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I'm starting to think LEGO is evil

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Re: I'm starting to think LEGO is evil

#281
post #278

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think this is actually a pretty reasonable statement, as long as it includes the caveat "on average" or "most of the time". Just as Down's syndrome isn't a huge problem for a population -- as long as it stays relatively uncommon. Certainly. In the field of evolution, "on average", "statistically", or "most of the time" should be assumed to attach itself to almost every sentence (including this one). All of this can…

I'm a bit doubtful about the statistics, and I think I know why. There's a circularity to your use of "deleterious mutations" and "bad mutation." Is the mutation which causes sickle-cell anaemia a "good mutation" or a "bad mutation"? It increases reproductive fitness in places where malaria is or was common, so it must be good, in an evolutionary sense. How many deaths has it caused once the population of people carr…

Yes, the one-mutation-one-death idea is vastly oversimplified when it comes to the real world, so I shouldn't have presented it as being more meaningful than it is. But while it can't be taken as a mathematical truth in the unsimplified real world, the "moral of the story" will holds (that worse mutations can't spread as far as less bad ones).

It's rather simple to prove in the simplified case, it's just a typical steady state assumption. If a population is in an equilibrium state, then the rate at which any mutation is introduced has to be equal to the rate at which it is removed from the population. So if one mutation has a 1% chance to kill its owner each generation, then to maintain equilibrium (in other words, to make sure the prevalence of the mutated gene in the population is stable), every time the mutation shows up anew, it must spread to 100 people, killing one of them. One mutation, one death.

Yes, that's super simplified, it neglects the possibility of multiple mutations, positive or neutral ones, back-mutation, interactions between members of the population, non-equilibrium states, etc. These will change the details of the math, sometimes quite substantially.

But the basic idea, that the worse a mutation is the less prevalent it will be, should hold.

Re: I'm starting to think LEGO is evil

#282
post #277

Earlier quoted context omitted.

bermanoid wrote: "You're invoking group selection here" ... "it's a classic prisoner's dilemma situation, and if you're going to take one lesson from Dawkins, it's that evolution always chooses to defect)" It's kin selection, not group selection. Consider Dawkins' "Twelve Misunderstandings of Kin Selection" wherein he writes: "To stick my neck out a little, it seems to me that, far from genes for altruistic behaviour…

Ah, you're absolutely correct, I did misunderstand what you were saying - indeed, your argument is a classic example of kin selection, I'm just so used to hearing group selection arguments that I jumped the gun [1] (when I wrote "given your comment above, I'm surprised that you would make this argument" that should have been my first clue that you did, in fact, know better). You're 100% right that help-out-those-with…

Whoa! There's agreement on the internet! :)

Re: I'm starting to think LEGO is evil

#283
post #278

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm a bit doubtful about the statistics, and I think I know why. There's a circularity to your use of "deleterious mutations" and "bad mutation." Is the mutation which causes sickle-cell anaemia a "good mutation" or a "bad mutation"? It increases reproductive fitness in places where malaria is or was common, so it must be good, in an evolutionary sense. How many deaths has it caused once the population of people carr…

Yes, the one-mutation-one-death idea is vastly oversimplified when it comes to the real world, so I shouldn't have presented it as being more meaningful than it is. But while it can't be taken as a mathematical truth in the unsimplified real world, the "moral of the story" will holds (that worse mutations can't spread as far as less bad ones). It's rather simple to prove in the simplified case, it's just a typical st…

With the steady-state assumption, doesn't every beneficial mutation also lead to a single death?

Re: I'm starting to think LEGO is evil

#284
post #282

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ah, you're absolutely correct, I did misunderstand what you were saying - indeed, your argument is a classic example of kin selection, I'm just so used to hearing group selection arguments that I jumped the gun [1] (when I wrote "given your comment above, I'm surprised that you would make this argument" that should have been my first clue that you did, in fact, know better). You're 100% right that help-out-those-with…

Whoa! There's agreement on the internet! :)

Being proven wrong once is worth being right a hundred times; it's only when we realize we're wrong that we learn anything useful. In this case, I was reminded of an evolutionary fact that I hadn't thought about in quite a long time, and that's fully worth being wrong.

In theory, agreements should be more common than they are (sadly) in practice: http://www.scottaaronson.com/papers/agree-econ.pdf

What I've always wondered is which particular assumption of Aumann's agreement theorem is usually lacking on the Internet: honesty, rationality, common priors, or simply the willingness to continue the conversation long enough to resolve the disagreement.

Re: I'm starting to think LEGO is evil

#285
post #283

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, the one-mutation-one-death idea is vastly oversimplified when it comes to the real world, so I shouldn't have presented it as being more meaningful than it is. But while it can't be taken as a mathematical truth in the unsimplified real world, the "moral of the story" will holds (that worse mutations can't spread as far as less bad ones). It's rather simple to prove in the simplified case, it's just a typical st…

With the steady-state assumption, doesn't every beneficial mutation also lead to a single death?

Beneficial and neutral mutations are essentially left out of the equation - they would spread to 100% of the population, so in the steady state, the probability of mutation newly creating a beneficial mutation has to be 0% (since it's already present in every member).

The motivation for ignoring beneficial mutations (and back-mutations to beneficial states) is that they're extremely rare as compared to deleterious ones - most selection pressure in nature is aimed at merely preserving the functionality in the genome, weeding out new deleterious mutations rather than supporting new beneficial ones (though that is a critical role in the very long term, of course).

Re: I'm starting to think LEGO is evil

#286
post #282

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Whoa! There's agreement on the internet! :)

Being proven wrong once is worth being right a hundred times; it's only when we realize we're wrong that we learn anything useful. In this case, I was reminded of an evolutionary fact that I hadn't thought about in quite a long time, and that's fully worth being wrong. In theory, agreements should be more common than they are (sadly) in practice: http://www.scottaaronson.com/papers/agree-econ.pdf What I've always won…

I lean very much against the idea of rationality, in the precise economic sense used by Aumann and others. I find the work of the behavioral economists more believable. I believe there is some truth in the saying that the only people who make economically rational decisions are economists and sociopaths.

BTW, in this thread I learned that I need to be more careful about how I use the term "population." :)

Re: I'm starting to think LEGO is evil

#287
post #283

Earlier quoted context omitted.

With the steady-state assumption, doesn't every beneficial mutation also lead to a single death?

Beneficial and neutral mutations are essentially left out of the equation - they would spread to 100% of the population, so in the steady state, the probability of mutation newly creating a beneficial mutation has to be 0% (since it's already present in every member). The motivation for ignoring beneficial mutations (and back-mutations to beneficial states) is that they're extremely rare as compared to deleterious on…

I still think that your definition of beneficial and deleterious is defined post-hoc as "survives/does not survive long enough to reach the stable state."

In my example earlier regarding extinct bird species on New Zealand, were there ever any beneficial mutations? After all, the genes no longer reproduce.

My point is that there is no stable state, so it's better to have a shorter-term definition of "beneficial" and "deleterious" based on relative reproduction fitness compared to others in the species population over a short time frame.

Additionally, beneficial and neutral mutations do not always spread to 100% of the species population. A Y-linked trait won't spread without a male lineage.

Re: I'm starting to think LEGO is evil

#288
post #287

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Beneficial and neutral mutations are essentially left out of the equation - they would spread to 100% of the population, so in the steady state, the probability of mutation newly creating a beneficial mutation has to be 0% (since it's already present in every member). The motivation for ignoring beneficial mutations (and back-mutations to beneficial states) is that they're extremely rare as compared to deleterious on…

I still think that your definition of beneficial and deleterious is defined post-hoc as "survives/does not survive long enough to reach the stable state." In my example earlier regarding extinct bird species on New Zealand, were there ever any beneficial mutations? After all, the genes no longer reproduce. My point is that there is no stable state, so it's better to have a shorter-term definition of "beneficial" and…

I still think that your definition of beneficial and deleterious is defined post-hoc as "survives/does not survive long enough to reach the stable state."

Yup, that's a pretty good description of the assumption/definition, for all the good and bad things it brings with it; I mostly agree with the rest of what you've said.

FWIW, I've mainly seen the one-mutation-one-death rule applied to arguments that attempted to place informational speed or capacity limits on the process of evolution, and in most cases it has turned out that these arguments fail when applied to the real world because of precisely the types of arguments that you've made against this rule (sexual recombination and the fact that evolution is never in a steady state tend to be the biggest problems).

An aside on the topic of defining beneficial/deleterious mutations: the problem is a very difficult one, because in reality the effect of a mutation is at best distributional and not measurable along a single axis of goodness/badness. I don't know much about the state of the art here, but if I was going to sit down and try to figure out a way to try to estimate "benificial-ness" of a mutation (even as a distribution), I'd say you've put your finger on exactly the right question to focus on, that there's a tension between what might be immediately beneficial and what would be beneficial in the longer term. For instance, a gene that made someone have babies like crazy by always sacrificing one's grandchildren for nourishment would be fantastic for 1-generation-out fitness, but terrible for 2-generations-out. Similarly, in an environment where pre-reproductive death was very common, an adaptation that decreased the likelihood to have children by a small factor but significantly increased the ability to keep them alive would be very beneficial at 2-generations but deleterious at 1. So pure-local effects measured 1 generation down the line won't necessarily tell us enough (though in the vast majority of cases, it's probably good enough).

On the other hand, a purely-global view is not right either, because as you've mentioned, environmental changes or genetic shifts within the species can turn previously helpful traits into "bad" ones. So measuring regret after the fact will not suffice, and further, it misses the fact that at the moment the mutation happens, there is some distribution that describes the likely outcomes of that mutation given the current state of the world, using no information from the future (even if we don't know it or can't feasibly calculate it). The extinct bird species definitely had beneficial mutations even though some freak event wiped them out later, and we need to account for that. So something more subtle is required.

In order to do better we'd probably have to make some assumptions to eventually cut off the familial dependencies, like perhaps that the presence or absence of a gene in an N-th grandparent can have no direct causal effect on the survival of the animal in question (i.e. direct nurture effects are limited in time - even this assumption is questionable in the face of things like family wealth). We'd also have to assume that we could quantify the expected changes in the environment into some sort of distribution, including distributional assumptions for expected changes in the rest of the population (luckily these changes should be rather slow, when measured in generations). Then we could in theory compare the expected size of a family tree branching from a member that possesses a new mutation after that N-th generation, to the base case, the family tree without that mutation. Of course, the "expected size" is a trivialization of the real distribution, which would better describe the possible effects of a mutation (and the details of that distribution might strongly effect the population dynamics).

It quickly gets messy, and requires a lot of assumptions. And even after all that, we wouldn't have a very clean number to work with, i.e. we couldn't easily continuous-ize the situation and write down an ODE that took the "beneficial-ness" of a mutation and showed us what would happen, because other details of the distribution would be important, as well.

Re: I'm starting to think LEGO is evil

#289
post #141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> hard wired I keep on hearing those words with respect to brains. I do not think they mean what you think they mean. Brains are not "hard wired" for much. They are really quite malleable and adaptable. They are affected by many things in the environment; experience, culture, training. The biggest differences between male and female children will come about from how they are raised, not innate differences. Once they…

You state these things as if they are fact. I disagree. People are born with different strengths and weaknesses. They may have particular skill in certain areas. If brains are just "general" "maleable" "matter", then why as a man am I attracted to women and not men? I certainly didn't "learn" that. I'm attracted to women, because my brain was hard wired like that. So you don't think people are "born gay"?

Sure, different people will have different strengths and weaknesses. But that's different than "hard-wired." You may have some natural talent or predisposition, or you may have some particular disability or difficulty with something. But most of those can be melded and shaped by your environment, your culture, your experiences, your hormones, practice and learning, your desires, and the like.

I've known several people who have transitioned between genders. Were they "hard-wired" the way you claim they are? One of them, who transitioned to being a man, took testosterone as part of the transition (and presumably still does). He reports that the testosterone was significant in changing some of his behaviors to being more masculine; when upset, he has a harder time crying than he did before. Now, is that what you would call "hard-wired"?

I don't pretend to know whether you are born gay, or if it's something environmental during your childhood, or whether it really is more flexible than some people like to admit. Surely there is a predisposition to be attracted to the opposite sex; but that doesn't meet the criteria I would use for "hard-wired."

"Hard-wired" says that something is absolute; immutable. It cannot be changed. There is a binary; you are either this way, or you are that way. And that's just not how people work; at least, behaviorally, for the vast majority of behaviors. Really, there are multitudes of different axes on which people's behavior differs; and while their sex might influence their behavior a bit, the results tend to be overlapping bell curves with slightly different averages, not two entirely different sets of behaviors.

The whole "women do this, men do that" or "hard wired" type of reasoning is an over-simplification, which is amplified culturally.

(sorry for the late followup, I didn't see this comment until just now)

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