Mild autumn weather has sent European gas prices plummeting • Hacker News Board

Re: Mild autumn weather has sent European gas prices plummeting

#121

Post by alwayslikethis » Mon, Nov 07, 2022, 2:29 PM UTC

bheadmaster wrote: post #85

birracerveza wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's actually the opposite, you have a pattern-seeking brain that likes coincidences. It's why we notice patterns, because some are not coincidences but outright consequences, however indirect they may be! But there's a lot of coincidences in the world, some being so unlikely and so unfortunate, our mind can refuse to accept that, well.. it can be just a coincidence. The longest-reigning UK monarch dies at the start…

From a deeply cynical perspective, everything in the world is a coincidence, it's just that some coincidences happen so often that betting on them becomes useful, so we give them a name: "cause-effect relationship".

This is basically a two sentence restatement of David Hume's view on causality.

Re: Mild autumn weather has sent European gas prices plummeting

#122

Post by alwayslikethis » Mon, Nov 07, 2022, 2:32 PM UTC

rasz wrote: post #33

Joke being Russian flagrant disregard for climate change contributed to warmer winter.

On another note, Russia is also among the least negatively affected countries by climate change. With the weather warming up, they may gain new arable land and even a few ports in the Arctic and Pacific.

Re: Mild autumn weather has sent European gas prices plummeting

#123

Post by woah » Mon, Nov 07, 2022, 2:32 PM UTC

m000 wrote: post #62

Gas prices plummeting, energy bills soaring. The market will regulate itself. /s

These oil and gas futures are all publicly traded, as are most of the corporations working in the field. If it’s really so easy to make money because the market is rigged, guess what? You can get in on the action too.

Re: Mild autumn weather has sent European gas prices plummeting

#124

Post by kube-system » Mon, Nov 07, 2022, 2:41 PM UTC

m000 wrote: post #62

Gas prices plummeting, energy bills soaring. The market will regulate itself. /s

This is because there are multiple markets for gas, depending on when and where you want the gas.

The price for gas being delivered today is not the same as the price for gas in January. Because in the meantime, someone needs to store it.

Re: Mild autumn weather has sent European gas prices plummeting

#125

Post by dariusj18 » Mon, Nov 07, 2022, 2:46 PM UTC

hdjjhhvvhga wrote: post #83

jve wrote: post #79

On some Gas thread, someone posted a link where you could see full %, ingress and egress graphs of gas storages over time across europe. I can't find it. Could someone post it please? Thanks in advance.

Do you mean this one: https://agsi.gie.eu/ ?

Ukraine seems to be the odd one out, this is not a surprise of course, but it could at least be good, they have the opportunity to buy the gas at the bargain rates.

Re: Mild autumn weather has sent European gas prices plummeting

#126

Post by AbrahamParangi » Mon, Nov 07, 2022, 2:48 PM UTC

m000 wrote: post #110

kuratkull wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People seem to expect the free market to adapt immediately, for consumers immediate benefit. The market will regulate itself, but it may not happen in timeframes that people are comfortable with.

No, consumers just expect it to show consistent reaction times. A rumour is typically enough to warrant an overnight price hike in consumer prices. While for experiencing reductions, consumers have to wait for a few months for the market to "adapt". And in the end, it usually is the consumers that adapt to the increased prices, so companies don't see any good reason to reduce them.

That's because if a company makes too much profit, it's being potentially inefficient - but if it makes too little profit, it goes out of business.

Re: Mild autumn weather has sent European gas prices plummeting

#127

Post by micromacrofoot » Mon, Nov 07, 2022, 2:52 PM UTC

randomuser26491 wrote: post #98

klodolph wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Heartless" is uncalled for. The warmer weather may mean that fewer people are suffering today, but it is also a symptom of a trend that leads towards more suffering in the future. Is it heartless to think of those people in the future?

It is the poorest who will suffer the most from the unmitigated effects of climate change. It is also the poorest who cannot afford to pay for adequate heating at current prices. If we take the route of "Save the future poor by letting the living poor suffer" we will always be able to justify policies which unfairly impact the poorest in society.

and regardless of when the poor suffer, the sad truth is always that they didn't have to

Re: Mild autumn weather has sent European gas prices plummeting

#128

Post by joxel » Mon, Nov 07, 2022, 2:53 PM UTC

dotancohen wrote: post #111

klodolph wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Heartless" is uncalled for. The warmer weather may mean that fewer people are suffering today, but it is also a symptom of a trend that leads towards more suffering in the future. Is it heartless to think of those people in the future?

> Is it heartless to think of those people in the future? Are those people in the future voting today? That's what drives policy.

No, but people who aren't selfish assholes should be voting with an eye toward the future.

Re: Mild autumn weather has sent European gas prices plummeting

#129

Post by Workaccount2 » Mon, Nov 07, 2022, 2:55 PM UTC

woah wrote: post #123

m000 wrote: post #62

Gas prices plummeting, energy bills soaring. The market will regulate itself. /s

These oil and gas futures are all publicly traded, as are most of the corporations working in the field. If it’s really so easy to make money because the market is rigged, guess what? You can get in on the action too.

Everybody complains that energy companies manipulate prices to enrich themselves. For some reason though none of them are happy that they can use their inside knowledge to get rich...

Re: Mild autumn weather has sent European gas prices plummeting

#130

Post by krobbn » Mon, Nov 07, 2022, 2:56 PM UTC

"Gas costs €35 per mwh for delivery today, but €110 for a guaranteed shipment in December and €142 for one in February, once heaters turn on."

The market is in contago, if you can find a way to store the gas you can make money buying today and delivering in Dec/Jan/Feb.

You could even take delivery in December if you can find storage and sell in Feb and lock in a spread of $32 today. This is the reason you're seeing so many LNG ships outside the coast of western Europe.