Live data from Hacker News

Are tech stocks now good value?

economist.com

11–20 of 90 posts

Re: Are tech stocks now good value?

#11

They have a term for this kind of article on Wall Street: Trying to catch a falling knife " stocks have been beaten up. It's time to buy now!" Like clockwork, you can count on those stories appearing after a crash.

They have a much better term that really captures this stuff it is, "a martingale."

Edit: Just to clarify, a martingale is a bet that's equally likely to go either way and has zero expected value.

Re: Are tech stocks now good value?

#12
post #6

I wouldnt invest in amazon, they are just another embarassing part of the .com bubble and will go under any minute now.

Is this sarcasm?

Definitely sarcastic. Amazon didn't only survive the .com crash, but they ultimately thrived because a huge number of competitors were culled.

Re: Are tech stocks now good value?

#13
I think so. I've started buying shares every month in Cloudflare and Shopify - use their products and think they have fantastic momentum and great teams working on industry-defining tech. Disclaimer - I don't work/have never worked at either

Re: Are tech stocks now good value?

#17
post #14

I'd like to see longer-term revenue reports to make sure their P/E ratios (or similar) are decent. The staff reductions etc. have yet to fully play out in terms of costs and results.

If you wait for that then it’ll be too late and you’ll find yourself in the midst of the next tech bubble. Now is the time to buy if you’re going to.

Re: Are tech stocks now good value?

#18

They have a term for this kind of article on Wall Street: Trying to catch a falling knife " stocks have been beaten up. It's time to buy now!" Like clockwork, you can count on those stories appearing after a crash.

And it's sort of self-fulfilling, right? If these stories have a big enough impact, a lot of people will buy the stocks and they will actually stop falling.

Re: Are tech stocks now good value?

#19
post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is this sarcasm?

I don't know about "any minute now" But I would echo the comment that I think they face a lot of turbulence in their future.

I agree and would posit they already are facing a lot of turbulence.

As an aside it seems like Amazon is a bit of a sacred cow on hn. It's assumed it is some exceptionally well run company with an extremely promising investment future - but the reality of the past few years has exposed that hypothesis a bit. It is the first company to lose over a trillion dollars in shareholder value.

Further, much of their business strategy was copied by other .com companies during the dot com boom, and they pretty much all failed spectacularly. Pets.com is the notable example, which had investment from Amazon itself, the same "get big fast" mindset, and spectacularly collapsed.

It seems a lot of "what works for Amazon" doesn't actually work anywhere else for some reason. If you've had ex-Amazon managers enter your organization you've probably seen this first hand.

I was also practically laughed out of the room for suggesting that Walmart is many times a better e-commerce experience these days compared to Amazon, as if comparing Walmart to Amazon is a laughable proposition which only a fool would make. Well, I would challenge anyone reading this to actually use Walmart and come to your own conclusion. It's cheaper. Shipping is frequently faster. They have more selection in stock sold by Walmart. And frankly I don't see any reason to go back to Amazon after using Walmart for several months.

Amazon is going to lose it's shine more and more, and I think the turbulence they are already facing is just the beginning.

Re: Are tech stocks now good value?

#20

They have a term for this kind of article on Wall Street: Trying to catch a falling knife " stocks have been beaten up. It's time to buy now!" Like clockwork, you can count on those stories appearing after a crash.

They have a much better term that really captures this stuff it is, "a martingale." Edit: Just to clarify, a martingale is a bet that's equally likely to go either way and has zero expected value.

Only if you double your bet every time you lose. Otherwise it's called a dollar cost averaging.
Post reply on HN