> That’s not what 10x means to me. It means 10x the median productivity, i.e. 10x a competent programmer.
There are quite a few engineers/devs out there that produces negative net value, when taking into account management overhead and other resources consumed (even when ignoring their salary). Some of these are just in the wrong place, they don't have the talent, skills or motivation to work well with their team, and but might be "competent" in another team.
Even at the median level, output may often lack creativity and inspiration, and add relative little value. The functions they do may be easy to oursource, replace by standardized software or could be built by better developers much more quickly and with higher quality.
I think in most companies who do software development, at least half of net value is generated by the top 5-10% or so developers. (Making them 10x engineers compared to the median). These are the ones that drive new ideas and approaches successfully (instead of chasing cargo cults for no benefit), they are the one that write the code that other developers imitate and build on top of, and they are the ones that contribute to team engagement and cooperation. (Or at least 2/3 above.)
As for the number being 10x the average developer, that's much lower, since the top 10% pulls the average up quite far from the median. I would guess 0.1%-1% is 10x the average, depending on company.
These would be the ones that are able to identify and solve problems others are not even aware exist (or have given up on), the ones that understand the business they're in better than most product managers, and actively drive development of killer apps/features that others didn't even consider. Often they're entrepeneurs or leaders as much as developers.