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The global housing market is heading for a brutal downturn

ft.com

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Re: The global housing market is heading for a brutal downturn

#11

Post by boomskats »

jl6 wrote: post #7
baq wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’ll happen slowly then all at once. Be ready to make a move in the next couple years. Be patient, but pounce quickly.

> It’ll happen slowly then all at once. Be ready to make a move in the next couple years. Be patient, but pounce quickly. Also, a stranger will present an opportunity. Don’t keep your authentic self under wraps. If you can hold your nerve and invest in a friendship, you may realize gains while romance is favored by Mercury.

I too immediately pictured a middle-aged TV celebrity uplit by a crystal ball as I read this prophecy. Thank you for the chuckle.

Re: The global housing market is heading for a brutal downturn

#12

Post by bamboozled »

jl6 wrote: post #7
baq wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’ll happen slowly then all at once. Be ready to make a move in the next couple years. Be patient, but pounce quickly.

> It’ll happen slowly then all at once. Be ready to make a move in the next couple years. Be patient, but pounce quickly. Also, a stranger will present an opportunity. Don’t keep your authentic self under wraps. If you can hold your nerve and invest in a friendship, you may realize gains while romance is favored by Mercury.

Amazing

Re: The global housing market is heading for a brutal downturn

#13

Post by chewz »

lpapez wrote: post #8

Summary of this article is that we can expect from 0 to 5% year-on-year GROWTH in asset prices, compared to 15% we saw last year. Hardly a brutal downturn in my opinion.

Nominal price growth below inflation rate. So prices drop in real terms. If your assets/income grows above inflation rate you win...

Re: The global housing market is heading for a brutal downturn

#14

Post by rkagerer »

Is it me or does the first graph in that article look a bit wonky? The "forecast" shading starts at the beginning of 2022, and today's date on the X axis would have just about already hit the bottom of the big trough (which isn't what I gather they intend to convey).

Re: The global housing market is heading for a brutal downturn

#16

Post by pharmakom »

chewz wrote: post #13
lpapez wrote: post #8

Summary of this article is that we can expect from 0 to 5% year-on-year GROWTH in asset prices, compared to 15% we saw last year. Hardly a brutal downturn in my opinion.

Nominal price growth below inflation rate. So prices drop in real terms. If your assets/income grows above inflation rate you win...

Yeah in a high inflation environment nominal growth means little.

Re: The global housing market is heading for a brutal downturn

#17

Post by googlryas »

baq wrote: post #4
doix wrote: post #3

I've been waiting for a downturn since I missed the one in 08 and it seems to never come. I've resigned to the fact that I'll probably never own property and eventually move into a camper van.

It’ll happen slowly then all at once. Be ready to make a move in the next couple years. Be patient, but pounce quickly.

Doubtful. It's not like the housing market will crash but everything else will remain the same. If it happens, it will drag many other sectors down with it.

Okay - great, houses are 50% cheaper than they were in 2021, but now you got laid off your old job and are making only 60% of your previous pay check after 4 months of unemployment, and inflation and interest rates continues to rise

Re: The global housing market is heading for a brutal downturn

#18

Post by inglor_cz »

If the nominal prices stagnate or even go down, but mortgage interest rates go significantly up, there is no positive change in affordability for the average buyer. The monthly mortgage installment will stay high, only the principal/interest balance within it will change.

The sellers are the ones who will get less money, but the buyers, unless they have huge savings, won't benefit much.

Re: The global housing market is heading for a brutal downturn

#19

Post by d_t_w »

baq wrote: post #4
doix wrote: post #3

I've been waiting for a downturn since I missed the one in 08 and it seems to never come. I've resigned to the fact that I'll probably never own property and eventually move into a camper van.

It’ll happen slowly then all at once. Be ready to make a move in the next couple years. Be patient, but pounce quickly.

“How did you go bankrupt?” Bill asked.

“Two ways,” Mike said. “Gradually and then suddenly.”

Re: The global housing market is heading for a brutal downturn

#20

Post by randomdata »

lpapez wrote: post #8

Summary of this article is that we can expect from 0 to 5% year-on-year GROWTH in asset prices, compared to 15% we saw last year. Hardly a brutal downturn in my opinion.

Also, seems like it will also be short-lived so long as food remains scarce.

Last time we had food troubles (2007) we saw the housing market crash as investment dollars started gambling on futures contracts, but it wasn't long before people started paying big bucks for the farmland around settlements to try and profit on the production side, making it more costly to build new housing, thereby impacting housing supply and soon bringing all housing back up in price. We're already starting to see insane farmland offers showing up.

Maybe this time, especially with increased WFH, we'll start to see more growth away from historical settlements built on prime farmland, but with the high cost of fuel and shipping in general that isn't going to be the easiest transition either.

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