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FTX tapped into customer accounts to fund risky bets, setting up its downfall

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Re: FTX tapped into customer accounts to fund risky bets, setting up its downfall

#721
post #705

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Can you describe how a bank uses money that it has to originate loans? Yes. If I take a loan out of a bank in physical banknotes, then the bank physically loses the amount of banknotes that I physically receive. Physical banknotes are not duplicated. If I take out 100 euros in physical banknotes, then the bank loses the corresponding 100 euros in physical banknotes. The bank does not magically create physical bankn…

> If I take a loan out of a bank in physical banknotes, then the bank physically loses the amount of banknotes that I physically receive. Physical banknotes are not duplicated The withdrawl of money from a bank as notes/coins is a different operation than the origination of a loan. When banks originate a loan, the first thing that happens is that you see the balance appear in your account. You can then choose to with…

> the origination of the loan and the transfer of settlement funds to another bank are separate operations

Correct. The first operation ("writing a number on a computer") can occur regardless of how much money the bank has. But if operation 2 is not possible, then the number that was created in operation 1 is de facto not money. Remember, we're arguing whether the bank needs to have physical banknotes and central bank reserves in order to "create money" when originating a loan. We're not arguing about whether the bank can type in random numbers on a computer - on that point we are already in agreement. The disagreement concerns whether/when those numbers can be considered to be "money".

> All "money" is simply an accounting entry.

Excluding physical banknotes, yes that is true, but you are implying the reverse of that statement to be true and it's not true at all: all accounting entries are not "money". If I open an excel sheet right now and type in "99999999", that is an accounting entry, but it is not money. Likewise, if a troubled bank has completely ran out of capital and is not supported by structures like the FDIC, and it proceeds to type in "9999999" as an accounting entry for the account balance of the chairman's wife, that is not "money". The chairman's wife will not be able to exchange it to goods and services - hence, it is not "money".

> Deposits created by a bank are good for all transactions within that bank. If all people were customers of the same bank (some sort of "central bank" if you will) and all currency were digital, then the bank could indeed create infinity dollars without liquidity risk, because all transactions would occur within their own accounting system with no external settlements.

Yes, central banks have the ability to create practically infinite amounts of real money from thin air. The argument doesn't concern the central bank's ability to create money, it concerns a commercial/retail bank's ability to create money in the process of originating loans.

> > Follow-up question: if you genuinely believe [a bank which has NO MONEY is able to (in a practical sense) create infinite money out of thin air] to be possible, then why isn't anybody doing that? Surely there are many people working at banks who would like to collude with their friends and family to create infinite money. If you believe that to be possible, why has it literally never happened?

> it does happen, fraud in loan origination isn't that rare. Here's a recent example of a banker originating $16m in loans to Paul Manafort in exchange for a shot at working with Trump:

Nope, that is not an example of a bank issuing an infinite amount of money while having literally zero money in reserves. That is an example of a bank which has >16M in reserves, then issuing loans for 16M. Nothing weird about that. Completely unrelated to what I was asking for. Show me a bank which has 0 reserves, then issues loans for billions of dollars, and then exchanges those billions to goods and services. You can't do that, because that has never happened, because it's not possible.

> But let's imagine that a bank did attempt to operate without any settlement balances. What would that look like? It would originate loans by adding $9,999,999,999 to someone's account, and since they're not the only bank, the person has the choice to spend that money wherever they please and some of that money will end up being withdrawn as notes/coins or transferred to another bank. The originator of the loan would then have to borrow settlement balances sufficient to cover withdrawals in notes/coins and cover interbank settlements. What happens? The central bank, which is the lender of last resort, lends money to all those banks and they have to pay interest on it, but in lending the money, the central bank has created reserve balances

No, the central bank would NOT provide a loan in this outrageous, obviously fraudulent instance. Again, you're claiming this to be possible, but it has never happened.

> But fundamentally, we could have a banking system that operates exactly as I described where ALL money creation occurred only through the origination of private credit and subsequent lending of reserve balances by the central bank. It would be a horrible economy with massive inequality and instability, but you could do it, if you so desired. The reason we regulate it is to remove some of that instability (removing the inequality, we're still working on!)

Now I'm confused. So the example you provided was not supposed to reflect reality? It was just a "we could in theory have a banking system like this"? Yes we could in theory, but in practice we don't. In practice normal banks need reserves in order to issue loans.

Re: FTX tapped into customer accounts to fund risky bets, setting up its downfall

#722

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So bail-outs weren't grants, they were loans, and the loans have been repaid netting a massive windfall to the government over over $100B with many more billions to come, a ton of jobs were saved and it's hard to argue that they were at all a bad thing. [1] This is coming from someone who at the time thought the bailouts were a bad idea. [1] https://projects.propublica.org/bailout/

You're describing just a small fraction of the unprecedented Citi bailout. They decided that Citi must not be allowed to fail. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/06/books/review/james-freema... This was a massive intervention in saving a failed bank.

Yes, massive interventions took place - but if that's not a sign that you should be confident the US government will stand by the dollar I don't know what will. The bank was saved, nobody lost deposits. Regulations prevent this from happening in the future.

However I stand by my argument that the US will be repaid in full for its 2008 bail-outs. There's already been $109B in profit, and still $191B in principal left from Fannie and Freddie alone - and they continue to pay massive dividends of about $20B/yr. They US will come out ahead on this and faith in the dollar was restored. Jobs and the economy were saved. And a known good path forward (restoring Glass-Steagall for instance) exists.

I'm not defending Citi. However equating Citi within the economic system with FTX is nonsense. One's a bank which made poor, legal decisions and was saved because of its role in the broader ecosystem. The other is a shady off-shore bucket shop run by a CEO (and his 9 closest bone-bros) who allegedly fraudulently gambled away everyone's money and is on a plane to Argentina.

tl;dr: Even with the Citi bailouts from your article at face value the government will recoup far more than it spent on 2008.

This whole post feels like the dril tweet about the wise man explaining there's actually no difference between good things and bad things.

[1] https://twitter.com/dril/status/473265809079693312

Re: FTX tapped into customer accounts to fund risky bets, setting up its downfall

#723
post #698

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are wrong. Without existing deposits the bank has no money to loan out. They can write numbers on screens, but eventually the money they loaned out will be transferred and the bank that it was transferred to will ask for settlement.

That's exactly the point - money is just numbers on screens. there is no money to loan out . the act of lending creates the money. - Bank starts with $0 capitalisation or deposits - Customer goes to bank and asks for $1 loan - Bank believes customer is creditworthy and says yep - Bank creates two accounts for customer, loan account and deposit account. Loan account is -$1 and deposit account is $1 - customer transfer…

> - Bank starts with $0 capitalisation or deposits - Customer goes to bank and asks for $1 loan - Bank believes customer is creditworthy and says yep

No bank starts out with $0 capitalisation and then makes up money along the way. This has never happened.

> Commercial banks all agree with each other that they accept each other's demand deposit accounts as a form of money.

This is not true either. If a bank is known to have no capital, other banks will refuse to accept transfers from it without immediate settlement.

Re: FTX tapped into customer accounts to fund risky bets, setting up its downfall

#724

From the article: "FTX Chief Executive Sam Bankman-Fried said in investor meetings this week that Alameda owes FTX about $10 billion, people familiar with the matter said. FTX extended loans to Alameda using money that customers had deposited on the exchange for trading purposes, a decision that Mr. Bankman-Fried described as a poor judgment call, one of the people said." In the FTX International terms of service ( h…

Banks don't actually even 'lend out' customer deposits. That's a very common misconception. In modern bank operations, incoming fund transfers (which involve deposits) do provide liquidity that help allow the bank to be able to lend, but banks are actually levering up capital (paid-up share capital, retained earnings, etc.) to lend. The primary limit on how much they are able to lend (by Basel III regulations) is a m…

This is all a roundabout way of saying that, yes, they do lend out the deposits.

Let's imagine a simple bank where my company is the sole depositor - it deposits 100k dollars. Let's assume the bank has no other assets or liabilities - its only asset is the 100k dollars I deposited, and its only liability is the 100,000 dollars it has to pay back to me.

Alice comes in and asks for a 50k dollar loan. The bank accepts the loan, and now has another asset - the 50k dollars that Alice owes them, and a new 50k dollars liability - the deposit with Alice's money. Alice than buys an antique one of a kind Russian doll with her 50k dollars from Bob, and the bank transfers this liability to Bob's bank. Alice fails to pay back her loan, and the bank becomes the owner of the antique one of a kind Russian doll worth 50k dollars.

However, someone finds a new trove of similar dolls, and this ones becomes essentially worthless. So, now the bank's assets are in total only 50k dollars, but its liabilities are still the 100k it owes me. If I try to buy another of Bob's dolls for 80k dollars, the bank must find someone willing to lend it 30k dollars, or it can't honor the transaction, even though I had deposited 100k dollars with them: they lent out my deposit.

Of course, in practice, when Alice asked to transfer her funds to Bob's bank, the bank would have not immediately used my deposit, it would have sought to obtain credit from someone else, using some of the 150k dollars in assets it had at the time as collateral. But, if it couldn't obtain such a loan fast enough, it would have indeed used money from the deposit it had.

Re: FTX tapped into customer accounts to fund risky bets, setting up its downfall

#725

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're describing just a small fraction of the unprecedented Citi bailout. They decided that Citi must not be allowed to fail. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/06/books/review/james-freema... This was a massive intervention in saving a failed bank.

Yes, massive interventions took place - but if that's not a sign that you should be confident the US government will stand by the dollar I don't know what will. The bank was saved, nobody lost deposits. Regulations prevent this from happening in the future. However I stand by my argument that the US will be repaid in full for its 2008 bail-outs. There's already been $109B in profit, and still $191B in principal left…

My argument is not that the financial system as a whole needed no saving, but rather that it was done in a way which encourages massive and perverse systemic risks.

A failed bank like Citi should have been handled like smaller banks at the same situation were handled - taken over by the government, shareholders wiped out, new honest management installed, and criminal referrals made as appropriate. In addition, they should've broken up the bank to smaller units that will not be too big to fail.

The way it was done, most of the management layer remained and had a vested interest in covering up problems and their own complicity. Worse, it made it clear to other institutions that the bigger they become, the less likely they are to be allowed to fail. The incentives are perverse.

Edit: fairness is also important. A large, politically connected, bank benefited from bailouts that smaller, less well-connected banks and regular people did not get.

Re: FTX tapped into customer accounts to fund risky bets, setting up its downfall

#726

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, massive interventions took place - but if that's not a sign that you should be confident the US government will stand by the dollar I don't know what will. The bank was saved, nobody lost deposits. Regulations prevent this from happening in the future. However I stand by my argument that the US will be repaid in full for its 2008 bail-outs. There's already been $109B in profit, and still $191B in principal left…

My argument is not that the financial system as a whole needed no saving, but rather that it was done in a way which encourages massive and perverse systemic risks. A failed bank like Citi should have been handled like smaller banks at the same situation were handled - taken over by the government, shareholders wiped out, new honest management installed, and criminal referrals made as appropriate. In addition, they s…

> My argument is not that the financial system as a whole needed no saving, but rather that it was done in a way which encourages massive and perverse systemic risks.

Absent follow-up regulation, I definitely agree.

> A failed bank like Citi should have been handled like smaller banks at the same situation were handled - taken over by the government, shareholders wiped out, new honest management installed, and criminal referrals made as appropriate. In addition, they should've broken up the bank to smaller units that will not be too big to fail.

Sure, I can get behind that. I do suspect that part of not doing so was pragmatic. Once you get to a certain scale just swapping out management without massive knock-on effects is very hard and the whole point of the intervention was to minimize knock-on effects. Twitter was a few thousand employees and I wouldn't wish that kind of handover on my worst enemies let alone one of the pillar retail banks. Can you imagine just replacing leadership at Apple and assuming it'd go well?

> Edit: fairness is also important. A large, politically connected, bank benefited from bailouts that smaller, less well-connected banks and regular people did not get.

You owe the bank $1M it's your problem, you owe the bank $100M it's their problem and if the bank owes everyone $400B it's the government's problem. Certainly not fair, but pragmatic.

btw, based on your reply I think our positions are probably much closer together than they are far apart. I want Glass-Steagall back.

Re: FTX tapped into customer accounts to fund risky bets, setting up its downfall

#727

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My argument is not that the financial system as a whole needed no saving, but rather that it was done in a way which encourages massive and perverse systemic risks. A failed bank like Citi should have been handled like smaller banks at the same situation were handled - taken over by the government, shareholders wiped out, new honest management installed, and criminal referrals made as appropriate. In addition, they s…

> My argument is not that the financial system as a whole needed no saving, but rather that it was done in a way which encourages massive and perverse systemic risks. Absent follow-up regulation, I definitely agree. > A failed bank like Citi should have been handled like smaller banks at the same situation were handled - taken over by the government, shareholders wiped out, new honest management installed, and crimin…

> You owe the bank $1M it's your problem, you owe the bank $100M it's their problem and if the bank owes everyone $400B it's the government's problem. Certainly not fair, but pragmatic.

Yes, except that the government has the powers (and had them in 2008) to handle the situation.

> btw, based on your reply I think our positions are probably much closer together than they are far apart.

Agreed.

> I want Glass-Steagall back.

Glass-Steagall was explicitly repealed to allow the merger of Citicorp and Travelers Group which created Citigroup.

Robert Rubin, Clinton's treasury secretary, who promoted for the repeal, joined Citi immediately after leaving government and served as chairmen. He made around $140 million until he had to resign because of the financial crisis.

Citi was too big, too connected, and too corrupt. As long as it so large, it will not be effectively regulated, and it will be bailed out again and again.

If there is no effective regulation, and no legal sanctions, management has a strong financial incentives to take actions that are likely to bankrupt the bank.

There's a great paper about it by two winners of the Nobel Memory Prize in Economic Science. It is based on the lessons of the Savings & Loan crisis.

George Akerlof and Paul Romer: Looting: The Economic Underworld of Bankruptcy for Profit

https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/1993/06/1993b_b...

Re: FTX tapped into customer accounts to fund risky bets, setting up its downfall

#728

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's a democratic decision. Everyone agreed that chain is no good. Just like everyone agrees on the current state of the chain.

I agree with that, but that's the reason you can't truly store value forever irreversibly. If you can't reverse transactions, you can just abandon the whole currency and start over, and eventually they'll do that.

Irreversible permanent value storage seems like a dubious aim. Gold seems like a good storage of value now but what if in the future there were an explosion in gold supply because humanity developed the capability to mine the asteroids? Same with crypto because people might just stop mining and move on to other “disrupters”. Ultimately people need to understand that value of something itself is a social decision and not inherent. In my opinion the entire crypto space has been propelled in the wrong direction by treating these tokens as assets which presumably “store value” rather than developing them into fast moving easily transactable currencies, cross chain swapping etc. This would have led to freer taxless societies and communes. Instead the greed of “number go up” took over and now people will reap what they sowed.

Re: FTX tapped into customer accounts to fund risky bets, setting up its downfall

#729
post #322

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From the Sequoia puff-piece: > Something of the sort must happen eventually, as the current system, with its layers upon layers of intermediaries, is antiquated and prone to crashing—the global financial crisis of 2008 was just the latest in a long line of failures that occurred because banks didn’t actually know what was on their balance sheets. Crypto is money that can audit itself, no accountant or bookkeeper need…

Hahahahahahahaha holy fuck. Disclaimer: I don't usually drop comments like this that don't contribute to anything, but... lmao wow.

Its really worse than this.. This guy really LARPed the white-knight / sheriff-of-the-crypto-wild-west for years. He's the last guy anyone would have thought would pull such blatantly shady stuff like this. Before this all came out, more people in the space would have seen him in positive light than they would have seen CZ (the CEO of Binance).

Re: FTX tapped into customer accounts to fund risky bets, setting up its downfall

#730
post #317

I checked my FTX account, only had play money in there. But, despite all the people saying "FTX is fine, withdrawls still work, it's all fine" - nope, everything is disabled, withdrawls show $0.10 avaialble to withdrawl (out of a few hundred I had in actual US cash, plus the BTC and doge transactions are all disabled. This is very serious for many people - there are some who had substantial amounts of money, includin…

This has nothing to do with crypto, it has to do with people sending their money to a con man. If your friend had "his identity tied up in crypto", then why wasn't he holding it himself?

> why wasn't he holding it himself?

Here's how my story played out -- maybe there are a million stories like me I'm not sure.

Bought Monero on Voyager (because my electricity costs are high where I live and I didn't want to mine it). Planned to immediately transfer it out from Voyager to my offline wallet. Saw that Voyager "didn't yet support transferring out" for that cryptocurrency but would soon. Cool, I'll just wait.

A month or so later, Voyager goes under and I'll probably get nothing or pennies on the dollar.

Genuinely curious, what was the right course of action to buy Monero in a low-overhead, safe way?

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