Earlier quoted context omitted.
I've been wearing masks from early on and only recently stopped wearing them regularly. Now I only wear them when in a crowded situation. I feel how masks were handled was completely botched in many ways. There is the politicization and communication errors. However, I also remain somewhat shocked how we never made any effort to address the biggest, obvious issues with masks to make them more effective. I saw so many…
>How about a mask with a rubber seal that goes around it I wore one of these: https://envomask.com/ They're relatively heavy compared to paper & fabric masks (not to mention expensive), but the gel seal made it quite comfortable and it was the only thing I found that I could wear all day without ever fogging up my glasses.
Leaked documents: Ugandan government expects explosion in Ebola cases
161–170 of 191 posts
Re: Leaked documents: Ugandan government expects explosion in Ebola cases
#162Earlier quoted context omitted.
You are claiming 6% is mainstream?
I will say that the evidence is the same for either. What percentage you think makes an idea mainstream I will leave up to you...
mainstream : the ideas, attitudes, or activities that are regarded as normal or conventional; the dominant trend in opinion, fashion, or the arts.
So, no, 6% is not mainstream. Moon landing conspiracies are by no means a dominant trend anywhere aside from joke books and parody.
Re: Leaked documents: Ugandan government expects explosion in Ebola cases
#163Earlier quoted context omitted.
That sounds... wrong? What if the 6+ month forecast assuming no interventions is useful to compel an intervention, and the 2-3 week one is not?
Then it's a scenario model, which asks what-if questions usually for planning purposes (e.g., what's the most hospital beds we might need?). Scenario models can have longer time horizons than forecasts, but 6 months is still quite long.
Re: Leaked documents: Ugandan government expects explosion in Ebola cases
#164Earlier quoted context omitted.
Why is parent getting downvoted? The lab leak theory is pretty mainstream these days. And gain of function research is 1: real 2: fucking insane and 3: a plausible way we would have a true captain trips style pandemic.
> The lab leak theory is pretty mainstream these days. Mainstream, and conceivably true, but lacking in evidence. Personally I find it rather implausible due to a lack of motivation for why the lab in question would be doing secret work on coronaviruses. > fucking insane I don't think this is a helpful way to have this debate. I don't know enough to have a strong opinion on this, but a majority of virologists seem to…
what was secret about it? the lab in Wuhan was literally doing research in 2015 on how bat coronaviruses could adapt to spread in humans vs ACE2 receptors and developed their own strain: https://www.nature.com/articles/nm.3985
from the linked study: "Using the SARS-CoV reverse genetics system, we generated and characterized a chimeric virus expressing the spike of bat coronavirus SHC014 in a mouse-adapted SARS-CoV backbone. The results indicate that group 2b viruses encoding the SHC014 spike in a wild-type backbone can efficiently use multiple orthologs of the SARS receptor human angiotensin converting enzyme II (ACE2), replicate efficiently in primary human airway cells and achieve in vitro titers equivalent to epidemic strains of SARS-CoV. Additionally, in vivo experiments demonstrate replication of the chimeric virus in mouse lung with notable pathogenesis.... On the basis of these findings, we synthetically re-derived an infectious full-length SHC014 recombinant virus and demonstrate robust viral replication both in vitro and in vivo. Our work suggests a potential risk of SARS-CoV re-emergence from viruses currently circulating in bat populations."
Re: Leaked documents: Ugandan government expects explosion in Ebola cases
#165Earlier quoted context omitted.
So you're in charge of making decisions. Hypothetically. Your epidemiologists believe that if no action is taken, 10 people will die in the next two weeks, 100 people will die in the next 4 weeks, and 1,000,000 will die in the next 6 months. Which forecasts would you prefer they keep to themselves?
Starting an implication with “if no action is taken after 100,000 deaths” is the same as “if false” — you can put anything in the “then” and have the statement be logically sound - that doesn’t mean it’s in any way useful. End of the day that kind of talk just damages trust in the scientific process, which has to be at an all time low with regard to epidemiology, as a result of the stream of certified lies that have…
1) Not when YOU are the person who determines if action should be taken!
2) You seem to be implying that action can be taken at 100,000 which will be effective at preventing the spread to 1,000,000 which may be true or may be false, but it's going to be far easier to stop it at 10 regardless.
Re: Leaked documents: Ugandan government expects explosion in Ebola cases
#166Earlier quoted context omitted.
So you're in charge of making decisions. Hypothetically. Your epidemiologists believe that if no action is taken, 10 people will die in the next two weeks, 100 people will die in the next 4 weeks, and 1,000,000 will die in the next 6 months. Which forecasts would you prefer they keep to themselves?
Starting an implication with “if no action is taken after 100,000 deaths” is the same as “if false” — you can put anything in the “then” and have the statement be logically sound - that doesn’t mean it’s in any way useful. End of the day that kind of talk just damages trust in the scientific process, which has to be at an all time low with regard to epidemiology, as a result of the stream of certified lies that have…
Is useful as the higher bound and for judging the results of actions.
But still... I think you're too sure about people in charge following reasonable behaviours. We don't even have to go as far as the great famine. There's lots of things going wrong now where people responsible explicitly do not address the issue.
Re: Leaked documents: Ugandan government expects explosion in Ebola cases
#167Earlier quoted context omitted.
> The costs associated with widespread everyday masking are severe. You even quoted the ones that I'd mentioned earlier. Yes, and stated that they are, for the most part, not actually costs. Masks don't cause accessibility problems, they don't cause child development issues, they don't cause social strife when consistently warn and enforced, and they don't cause abusive policing (police don't enforce mask mandates an…
Josh, I recommend that you do even just some basic research into this topic. It's quite complex, and I can't do it justice here. Masking certainly does cause accessibility problems for many people. For example, people with mobility and other issues involving their fingers, hands, arms, shoulders, neck, and ears can find it quite difficult, or even impossible, to put on, to wear, or to remove a mask. Masking can also…
I have.
> For example, people with mobility and other issues involving their fingers, hands, arms, shoulders, neck, and ears can find it quite difficult, or even impossible, to put on, to wear, or to remove a mask.
This is minimal and solvable. If someone needs assistance putting on a mask, they need assistance with other daily activities and so can get that assistance as well.
> Masking can cause problems for those with hearing-related issues, as it can make it difficult to hear the muffled voices of others, as well as making lip-reading impossible.
This is also solvable, with for example clear masks that are used in speech therapy contexts.
> Masking can also aggravate respiratory and cardiovascular-related medical issues.
This is not true, there's no support for this in the literature. While full-face respirators can reduce airflow, facemasks like those commonly worn and recommended don't decrease airflow or O2 intake significantly enough to matter. As a rule of thumb, if you cannot breath through a mask either the issue is psychosomatic or you should be wearing a plastic face mask that provides you supplementary oxygen, because you are not sufficiently able to breathe on your own.
> In jurisdictions where accessibility is considered important, the forced masking bylaws or legislation typically had accessibility-related exemptions, because masking does cause severe accessibility problems for many people.
Please cite them.
> Among the most egregious were when exempt individuals were denied service, reasonable accommodation, and in some cases employment.
Please cite them. What is a reasonable exemption from mask wearing if a building requires all present to wear masks?
> A less-visible aspect to this very real threat of harassment was how some people just stopped participating in society as much as possible, even at the cost of financial, psychological, and social harm to themselves.
Lots of people do this for many reasons, for example the large swaths of people who (rightly or wrongly) still feel unsafe going out and about because of the dangers of Covid and the fact that most areas in society don't mask. Personally, I feel those people, even most with immunicompromisations, are overstating the risks associated with involvement in society. By the same token, I think the people you describe are overstating the risks of masking. I cannot conclusively say whether one faces a greater real issue than the other. What I can say is that masks to provide conclusive benefits, so the imagined risks of people who fear them are less of an issue to me than the imagined risks of people who overestimate the dangers of covid and other airborne infectious diseases.
> Perhaps you were spared the worst of this based on where you happen to live, and luckily didn't have to experience the costs of masking yourself.
Given where I live and my social circles, I and those around me masked far more aggressively and for far longer than the majority of the united states. I'll reiterate that there have been few to know real negative impacts from these policies.
Re: Leaked documents: Ugandan government expects explosion in Ebola cases
#168This title made me wonder, what ever happened to monkey pox. Turns out that it has more or less died away.
Except it didn't, it fell off the news cycle before the peak in August and people just stopped talking about it. New cases are still happening: https://www.cdc.gov/poxvirus/monkeypox/response/2022/index.h...
Re: Leaked documents: Ugandan government expects explosion in Ebola cases
#169Earlier quoted context omitted.
> The lab leak theory is pretty mainstream these days. Mainstream, and conceivably true, but lacking in evidence. Personally I find it rather implausible due to a lack of motivation for why the lab in question would be doing secret work on coronaviruses. > fucking insane I don't think this is a helpful way to have this debate. I don't know enough to have a strong opinion on this, but a majority of virologists seem to…
> why the lab in question would be doing secret work on coronaviruses what was secret about it? the lab in Wuhan was literally doing research in 2015 on how bat coronaviruses could adapt to spread in humans vs ACE2 receptors and developed their own strain: https://www.nature.com/articles/nm.3985 from the linked study: "Using the SARS-CoV reverse genetics system, we generated and characterized a chimeric virus express…
I suppose they could have just received some samples and then that triggered an immediate outbreak before anyone heard of it, but having an instant spillover event from a handful bat samples with workers using biosecurity measures doesn't seem to me especially likely compared to the many more interactions humans have with animals outside lab settings. (For example, the tens of thousands of live animals kept caged in extreme proximity with each other and unprotected humans in the huge Wuhan wet market).