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Mild autumn weather has sent European gas prices plummeting

economist.com

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Re: Mild autumn weather has sent European gas prices plummeting

#131

Post by consp »

woah wrote: post #123
m000 wrote: post #62

Gas prices plummeting, energy bills soaring. The market will regulate itself. /s

These oil and gas futures are all publicly traded, as are most of the corporations working in the field. If it’s really so easy to make money because the market is rigged, guess what? You can get in on the action too.

It takes money to make more money (especially in any appreciable amount) and that is not possible for everyone so the "You can get in on it too" argumentation is quite insulting to a lot of people as far as I am concerned.

Re: Mild autumn weather has sent European gas prices plummeting

#132

Post by ericmay »

photochemsyn wrote: post #115
ericmay wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This is pretty basic supply and demand stuff. It's hard not to conclude that a major US goal was cutting Europe off from Russian gas, and replacing that with American LNG. You can find all sorts of quotes to this effect from the US government before 2022: It’s actually very easy to conclude that this is not the case because selling a few billion dollars worth of oil simply isn’t worth global destabilization. To the…

It's more like an extra $100 billion in revenue. Not counting the military procurement bill, which is what, approaching $20 billion? This war is a real cash cow for certain sectors of the US government (fossil fuels and defense contractors), although the resulting inflation isn't doing anyone else any favors.

Yea so not a lot of money and not worth the global instability, hence it’s a very poor theory.

A much better one would be something like the US knowing that the Russian military was in very rough shape and that an invasion would lead to the permanent decline of Russia and shore up allies in Europe and elsewhere so they goaded Putin into action by not doing anything after previous actions in places like Crimea.

But that’s also prescribing too much agency to the US government.

Re: Mild autumn weather has sent European gas prices plummeting

#133

Post by netrus »

consp wrote: post #131
woah wrote: post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

These oil and gas futures are all publicly traded, as are most of the corporations working in the field. If it’s really so easy to make money because the market is rigged, guess what? You can get in on the action too.

It takes money to make more money (especially in any appreciable amount) and that is not possible for everyone so the "You can get in on it too" argumentation is quite insulting to a lot of people as far as I am concerned.

The argument is that it is obviously never easy to make money in a transparent market - because SOMEONE with money would do it until the prices adapt. The difference between todays spot market and futures tells you something about the challenge to provide additional storage at scale.

Re: Mild autumn weather has sent European gas prices plummeting

#134

Post by Workaccount2 »

empedocles wrote: post #77
7952 wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And the UK has relatively more secure sources in Norway and the North Sea.

Not sure I would bet on the pipeline from Norway remaining secure. They have increased their level of military alert for a reason.

Russia would be insane (more than they already are) to attack that. It has nothing to do with Ukraine and would likely be considered an attack on a NATO ally.

No benefit and lots to lose.

Re: Mild autumn weather has sent European gas prices plummeting

#135

Post by bombcar »

krobbn wrote: post #130

"Gas costs €35 per mwh for delivery today, but €110 for a guaranteed shipment in December and €142 for one in February, once heaters turn on." The market is in contago, if you can find a way to store the gas you can make money buying today and delivering in Dec/Jan/Feb. You could even take delivery in December if you can find storage and sell in Feb and lock in a spread of $32 today. This is the reason you're seeing…

Isn't storage just exactly the problem? From what I understand every single possible storage tank in Europe is filled to the brim, and most if not all of the LNG ships are already there or en-route.

Re: Mild autumn weather has sent European gas prices plummeting

#136

Post by Workaccount2 »

ericmay wrote: post #106
photochemsyn wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The means is an interesting question. Having done a little scuba diving, the depth of the pipelines (70-90 meters) put it out of range of any diver without a sophisticated mix of gases (Trimix diving). A remotely operated vehicle would also work. The pipelines were made of thick steel wrapped with concrete, so some kind of high-tech explosive was necessary, perhaps shaped charges (used in the oil industry for blowing…

Not really. If Russia wanted to continue to sell gas to Europe it could end the war against Ukraine (or have never started it in the first place). Gas sales aren’t a high priority there. Putin doesn’t care one bit about those, and likely had the pipeline blown up as a “no way back” for those who might have wanted to negotiate behind his back. The US blowing up NS2 for a few billion dollars worth of gas sales is beyon…

Ukraine recently discovered it had large reserves of natural gas. Enough that it could potentially threaten Russia as Europe's main supplier. Many people suspect this was the primary reason Russia invaded.

Re: Mild autumn weather has sent European gas prices plummeting

#137

Post by zajio1am »

sph wrote: post #113
Am4TIfIsER0ppos wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The market is unable to function normally because of government interference. I expect there is a supplier and a contract somewhere that will give you the spot price. Furthermore the temperature has dropped so I expect demand has increased again so are you really sure you want that contract?

I am ambivalent on the idea of a completely free market. Because while I believe it would self-regulate, in a vacuum (or anarchic system), a free market paired with a government means interference, nepotism, laws that favour monopolies and kills competition. So when people like Liz Truss enter 10 Downing Street and claim they want to enact "free market policies", the result is just utter economic upheaval and chaos t…

Economic upheaval in UK is not because 'free market policies', but because of Liz Truss's irresponsible fiscal policy during inflation times, which shows her (and her chancellor's) basic macroeconomic incompetence.

Re: Mild autumn weather has sent European gas prices plummeting

#138

Post by algoatecorn »

Workaccount2 wrote: post #129
woah wrote: post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

These oil and gas futures are all publicly traded, as are most of the corporations working in the field. If it’s really so easy to make money because the market is rigged, guess what? You can get in on the action too.

Everybody complains that energy companies manipulate prices to enrich themselves. For some reason though none of them are happy that they can use their inside knowledge to get rich...

Yep, I have friends who think the price at the pump is due to companies like Exxon and their "ability to price gouge". Like what? Yea dude Exxon is so powerful they let their stock freefall for 6 straight years post-2014

Re: Mild autumn weather has sent European gas prices plummeting

#139

Post by Moissanite »

bearmode wrote: post #20
10u152 wrote: post #2

The pictorial had me for a minute. Deeper red means closer to full which is a positive thing.

Could also be a bad thing; if a country's storage capacity is woeful (like the UK), it indicates we could be storing more.

20/20 hindsight. In a less miserable timeline, the absence of hostilities with Russia makes gas storage a non-issue, and any government putting money into gas tanks rather than renewable energy would have been (rightly) lambasted. I'm willing to tear chunks out of our inept leaders over many things, but this isn't one of them.

Re: Mild autumn weather has sent European gas prices plummeting

#140

Post by reitanqild »

Workaccount2 wrote: post #134
empedocles wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not sure I would bet on the pipeline from Norway remaining secure. They have increased their level of military alert for a reason.

Russia would be insane (more than they already are) to attack that. It has nothing to do with Ukraine and would likely be considered an attack on a NATO ally. No benefit and lots to lose.

(Disclaimer up front: I don't know who cut NS1 and NS2, my bet is on russia, but I can see more than one alternative.)

Which would explain the attacks on their own gas pipeline NS1 and NS2:

- they are dumb and reckless enough to do that (they weren't used anyway, +plausible deniability)

- it signals to NATO the idea that russia can destroy critical infrastructure without actually getting caught for an attack on critical infrastructure

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