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The good delusion: has effective altruism broken bad?

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Re: The good delusion: has effective altruism broken bad?

#551

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Language, writing, books, school, science and computers never raised anybody's IQ. Whether IQ took us to the moon is still a topic of debate, as is whether IQ is equal to or only part of intelligence. But it's clear that language, books, school, science and computers absolutely did take us to the moon. Clearly all of these things improved our intellectual effectiveness , and that's what matters, regardless of wheth…

> Cryptocurrency makes this trivial. All computer systems likely also have vulnerabilities, including financial systems. An AI can probe these systems around the clock, or can subtly introduce vulnerabilities into our vulnerable software supply chains. These are only two among many options that are entirely within the realm of plausibility. And there it is: the assumption that AGI will, necessarily , be capable of ha…

> And there it is: the assumption that AGI will, necessarily, be capable of hacking effectively any computer system, no matter how well-secured.

Where did I say they are capable of hacking any computer system no matter how well secured?

I said that software vulnerabilities exist, that software supply chains are known to be vulnerable, that even financial institutions are vulnerable. These are all documented facts.

An AI doesn't have to successfully hack any computer system, it only needs to successfully hack one financial computer system to create an account that can send and receive money. Given it can plausibly attempt to do so consistently around the clock via numerous means (like vulnerable software supply chains or other exploits), the chances of it doing so successfully against any of the tens of thousands of banking systems around the world over a timespan of years seems plausibly certain. And that's only for the things it needs that require some kind of official financial account, it can do plenty with cryptocurrency alone.

Boy do you skeptics love your strawman arguments.

Re: The good delusion: has effective altruism broken bad?

#552
post #545
post #540

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If I tell you that repetitive railing against Marxism is tedious and off-topic, does that make me a Marxist? what if I tell you that repetitive railing against capitalism is just as tedious and off-topic? Every passionate ideologue thinks that the mods are secretly against them ( https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=true&que... ). This you're-just-moderating-me-because-you-don't-like-my-opinion percept…

If you're bored, tired, and profoundly don't care, you should stop doing this job. We don't need the moderation on HN any more.

That state of mind is a prerequisite for being a good moderator.

I'm not saying I'm a good moderator; there are other prerequisites.

Re: The good delusion: has effective altruism broken bad?

#553

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can replace "infinity" with any suitably huge number; I don't need to quibble over tenths, hundredths, and thousandths of a percentile risk that something is going to happen.

You absolutely do have to quibble over those numbers. Or do you not think we should be tracking asteroids either because they only kill 95% of all life once every few hundred million years?

I do not think people should be directing money to asteroid charities, no. It's their money, they can do what they want, but if their discipline demands that they do that, it's a bad discipline.

Re: The good delusion: has effective altruism broken bad?

#554
post #545

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you're bored, tired, and profoundly don't care, you should stop doing this job. We don't need the moderation on HN any more.

I strongly disagree. Without dang, the site would devolve, slowly at first, but steadily accelerating, until it reaches the lowest common denominator.

because people like me post things like this? https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33626587 I really doubt it.

But it's probably inevitable that Hacker News will wither and go away (or at least stop being a place that attracts people like me). Eventually, somethign will replace HN like something replaced Slashdot (which had fantastic comments with not that much moderation, back in the day) and Usenet.

Re: The good delusion: has effective altruism broken bad?

#555
post #552
post #545

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you're bored, tired, and profoundly don't care, you should stop doing this job. We don't need the moderation on HN any more.

That state of mind is a prerequisite for being a good moderator. I'm not saying I'm a good moderator; there are other prerequisites.

Objectively speaking you are one of the least-bad moderators I've seen in 30+ years of internet communications. But I wish you'd stop giving me a hard time about my comments as they are intended in good faith and written carefully with specific goals in mind (changing opinions as well as being amusing) and I honestly see far worse crap than my comments go unchallenged.

Re: The good delusion: has effective altruism broken bad?

#556

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> rather than interacting with the actual practitioners of the field and understanding what is happening, what are the very real limitations of it, and why their assumptions range from willfully ignorant to often simply maliciously stupid. On the other hand, I've found that "practitioners in the field" often consistently overestimate how complex and different the human mind is from our computers. Take the recent "LaM…

You don't need to have a deep and complex understanding of human sentience to be able to put some lower bounds on what it means to be sentient. I don't know about sentience , as such; however, I believe there are at least two bare-bones prerequisites to an AI being conscious as we understand the term: 1. Continuity of input: The AI needs to be constantly "on", constantly receiving input of some sort, and constantly a…

> Continuity of input: The AI needs to be constantly "on", constantly receiving input of some sort, and constantly able to produce output, rather than being strictly limited to producing discrete responses to discrete stimuli.

Why can't it be conscious merely while the computation is running? You aren't constantly on, you're ostensibly only conscious 16-20 hours every day, while you're not sleeping.

> Continuity of learning: In addition, the AI needs to be continually update its "mental model" of the world—in effect, constantly "learning" and re-training its neural network on the input it receives.

I'm not sure what learning has to do with consciousness, and I'm absolutely certain you don't either. I frankly find it hard to believe that Zen Buddhists are not conscious during their meditations, despite having empty minds and not "constantly updating their mental models of the world-in-effect".

> But I, personally, believe they are both necessary for it to be even worth starting to consider whether a given AI might be. And I believe that consciousness is a prerequisite for sentience.

See, this is what I'm talking about. That's a fine personal belief, but that belief does not rise to the level of expert testimony of the facts even if you are a machine learning expert.

People have made all sorts of assumptions about the human mind that they have never questioned but take as obvious fact, and then pontificate that AI is clearly not doing this, therefore AI cannot share such and such properties with humans. But the fact is, most of those assumptions are just wrong. Without a mechanistic model of how these systems work in the brain we are not going to make a valid comparison against what AI is doing.

I agree in general that we can set some bounds, but those bounds are neither as firm as, nor are they placed where most people think.

Re: The good delusion: has effective altruism broken bad?

#557

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You absolutely do have to quibble over those numbers. Or do you not think we should be tracking asteroids either because they only kill 95% of all life once every few hundred million years?

I do not think people should be directing money to asteroid charities, no. It's their money, they can do what they want, but if their discipline demands that they do that, it's a bad discipline.

So to make sure I get this straight, if a plausible calculation suggested that we could see an extinction-level asteroid hurtling towards us in the next hundred years, you don't think that asteroid detection is worth funding via any means, like charities or governments?

Re: The good delusion: has effective altruism broken bad?

#558

Admittedly the SBF debacle is the first time I’ve heard of EA, but I don’t think it’s surprising that it’s attracted such characters. Frankly it strikes me as just sketchy moral accounting, where you can be as greedy or exploitative as you want to be as long as you’re contributing to something that you can justify as having a higher “moral score”, but in the end you’re doing all the calculations and all the numbers a…

... and that's bad for the actual altruistic causes because? Yes there are such people. I don't think they would be less greedy and exploitative if they didn't have a way to feel better about it. They would find another way to feel better, perhaps one that doesn't have the side effect of actually help out random people that would benefit from that help.

> and that's bad for the actual altruistic causes because

Because if all the numbers are made up, you don’t actually know what is an “altruistic” choice. You can say, gamble with other peoples money, and justify it by donating 10% of the returns to charity. And if the math works out in your head, it’s all good.

> Yes there are such people. I don't think they would be less greedy and exploitative if they didn't have a way to feel better about it.

Lol, we’re arguing about a moral philosophy here, and your argument is that anything bad that people do, keeping in line with the philosophy is irrelevant?

It’s also not that “there are such people”. I’m saying that EA will disproportionately attract the greedy because fundamentally it argues that you can buy your way into altruism. It’s the Catholic Church selling indulgences for the 21st century.

Re: The good delusion: has effective altruism broken bad?

#559

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s not the amount you donate relative to others, it’s the amount you donate relative to how much you are capable of donating. Not many people would work a high-stress, high-barrier-to-entry job and give away almost everything they earned, while their peers live richly. Even if we accept that the average person usually acts morally when confronted with an obvious moral choice, they still fall morally behind someone…

That is not what Scott Aaronson said. It's what you might believe; fair enough! Sacrificial giving is a big thing in the religion I belong to, too! Aaronson is making a point that minmaxing absolute donations (even, in this specific case, if it means defrauding thousands of customers) is a pathway towards moral superiority.

I think I'm confused about whether you're rejecting the proposition about the investor all on its own, or if it's the broader argument from the Aaronson post that you're rejecting. Your parenthetical makes me think we're not talking about the charitable-investor-propsition anymore; we're now talking about a specific investor who did something that appears to have been very risky and possibly very unethical.

My interpretation of Aaronson is that he thinks the hypothetical charitable investor is a good example of a very moral person, and we can use that example to imagine how we might have felt about SBF in an alternate universe where his bets paid off. But Aaronson also concludes:

> At any rate, I’d try to impress on him, as I do on anyone reading now, that the choice between linear and concave utilities, between risk-neutrality and risk-aversion, is not bloodless or technical—that it’s essential to make a choice that’s not only in reflective equilibrium with your highest values, but that you’ll still consider to be such regardless of which possible universe you end up in.

This isn't a post lionizing SBF. He is compared to but also contrasted with the "charitable traditional investor". The contrast is the degree of risk which, as you say, could be considered fraud. I don't come away from this thinking that Aaronson believes that SBF in particular is "way ahead of most of us morally".

Re: The good delusion: has effective altruism broken bad?

#560
post #555
post #552

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That state of mind is a prerequisite for being a good moderator. I'm not saying I'm a good moderator; there are other prerequisites.

Objectively speaking you are one of the least-bad moderators I've seen in 30+ years of internet communications. But I wish you'd stop giving me a hard time about my comments as they are intended in good faith and written carefully with specific goals in mind (changing opinions as well as being amusing) and I honestly see far worse crap than my comments go unchallenged.

Thanks—I appreciate the kind words. I think there are two things going on here.

First, I'm sure you're right that far worse crap goes unchallenged. But that's not because it's ok (it's not), nor because moderators are choosing to go easier on them (we're not). Rather, it's for the same reason that only a small portion of speeding drivers actually gets pulled over and ticketed: there are way too many to catch them all. In other words, when you see a post that ought to have been moderated but hasn't been, the likeliest explanation is that we simply didn't see it—there are far too many posts for us to read them all. You can help by flagging such cases or emailing us at hn@ycombinator.com.

Second, I believe you that you're posting in good faith and with good intentions. Unfortunately, intent isn't enough—it doesn't communicate itself on the internet, especially not in these tiny little blobs of comment text. You have to include enough information to disambiguate your intent (https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=true&que...).

It's common for commenters to assume that their posts will land with readers in a way that is consistent with the intent they have in mind. Unfortunately, they often don't—because while you have your intent in your head, the rest of us don't (I don't mean "you" personally, of course—it's the same for everybody). This is what leads to the 'rebound' phenomenon where someone posts a snarky one-liner or otherwise breaks the site guidelines, and then when a moderator asks them not to, they reply with the thoughtful, substantive comment they actually had in their head*. The problem is that all that good information doesn't communicate itself. You have to spell it out explicitly.

* A case of this from earlier today: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33623956

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