181–190 of 191 posts
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We have? I’ve certainly been bombarded with graphs showing trends, but six month predictions? Where are you seeing these? Can you point me to some?
Sure. https://www.google.com/search?q=uk+covid+predictions&tbm=isc... There are plenty that stretch out for a year.
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> The costs associated with widespread everyday masking are severe. You even quoted the ones that I'd mentioned earlier. Yes, and stated that they are, for the most part, not actually costs. Masks don't cause accessibility problems, they don't cause child development issues, they don't cause social strife when consistently warn and enforced, and they don't cause abusive policing (police don't enforce mask mandates an…
What about people who have difficulty breathing, and have to have their breathing hindered for hours by the mask? I was in the hospital for 2 days when my wife gave birth, and I was supposed to wear the mask 24/7. Luckily they didn't enforce it strictly so I was able to sleep without the mask.
That is why vaccinating and wearing masks is so important: you're not just protecting yourself, but also those who legitimately cannot get vaccines (e.g. due to allergies), where the vaccines are ineffective (people with autoimmune disorders, on immunosuppressants or with a generally non-respondent immune system), or who cannot wear masks at all or for prolonged amounts of time (e.g. people with claustrophobia or weakened lungs).
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Sure. https://www.google.com/search?q=uk+covid+predictions&tbm=isc... There are plenty that stretch out for a year.
A naive google search is ... not a helpful reference.
Also, you "asked for some". There they are - there's a lot of them.
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Then it's a scenario model, which asks what-if questions usually for planning purposes (e.g., what's the most hospital beds we might need?). Scenario models can have longer time horizons than forecasts, but 6 months is still quite long.
That is a quite cool way of separating those models. Can you point me in a direction where I could learn more? RE: Forecast vs Scenario?
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I guess as it transformed from epidemic to pandemic to endemic, it became increasingly predictable. The duration and peaks of the last waves could even be predicted by months indeed, as measures and behaviors remained practically unchanged. Not one of these predictions encompassed six months, though.
>Not one of these predictions encompassed six months, though. I beg to differ. Here's a sample of what we got, on a daily basis, in the UK: https://www.google.com/search?q=uk+covid+predictions&tbm=isc... Plenty of those are dated from the early months of 2020.
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A naive google search is ... not a helpful reference.
Why not? It's the most efficient way I could think of, to display the sheer quantity, timeline, and content of the "Covid predictions" that we were shown in the UK. They are easily clickable, to show the original context (typically a news story or press release). You'll also note that practically all of them extend for at least 6 months. Also, you "asked for some". There they are - there's a lot of them.
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> What looks like fearmongering now We had over 1 million deaths in the US. You travel back to 2016 and tell people we'll have a pandemic in the US, 1 million people will die, and then large groups of people will attempt to shrug that off as "nothing to get concerned about", people would find that incomprehensible. If I were to post a comment on HN in 2016 suggesting that people would shrug off 1 million deaths due t…
300k Americans die each year from obesity. Yet nobody seems to view this as an urgent issue needing addressing.
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Neither the GP nor myself said that SARS-COV-2 escaped from the Wuhan lab, let alone that it was the result of GoF research. I called it a theory , as in, neither conclusively proven nor conclusively disproven. It’s a theory about which there has been significant controversy. I didn’t even say there was significant evidence for it. Acknowledging the existence of a controversy is not the same thing as promoting a cons…
Thank you for saying this. We know xenophobic racist right wingers are saying that COVID came from China. But WHO-China investigation definitely proved that COVID came outside of China. Even western virologists have been supporting Chinese scientists. [1] [1] https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6...
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Why not? It's the most efficient way I could think of, to display the sheer quantity, timeline, and content of the "Covid predictions" that we were shown in the UK. They are easily clickable, to show the original context (typically a news story or press release). You'll also note that practically all of them extend for at least 6 months. Also, you "asked for some". There they are - there's a lot of them.
Well to be frank I clicked a handful of them and got tired of trying to decipher graphs that didn’t end up supporting this claim.
It is not clear when the image in first result was published, but given that it includes error bars for dates from March 2020 onwards, I would assume this is the result of modelling performed earlier than March 2020. It covers until October 2020.
Result number two is a direct link to this paper:
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/196234/covid-19-imperial-res...
It was published in March 2020, and predicts data till March 2021
Result number three is a direct link to this news story (with an ironic headline, given result number 4 below):
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54831334
It was published in November 2020, and predicts data until July 2021
Result number four is a direct link to this news story:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53392148
It was published in July 2020, and predicts data until July 2021
This is the garbage that was fed to the UK populace on a daily basis - it was like the "modellers" had taken charge.
Will you accept that graphs predicting more than 6 months of results were in common circulation?
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Well to be frank I clicked a handful of them and got tired of trying to decipher graphs that didn’t end up supporting this claim.
Reminding ourselves that you asked to be "pointed to some (graphs predicting more than 6 months)": It is not clear when the image in first result was published, but given that it includes error bars for dates from March 2020 onwards, I would assume this is the result of modelling performed earlier than March 2020. It covers until October 2020. Result number two is a direct link to this paper: https://www.imperial.ac.…
I accept that they exist. I don't accept that we were "bombarded" with them. This is, of course, a US perspective, so perhaps your mileage may vary.