What Happened at Alameda Research

Post by danem » Tue, Nov 15, 2022, 6:09 PM UTC

SilverBirch wrote: post #286

jasmer wrote: post #220

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The NYT is not supposed to 'stick with what they can prove'. That's definitely not the bar they have or else they wouldn't be able to publish much. Journalists should be a bit cynical, dig for info. The NYT has more resources than anyone, and should be able to ask around, do some actual blockchain work, interview others. This story looks like one of the biggest frauds in history, likely because it is, it's the job of…

It's pretty insane to me that you think the NYT would ever deliberately print accusations they couldn't prove. I also think you're massively overstating the role of the NY Times, yes they have resources but they have to cover massive breadth. The NY Times isn't really going to be an expert in every topic, and there are real expert reporters out there who are going to dig in to this for specialist information. In this…

Post by SnowHill9902 » Tue, Nov 15, 2022, 6:46 PM UTC

anonymoushn wrote: post #122

SnowHill9902 wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Kelly criterion is not the best strategy for one. It’s the best strategy for an ensemble of ones in many universes but you can only live in one universe. It’s a nerd trap because it seems so elegant and reasonable.

This isn't true? If you aggregate utility across universes using addition and have utility linear in wealth then you maximize your aggregate utility by going all-in on every favorable bet. Kelly turns out to be equivalent to maximizing expected log-wealth, if one stays within a single universe, or to maximizing the probability that one will eventually have more wealth than any agent in the same universe that employs…

Post by rejectfinite » Tue, Nov 15, 2022, 6:57 PM UTC

thinkingemote wrote: post #87

remoroid wrote: post #54

For even more context of how bad SBF was at League of Legends, a large part of their player-base is children and teens. You would not expect a normal functioning 30 year old man to lose to 12 year olds after years of playing with the frequency he did.

From what I understand (only seen a game, not played it), League of Legends is more similar to Starcraft where it's about strategy, knowledge and timing than the necessary very fast reaction times of teenagers found in a first player shooter. You would expect even retired people to be good at the game if they played enough. Regardless, playing video games, doing drugs, looking dishevelled and being over weight are al…

Post by rrrrrrrrrrrryan » Tue, Nov 15, 2022, 7:51 PM UTC

DebtDeflation wrote: post #120

> Most news accounts seem to portray the scale of the bankruptcy as relatively small. This is a key point. They lost $16B in customer deposits. LTCM lost $4.6B in investor funds. Enron lost $11B in shareholder capital. Interestingly, while Madoff is widely quoted as having lost $65B, that was almost all fabricated paper wealth, actual losses were around $18B and $14.4B of that was recovered and returned. All of these…

Post by gruez » Tue, Nov 15, 2022, 7:54 PM UTC

pcthrowaway wrote: post #376

gruez wrote: post #263

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ironically keeping a short position to benefit from this collapse is pretty risky. Shorting requires leverage by necessity, which means you'll have to turn to an exchange like FTX, which has the possibility of collapsing. Decentralized lending protocols aren't much better, as collapses a few months ago has shown.

You can short by borrowing and selling as well. Even on-chain, though you're then susceptible to defi hacks that would affect your collateral