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Is this the end of crypto?

economist.com

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Re: Is this the end of crypto?

#231
post #154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You excluded the first part of that paragraph: > We show that the vast majority of Bitcoin transactions between real entities are for trading and speculative purposes. Starting from 2015, 75% of the real bitcoin volume has been linked to exchanges or exchange-like entities such as on-line wallets, OTC desks, and large institutional traders. So 75% of the transactions are just speculative trading, not transactions for…

Illegal transactions are also 11-12% of the USA's economy.[1] In 2019, forex volume was $6.6T per day [2], or $1716T per year. Meanwhile global GDP was only $87.5T [3]. In other words, almost 95% of global currency volume is speculation. Why would anyone use currencies that are mainly used for speculation? Both the traditional and crypto economies are reflections of human behavior, but because crypto is more transpar…

> Illegal transactions are also 11-12% of the USA's economy.[1]

Much of that figure are payments for untaxed, but otherwise legal activities. On the other hand, crypto figures are straight up payments for illegal activities.

Re: Is this the end of crypto?

#233

It will continue to fall under increased scrutiny and market regulation until it's no longer profitable to run any kind of financial system on it. There will still be believers and people who will throw money at it and try. But I think they will have a harder time convincing investors going forward. I suspect it will end up mirroring the MLM market: still there, still profitable for a few, but depends largely on an u…

I would argue it's already Avon for tech bros.

That $10,000 Avon "investment" by a teacher making $30k is similar to a $100,000 crypto "investment" by a tech bro making $300k.

Re: Is this the end of crypto?

#234

Which will come first: the year of the linux desktop, full self driving teslas or the death of crypto?

Hell, we're already in the age of the linux desktop, we're just not calling it that:

> At 37 million units, Chromebooks represent just under 11 percent of the total PC market, ahead of the Mac, with 27 million units and a 7.8 percent share.

https://www.thurrott.com/mobile/chrome-os/chromebook/262126/...

Re: Is this the end of crypto?

#235

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The government doesn't need a cryptocoin to monitor transactions, or to make using paper currency illegal. It can already do what you think it needs a cryptocoin to do, and it doesn't do it because it supports wealthy people being able to launder money and avoid taxes. US politics runs entirely on laundered money and misdirected/avoided taxes. You're lobbying for the swamp.

I anticipate CBDC being something for the peons to use, not the elite. Yes, the government can monitor transactions, but it currently has to jump through a lot more loopholes to do so. I understand and agree with your sentiment, with the additional point that smaller banks are also going to be made obsolete if a CBDC is rolled out. But the wealthy and connected will most certainly have their own way of getting around…

At this point, if HN is any indication, they deserve it.

Re: Is this the end of crypto?

#236

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When bitcoin first came onto the scene I personally knew a guy who was running a website to act as an exchange. It was small because bitcoin itself at that time was very small. Then bitcoin had its very first dip and it became unprofitable to mine bitcoins. When that happened he shuttered the website and kept everyone's bitcoins. I knew of bitcoin early on due to this guy, but even then I had no interest and consider…

I'd go a step further with the comparison to gold. If everyone would stop mining gold today, gold would retain value (or perhaps even go up in value). On the flipside, if we turned off all bitcoin miners today, bitcoin would go to zero instantly (as its worthless without continuous resources being pumped into it). This is why I'm sympathetic to those who say its ponzi scheme, it only has value because of new resource…

Nitpicking but

>if we turned off all bitcoin miners today, bitcoin would go to zero instantly

isn't true. You couldn't trade them normally with the miners off but you could start mining up the day after - it only takes a couple of computers really.

Re: Is this the end of crypto?

#237

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> When that happened he shuttered the website and kept everyone's bitcoins. > I knew of bitcoin early on due to this guy, but even then I had no interest and considered it bullshit. Then when I saw what this guy did it just solidified my opinion that it can't be trusted. But isn't it instead an early lesson in "not your keys not your coin" maxim that Bitcoin advocates preach? > If the value of gold crashes it still h…

>it's bulky Slight nitpick, Total gold above the earth's surface is less than a cube with sides 25 metres each.

For anyone that is curious, it's about 4.5 double chests of gold block stacks in minecraft. Not particularly difficult, but a challenge nonetheless.

Re: Is this the end of crypto?

#239

I can only hope crypto dies soon. Its actively a violation of the GDPR and this illegal in the EU. It violates human rights laws, including privacy laws, and is this illegal in most other places. It violates all the laws around SWIFT, at the international level, so its illegal under these laws. It never should have existed. Its a grift and a scam; Even NFT's vanish when the host doesn't want the expense of hosting ot…

> It violates all the laws around SWIFT, at the international level, so its illegal under these laws.

But SWIFT itself is working with a "crypto" project:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/smallbusiness/swift-is-partn...

Re: Is this the end of crypto?

#240

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When bitcoin first came onto the scene I personally knew a guy who was running a website to act as an exchange. It was small because bitcoin itself at that time was very small. Then bitcoin had its very first dip and it became unprofitable to mine bitcoins. When that happened he shuttered the website and kept everyone's bitcoins. I knew of bitcoin early on due to this guy, but even then I had no interest and consider…

Broadscale, crypto seems to have had an "Eternal September" moment and I think that's where the problems really began. Back in the early days before crypto entered the mainstream, it was pretty much like any other internet project. It was cool to be able to buy a pizza with internet funny money but by then it was still pretty small and everyone knew the inherent risks. Then came the "Eternal September" where cryto we…

I remember getting into Bitcoin in early 2010 when the pizza thing happened. Even back then it was hyped to me as an investment and an alternative to the corrupt financial system.

There's always been an undercurrent of this stuff. The eternal September came years later, after big scams like Mt Gox had already long imploded.

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