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Is this the end of crypto?

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Re: Is this the end of crypto?

#281

Post by canadianwriter »

legutierr wrote: post #92

We are making steady and inexorable progress through the technology hype cycle. From earlier this year: https://emtemp.gcom.cloud/ngw/globalassets/en/articles/image... Now we enter the Trough of Disillusionment. Given the general accuracy of this model/metaphor in the past, should we consider it to be any different this time around?

As others have said: what about the stuff that never catches on?

3D TVs AR glasses Luggage that follows you around phones with projectors built in Segway etc

Re: Is this the end of crypto?

#282

Post by stephc_int13 »

compsciphd wrote: post #221
P5fRxh5kUvp2th wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When bitcoin first came onto the scene I personally knew a guy who was running a website to act as an exchange. It was small because bitcoin itself at that time was very small. Then bitcoin had its very first dip and it became unprofitable to mine bitcoins. When that happened he shuttered the website and kept everyone's bitcoins. I knew of bitcoin early on due to this guy, but even then I had no interest and consider…

I'd go a step further with the comparison to gold. If everyone would stop mining gold today, gold would retain value (or perhaps even go up in value). On the flipside, if we turned off all bitcoin miners today, bitcoin would go to zero instantly (as its worthless without continuous resources being pumped into it). This is why I'm sympathetic to those who say its ponzi scheme, it only has value because of new resource…

I've read elsewhere that below $13K it is not profitable to mine bitcoins.

We're very close to this threshold now, given what is happening now and during the next few weeks I would not be surprised if BTC is going below that threshold.

I think it's time to stash a few bottles of champagne.

Re: Is this the end of crypto?

#283

Post by dragontamer »

TacticalCoder wrote: post #251
dragontamer wrote: post #32

Fundamental issues of cryptocurrency economy: 1. Biggest pushers are seemingly tech-bros from FANG companies. These companies are laying off staff in record numbers. The biggest cryptocoin believers therefore, will have less income than ever before (in ~3 months or so, after their severance is paid, they'll have to start drawing on savings if they didn't get a job yet... and getting a job in this economy is going to…

> 3. Inflation. Instead of being a hedge on inflation, cryptocoins collapsed in the face of it. I don't disagree with the other points but... That one remains to be seen. Bitcoin was precisely created as a gigantic middle finger to the central bank's endless money printing to bail out the financial system. That's the message in the genesis block ("Chancellor on the brink of second bank bail out": it's as political as…

> You get, what, 5% on your USD: great. But real inflation is, say, 12%. So that's still 7% down.

Sure. But lets say you put $100,000 into BTC last year, exactly 1-year ago. BTC's price on Nov 17, 2021 was $60,3xx or so. So you'd have 1.66 BTC. Today, that BTC is worth $16,650 or so. Or $27,639

Then, real inflation is... I don't think 12% but I don't feel like arguing. So I'll use your numbers. According to your 12% inflation number, you're at $24322.32 in 2021 dollars.

That is to say, if I stuck with US Dollars, I'd largely have most of my money. If you used BTC, you'd have lost most of your money.

---------

We've had the big inflation event that the BTC community was "hoping" for for years. And BTC *FAILED* the test. Everyone who bet on an "inflation hedge" lost most of their money.

> I was all in cash after the war in Ukraine started

I bought oil. An oldie but a goodie strategy. Wars need oil, and Ukraine/Russia have substantial oil trade, so I knew that oil prices would rise.

Also, because oil is a huge component of inflation, its... like... actually an inflation hedge? (EDIT: I guess others could have bought food futures, like grain and/or corn, given the huge amount of Farmland in Ukraine that's been hampered by the war, plus also as an inflation hedge since Food is another major component of inflation. That would have done well too)

Re: Is this the end of crypto?

#284

Post by solumos »

ptudan wrote: post #205
1970-01-01 wrote: post #88

Here's how I see it: Crypto as an investment - Not your keys, not your coin. Crypto as a currency - I can't directly buy food, water, shelter, transportation, energy, or anything fundamental with it. I know acceptance is growing, but 10+ years later, crypto still has extremely limited acceptance for daily goods and services. It is almost exclusively held as an investment.

I work for a crypto payments firm We're getting there and you can already use our product at 50k+ stores in the US. Even in this market, merchants are still interested. We launched new ones this week. Comparing us to Visa or Paypal we are rinky dinky af, no denying that. But we are definitely growing. Your lens of investment vs currency is also very US based. Consider countries that frequently experience huge rates o…

I also work for a crypto payments firm

There's a lot of interest in taking crypto payments mainstream, but large, established institutions are unwilling to expose themselves to the regulatory risk they would take on by building this stuff.

A lot of these folks express extreme skepticism in the media, but are super willing to talk/partner in private.

Re: Is this the end of crypto?

#286

Post by TacticalCoder »

nineplay wrote: post #112

I'm not a crypto user so I may not understand the ramifications, but while I can see why "imminent death of crypto" headlines seem like clickbait, is it fair to say that this is the end of the crypto exchanges? This is the end of the your average Joe investing in crypto because they saw a cool ad during the Super Bowl? I could understand how that would translate to "gone" in the practical sense. There will still be t…

> ... is it fair to say that this is the end of the crypto exchanges?

I think it's fair to say that exchanges and websites promising 8% or 15% year-on-year returns are done. They're not coming back any time soon. They'll now be called out by everybody. And probably legislated out of existence too.

But the end of Coinbase? Coinbase seems legit. Sadly for them the very bank they're using, Silvergate (ticker SI), may be a goner. So USDCs emitted by Coinbase may or may not be worthless (and moreover seizable by the state to bail out Coinbase investors before Coinbase customers).

I'd like to see how exposed to Silvergate Coinbase is.

I hope Bitfinex dies a painful death. I hope Binance crashes and burn.

I hope every single exchange accepting USDTs falls.

But I do hope Coinbase, a HN unicorn, survives.

Re: Is this the end of crypto?

#287

Post by mmkos »

sys_64738 wrote: post #232

Did anybody on here make any $$$ from crypto? It was all a scam in my eyes so I just focused on VTI.

Yes. I made $30k by selling dogecoin that I bought all the way back in 2014. Not a fortune by any means, but a respectable amount nonetheless.

Re: Is this the end of crypto?

#288

Post by nawgz »

P5fRxh5kUvp2th wrote: post #226
dang wrote: post #220

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Please don't post HN threads flameward. It's not what this site is for, and destroys what it is for. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

One could argue that the complete and utter strawman by the other poster is more likely to start a flamewar than someone asking if they understood the actual point. But let me guess, if I press you on this I'm going to get banned in a week or so for such and such reason. something something assume good faith?

The other poster took the idea you expressed - that "[crypto is] 100% speculative and nothing else" - and further explored the idea, and some markets they have seen where the price action either devolves or remains rational.

What exactly did he do that was a "strawman"? Why are you so angry? It was an interesting comment thread, and then you are acting as if persecuted by the other commenter and HN moderators.

Re: Is this the end of crypto?

#289

Post by w1nst0nsm1th »

randomdata wrote: post #245
P5fRxh5kUvp2th wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When bitcoin first came onto the scene I personally knew a guy who was running a website to act as an exchange. It was small because bitcoin itself at that time was very small. Then bitcoin had its very first dip and it became unprofitable to mine bitcoins. When that happened he shuttered the website and kept everyone's bitcoins. I knew of bitcoin early on due to this guy, but even then I had no interest and consider…

> It's not possible for the value of gold to go to zero The price might go to zero, though. The price of oil, which is arguably more useful than gold, went negative a couple of years back. Having intrinsic value doesn't necessarily mean it is exchangeable, especially if it needs to be exchanged at a given moment in time.

Oil (and gas) are specific cases, not relatable to gold...

The point with oil is its extraction can't be stoped overnight, and thus has to be stored in case of excessive production, which has itself a cost.

Demand droped significantly when the lockdown occured ; storage facilities where saturated ; and oil was kept in oil tankers which are pretty expensive.

The negative price reflected the cost of storage.

There is no such issue with gold.

Re: Is this the end of crypto?

#290

Post by shawabawa3 »

stephc_int13 wrote: post #282
compsciphd wrote: post #221

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd go a step further with the comparison to gold. If everyone would stop mining gold today, gold would retain value (or perhaps even go up in value). On the flipside, if we turned off all bitcoin miners today, bitcoin would go to zero instantly (as its worthless without continuous resources being pumped into it). This is why I'm sympathetic to those who say its ponzi scheme, it only has value because of new resource…

I've read elsewhere that below $13K it is not profitable to mine bitcoins. We're very close to this threshold now, given what is happening now and during the next few weeks I would not be surprised if BTC is going below that threshold. I think it's time to stash a few bottles of champagne.

The protocol self adjusts so that it's always profitable to mine bitcoins

As it becomes unprofitable miners stop, and the difficulty drops so that it becomes cheaper to mine, until it reaches an equilibrium

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