of the milk by unwinding Brexit. The UK won't get back the absolutely insane, sometimes one-sided benefits that they had before Brexit--those are gone permanently. However, they would get back the unified market and probably arrest the destruction of London as a financial center.

I'm ok with London as a financial center being destroyed if it means the rest of the UK gets more resources & investment, and thus wealth spreads more equally. It's always been wild to me the difference between London & the rest of the UK.

That isn't what it means though: it means everywhere getting fewer resources and less investment.
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