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Is this the end of crypto?

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Re: Is this the end of crypto?

#361

Post by mattbrewsbytes »

kragen wrote: post #345
polygamous_bat wrote: post #274

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Every time I see the "Bitcoin for remittance" logic, the first question I ask is: what is the use case or demand for Bitcoin at the third world where you are sending your money? Why should anyone want that except for speculation? Clearly, Bitcoin is not being accepted at the mom-and-pop shop in Bangladesh (they don't even take credit card), so what are the people supposed to do with the Bitcoin once they receive it?…

Well, as I explained, savings is a demand for Bitcoin that isn't the same thing as "hopes and dreams of getting rich someday". Just having an asset that doesn't reliably evaporate like the peso or the bolivar is a pretty big win already, even if you aren't going to get rich. Another important use case that I didn't mention is leaving the country to live somewhere better. Suppose you've saved up money in, to use examp…

Are you concerned about the falling ratio of Bitcoin to USD? Or is the hope that this storm removes a lot of the scam artists/ponzi schemes and the ratio stabilizes in a way?

Edit to add: it seems like the relative ratio doesn't matter much for the scenarios you describe because it is much better than the swings in local currency compared to USD.

Re: Is this the end of crypto?

#362

Post by dragontamer »

colineartheta wrote: post #339
latchkey wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

ETH validators are around 8% right now, not 5%. The 'risk' is that the developers don't successfully implement withdrawal or that the whole network goes down. Two, imho, huge risks and part of the reason I don't personally stake at this time. That said, eip-1559 and 'the merge' did happen, without much of a hitch at all, which are pretty major accomplishments. Confidence in the developers is a bit higher now as a res…

Care to comment on the Ethereum Foundation now removing all reference to a date in which “staked” ETH can be withdrawn? Or perhaps commenting on the fact that to become a validator requires 23 ETH, or approximately $28,000 of upfront investment that cannot be withdrawn in order to achieve your stated yield?

Indeed. It should be noted that the Fed Rate / Risk Free Rate / Overnight lending rate is... well... overnight lending. Its the rate you get for a 1-day loan for tomorrow.

Its about as risk-free as you can get. So when the Fed Rate goes from 3% to 3.75% or whatever (for overnight loans), all other loans (ie: riskier 6-month, or 12-month, or 10-year, etc. etc.) have to go up in yields to compensate.

-------

Its difficult to compare Ethereum "staking" with traditional finance, because traditional finance has much better guarantees. My SWVXX and VMFXX money at 3.6% can be withdrawn (or deposited) at 5pm every business day. Its extremely liquid, far more so than Ethereum staking.

Further adding to the complications, Coinbase allows you to trade cbETH (wrapped Ethereum), which is Ethereum that has been staked at Coinbase. Its not entirely clear when cbETH can be withdrawn and turned back into ETH.

Re: Is this the end of crypto?

#363

Post by snapcaster »

arcticbull wrote: post #260
tim333 wrote: post #236

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nitpicking but >if we turned off all bitcoin miners today, bitcoin would go to zero instantly isn't true. You couldn't trade them normally with the miners off but you could start mining up the day after - it only takes a couple of computers really.

> You couldn't trade them normally with the miners off but you could start mining up the day after. So if we turn off all the bitcoin miners, it wouldn't be possible to transact. All you could do is look at it, like a read-only excel sheet.

But you understand why this hasn't happened yet right? if everyone else turned off their miners, I for one would be interested in money and turn one on

Re: Is this the end of crypto?

#364

Post by achenatx »

crypto is supposed to be money that is outside the control of central banks or governments.

As a result it is good for:

Getting your money out of a country that is trying to stop you from doing that

Transferring your money across borders when the government wants to impose high tariffs

Protecting your money from central banks when governments have decided to freeze your bank accounts

Protecting your money from a government that reckless with the native currency where you have no way to have accounts to store large amounts of foreign currency

You might say that this only applies to criminals, but the definition of criminal might just be whoever happens to be a target of a government. Many governments around the world are dictatorships and can decide to confiscate assets on a whim (e.g. china).

When the jews fled germany or the chinese fled communist china, they took what they could (often times gold or gems). Crypto is potentially a way to flee a bad situation while avoiding being robbed by carrying your wealth as gold.

Finally it would be interesting if BRICS started transacting oil in crypto. It would be a way to possibly break the US dollar as the world reserve currency.

Re: Is this the end of crypto?

#365

Post by boring_twenties »

rafaelero wrote: post #275

Bitcoin won't die. Crypto will, and hopefully soon. The community here is so oblivious to the characteristics that make Bitcoin the best monetary system we could have invented that I can only believe people haven't really thought things through. That's why we see these comparisons with Bitcoin and other cryptos. I am actually glad all this mess is happening so we can finally move on with all those crypto scams that w…

Bitcoin has been obsolete since 2014 -- Monero is superior in every single way.

Re: Is this the end of crypto?

#366

Post by latchkey »

dragontamer wrote: post #362
colineartheta wrote: post #339

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Care to comment on the Ethereum Foundation now removing all reference to a date in which “staked” ETH can be withdrawn? Or perhaps commenting on the fact that to become a validator requires 23 ETH, or approximately $28,000 of upfront investment that cannot be withdrawn in order to achieve your stated yield?

Indeed. It should be noted that the Fed Rate / Risk Free Rate / Overnight lending rate is... well... overnight lending. Its the rate you get for a 1-day loan for tomorrow. Its about as risk-free as you can get. So when the Fed Rate goes from 3% to 3.75% or whatever (for overnight loans), all other loans (ie: riskier 6-month, or 12-month, or 10-year, etc. etc.) have to go up in yields to compensate. ------- Its diffic…

There are multiple liquid ETH staking pools where you deposit your ETH and get their token in return. You don't even need the full 32.

https://ethereum.org/en/staking/pools/

These tokens have also been trading at discounts to ETH if you want to just buy and hold the token, which should eventually reach parity to ETH. That can also be an additional gain, but incurs additional risk.

Re: Is this the end of crypto?

#367

Post by dragontamer »

latchkey wrote: post #366
dragontamer wrote: post #362

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Indeed. It should be noted that the Fed Rate / Risk Free Rate / Overnight lending rate is... well... overnight lending. Its the rate you get for a 1-day loan for tomorrow. Its about as risk-free as you can get. So when the Fed Rate goes from 3% to 3.75% or whatever (for overnight loans), all other loans (ie: riskier 6-month, or 12-month, or 10-year, etc. etc.) have to go up in yields to compensate. ------- Its diffic…

There are multiple liquid ETH staking pools where you deposit your ETH and get their token in return. You don't even need the full 32. https://ethereum.org/en/staking/pools/ These tokens have also been trading at discounts to ETH if you want to just buy and hold the token, which should eventually reach parity to ETH. That can also be an additional gain, but incurs additional risk.

> which should eventually reach parity to ETH

You're ignoring the issue here.

When I'm talking Fed Rate, its _OVERNIGHT LENDING_. Its not "eventually reach parity with dollar", its "this will turn into a real dollar tomorrow". Its a loan that is as safe as you can possibly get.

You're trying to compare Ethereum staking with the Fed's overnight lending. The risk/reward structures at play here are completely different.

The Fed Rate is the shortest, and safest, loan in the entire marketplace. Ethereum staking is kinda similar in some respects (as a yield granted by the "Ethereum system" itself, its kinda sorta like a central bank rate), but it... really isn't. Because it has an ill-specified withdrawal time.

Re: Is this the end of crypto?

#368

Post by acdha »

luddit3 wrote: post #294
compsciphd wrote: post #221

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd go a step further with the comparison to gold. If everyone would stop mining gold today, gold would retain value (or perhaps even go up in value). On the flipside, if we turned off all bitcoin miners today, bitcoin would go to zero instantly (as its worthless without continuous resources being pumped into it). This is why I'm sympathetic to those who say its ponzi scheme, it only has value because of new resource…

And if we turned off the internet how many companies would be worthless, because that is about as likely to happen as all mining stopping.

Normal people would notice and agitate for the internet to be restored. Most people’s daily lives would be significantly impacted.

In contrast, only speculators would notice bitcoin going offline. They might laugh at the guys who told them they weren’t going to make it but that’d be it. Nothing would break, nobody would be in line ahead of them failing to buy something, etc.

That matters because bitcoin’s floor value is zero: as a very weak fiat currency, the only reason to use it is when you think it’ll be profitable and if that confidence drops miners will stop putting more hard money into the system.

Re: Is this the end of crypto?

#369

Post by AlotOfReading »

origin_path wrote: post #292
AlotOfReading wrote: post #240

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I remember getting into Bitcoin in early 2010 when the pizza thing happened. Even back then it was hyped to me as an investment and an alternative to the corrupt financial system. There's always been an undercurrent of this stuff. The eternal September came years later, after big scams like Mt Gox had already long imploded.

Mt Gox wasn't a scam, just very poorly run.

I guess you could argue that it wasn't a scam because it wasn't the leadership doing the theft, but it's a bit of a meaningless distinction in the end. Lots of bitcoins were stolen, withdrawals were halted, and customers lost their money regardless.

Re: Is this the end of crypto?

#370

Post by mechanical_bear »

mjburgess wrote: post #185
mechanical_bear wrote: post #180

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, in the end, at least you admit it. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

You realise, I'm being sarcastic... I was playing the part of a crypto-advocate who doesnt know any of those things, and so thinks that a database is going to solve questions about the design of political and economic institutions. It's a genuinely profoundly misinformed view, exploited by scammers. It's so egregiously misformed it's popularity is incomprehensible. It's a lot like those on the far-left who think all…

Yes…and you do realize that I was being sarcastic in turn? Sheesh. You are not doing yourself any favors.
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