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Ask HN: When a VC loses money, how does that affect the rest of its portfolio?

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Ask HN: When a VC loses money, how does that affect the rest of its portfolio?

#1
Sequoia reportedly lost $213m on the FTX debacle (though has billions in gains from elsewhere to offset these losses). I'm wondering, will Sequoia increase pressure on the remainder of its portfolio to turn a profit? Will they increase scrutiny of each business? More generally, how do VCs react to losses?

I'm working for a VC backed startup, so I'm wondering how these sorts of situations may indirectly affect me.

Re: Ask HN: When a VC loses money, how does that affect the rest of its portfolio?

#4
I'd expect the main impact to be a re-evaluation of risk/reward for the remainder of the portfolio, so any other investments (or opportunities) will be reviewed to see if they have a different risk profile than previously assumed.

The losses (and the profits!) will be picked up by the investors in the fund, not by the fund itself. The impact of a lower return from the fund will impact the ability of the VC fund to attract further investment.

Re: Ask HN: When a VC loses money, how does that affect the rest of its portfolio?

#5

Purely on intuition and no facts at all: my intuition is that it’s already baked into their risk profile. They don’t need to “make up for it.”

The VC fund doesn't "need" to "make up for it" in the risk sense, but the limited partners can and do put pressure on the VC when a portfolio company takes a big hit. Whether that trickles down to the other portfolio companies is a separate question.

Re: Ask HN: When a VC loses money, how does that affect the rest of its portfolio?

#7
The point of being able to start a startup in the US is to protect founders from the kind of bad behavior you’re (indirectly) worried about.

Russia comes to mind as a place where you really don’t want to lose investors $200M.

In the US, there’s no way for investors to pressure founders, beyond the dynamics of a startup. Investor pressure is a known quantity. YC spends a lot of time preparing founders for it, and pg has several essays on it.

Sequoia will be just fine. But even if they weren’t, they can’t react in a way that indirectly affects you.

Put another way, if your founders allowed themselves to be in a situation where a single investor controlled the fate of your company, they were already in a bad bet.

Re: Ask HN: When a VC loses money, how does that affect the rest of its portfolio?

#8
There's going to be a lot more scrutiny of crypto startups, so if yours is in that space you can look forward to a lot of urgent meetings. Otherwise, raises are going to be more difficult in the future so it seems like everybody is trying to get profitable as soon as possible. At the very least, extending the runway as far as possible because nobody knows if VCs will be there next round.

Re: Ask HN: When a VC loses money, how does that affect the rest of its portfolio?

#9
Side question I've been wondering: what was Sequoia, a well-respected VC, doing investing in companies that do nothing but enable people to trade speculative assets with no track record? I'm not so worried about Fundrise or Robinhood because those assets are at least useful or Masterworks because art has a track record. Maybe it's because prospective LPs had the same crypto fomo as retail speculators, but don't GPs also have skin in the game?

Re: Ask HN: When a VC loses money, how does that affect the rest of its portfolio?

#10
The thing you're thinking about may be whether they can pull the funding they've already sent to the businesses in their portfolio. I doubt they can do that, but they can apply pressure to get those remaining companies to grow more aggressively or IPO etc.
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