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FTX balance sheet, revealed

ft.com

241–250 of 309 posts

Re: FTX balance sheet, revealed

#241

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, they're not. The definition of "Ponzi scheme" is not "something financial I think is a scam" as most people use it. It's a very specific type of financial fraud. "Everything is a Ponzi" is a lazy analysis only made possible by having a lazy definition of what a Ponzi scheme is

Here's the definition: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/ponzischeme.asp I think the point is that there are more structures out there like this than we think. Social Security for example. Just do a web search and you'll see it's a rather mainstream question. Also there are so many unfunded public pensions that could meet the definition. Perhaps the difference is transparency. We know these public programs are cur…

Social security is brought up all the time as a Ponzi scheme. Do you have examples that aren’t represented well? To prove the point.

Re: FTX balance sheet, revealed

#242

Okay, but... how? How did they manage to lose so much money by running a popular exchange that should bring in tons of fees? Even if they were gambling with part of the deposits, how can they lose 90% of all assets? You'd have to be actively trying to lose money to be this bad... Also, where does Alameda fit into the picture?

> usiness model ought to be simple, the exchang

They were greedy and counted on a bull market. Basically used money that's not theirs to speculate on shitty coins. Shitty coins went down in value along with their customer's deposit. Think about borrowing money at the bank to buy BTC at 60K. You'd be on the same spot.

Re: FTX balance sheet, revealed

#243

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, they're not. The definition of "Ponzi scheme" is not "something financial I think is a scam" as most people use it. It's a very specific type of financial fraud. "Everything is a Ponzi" is a lazy analysis only made possible by having a lazy definition of what a Ponzi scheme is

A Ponzi scheme is a form of fraud that lures investors and pays profits to earlier investors with funds from more recent investors. Many things from MLM to social security to VC markets can be viewed as a Ponzi scheme.

Your second paragraph doesn’t indicate that’s most things. Those are the obvious ones.

Re: FTX balance sheet, revealed

#244
post #216

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There may not be historical evidence, but first principles tell me that most people prefer cash to trading pelts for groceries every week.

"first principles tell me" is a pretty poor way of knowing what happened in actual history. In this case, it's just you wild guessing about the desires of people thousands of years ago whose lives were nothing like yours. I mean, we don't need any kind of science or history if we could just be like "this story makes sense to me, so it must be true." I guess it's appropriate for our post-fact world.

> I mean, we don't need any kind of science or history if we could just be like "this story makes sense to me, so it must be true."

We don't have any historical record of people explicitly writing that they started using bronze tools to deal with the undesirable aspects of stone tools afaik. We just happen to know from scientific first principles that bronze tools are much more efficient than stone and we also know that societies switched from using stone to bronze. So we assume that they switched due to bronze being better. That's how the study of history has always worked.

> I guess it's appropriate for our post-fact world.

If you want to imply a conspiracy of control through currency I would say that would require more facts to back it up than the simpler alternative. Historically, we know that those in power in the past had no trouble controlling / levying tribute with simple violence.

Re: FTX balance sheet, revealed

#245
post #37
post #17

The "before this week" column seems to be attempting to draw sympathy by saying "but everything was fine before, seriously!" when in reality it just proved that, even in the best of worlds, they had an extremely optimistic view of the entire crypto ecosystem, including its liquidity. I can't believe they seriously held that much of their total value in their own issued token. That's just preposterous. Imagine if JP M…

Remember the Wirecard collapse, where there was a fake bank account in the Phillipines that allegedly had $2.1 billion USD in it? This is the crypto equivalent.

Has there been any attempt at reform of BaFin in the aftermath -- or has bureaucratic inertia absorbed all such impulses?

Re: FTX balance sheet, revealed

#246

Using the word "Liquid" in the context of these accounts is... I don't know? Fraudulent? I understand that in the context of real finances things might be illiquid - it might take time to sell your house, or if you're a particularly big holder of stock in a company you founded you might have liquidity problems divesting over time. But it's really just taking the piss describing a lot of this stuff as "illiquid". FTT…

Matt Levine’s writing on this is right along this line. It delineates between liquidity and solvency problems. Worth a read. https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-11-10/ftx-is...

Re: FTX balance sheet, revealed

#247

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But I thought the whole complaint about SBF was the enormous lengths he was going to in order to increase regulation, and effectively pull up the drawbridge behind him? I think the whole point about campaign financing is well made, but the idea (implied) that this was some massive Dem ruse feels incredibly far-fetched, given the various investors and others involved. If you scratch at the senior leadership of many co…

There is no such idea implied, if anything I mean to say the opposite. We have to stop looking at things through a narrow political lens. Whatever noises SBF was making about regulation - what actually appears to have happened is that he was (at best) incompetent and simply playing to whatever audience was listening. Who knows, maybe he even drank his own koolaid. After all he is so virtuous on other matters, surely…

> drank his own koolaid

Said to me, by a salesman: "A good salesman believes his own bullshit."

Re: FTX balance sheet, revealed

#248
post #17

The "before this week" column seems to be attempting to draw sympathy by saying "but everything was fine before, seriously!" when in reality it just proved that, even in the best of worlds, they had an extremely optimistic view of the entire crypto ecosystem, including its liquidity. I can't believe they seriously held that much of their total value in their own issued token. That's just preposterous. Imagine if JP M…

> Imagine if JP Morgan Chase's entire value was in JP Morgan Chase stock, It's way worse. JPM stock pays dividends in dollars. The yield on FTT is more FTT.

A predetermined percentage of FTX fees is used to buy back FTT which is then "burnt". Open market buy backs are equivalent to dividends. So FTT has a yield measured in dollars.

Re: FTX balance sheet, revealed

#249
post #225

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think your second paragraph is correct but contradicts the first. It’s not that these aren’t obvious so much as some people really wanting to find ways to ignore that so they can get rich without feeling like a scammer.

What I meant by " Ponzi schemes are not obvious, until they’re totally obvious. That’s why they keep happening." Is that they are totally obvious once they fall apart. No contradiction.

Hey.

I offer a 10% return on stock market, every years, in bull as well as bear markets.

Does it sound legit ?

Re: FTX balance sheet, revealed

#250

The whole thing that is bugging me is that they made big political donations to both D and R. They use the money they conjured out of thin air and backed politicians with it. They probably backed the politicians who were most friendly to them. Those politicians might have won and that dirty money might have done a difference. Does that sound moral to you? I think it’s absolutely terrifying. Every candidate that recei…

> Scam Bankman-Fraud

no. Scam Bankrupt-Fraud

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