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Wells Fargo mortgage staff brace for layoffs as U.S. loan volumes collapse

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Re: Wells Fargo mortgage staff brace for layoffs as U.S. loan volumes collapse

#21

Post by hmmmmmm111 »

jmyeet wrote: post #16

It's unsurprising mortgage volume is down given economic uncertainty and the spiking interest rates. As such, layoffs at mortgage originators seem inevitable. But here's the lesson I want people to take from this: both Demorats and Republicans are cut from the same neoliberal cloth in that they both serve corporate interests. What do I mean by this? Neither pushes back on the idea that interest rates are the only way…

What is the common sense reason that windfall taxes would reduce the price of gas and food?

Re: Wells Fargo mortgage staff brace for layoffs as U.S. loan volumes collapse

#22

Post by to11mtm »

Exmoor wrote: post #11
bpodgursky wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Does this assume 20% down? The higher the cash component on average, the less it matters. If it's a cash market (bay/Seattle/NYC), might be more resilient.

Cash buyers are not complete idiots. If the mortgage-based buyers they were competing with a year ago have 35% less buying power than why would they spend money they don't need to? The market where I live (Seattle suburbs) has completely reversed in the last year. A year ago I was surprised if a house lasted more than a weekend, now I'm literally shocked when I see a house sell. I can think of two houses in my area I…

Cash buyers are -not- complete idiots, but there was (and still is) some portion of people who think that prices will at best plateau, and thus it's better to 'get in' early still.

> A year ago I was surprised if a house lasted more than a weekend, now I'm literally shocked when I see a house sell.

Around here it has cooled down but the market is still... volatile. Ironically I may or may not be 'up' in value compared to the start of this year. But my state has various taxes and insurance costs that have impacts on relative home value.

Re: Wells Fargo mortgage staff brace for layoffs as U.S. loan volumes collapse

#23

Post by downrightmike »

pcurve wrote: post #18

News by news, Jerome Powell is getting what he's been wanting.

At least he didn't, or hasn't jacked up the rates to double digits like in the 80's yet. Maybe they acted later than they should have, time will tell.

Re: Wells Fargo mortgage staff brace for layoffs as U.S. loan volumes collapse

#24

Post by jjcon »

vinyl7 wrote: post #20
larrymyers wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's been a lot of news coverage lately about how low inventory is going to continue to keep housing prices high, despite mortgages going up. Basically people with 2%-3% mortgages are going to sit tight, because they can no longer afford a comparable house were they to move. Low inventory means prices won't drop as much as people hope with rising interest rates. The only wild card here is what will happen with cas…

Inventory is already well on its way back to 2020 levels, and is exceeding 2019 levels in some areas. The "shortage" was caused by demand from extremely low interest rates, now that demand has died...the shortage is over. Not to mention, as we head into this recession and life/layoffs continue, people will be forced to sell if they can no longer cover their mortgage. https://twitter.com/RickPalaciosJr/status/15886888…

3 cherry picked cities in the USA? Here is a better source that is national (USA):

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ACTLISCOUUS

Listings are still very low compared to pre-pandemic levels not to mention by many metrics there was already a shortage before the pandemic stemming all the way back to the great recession. Some interesting reading:

https://usafacts.org/articles/population-growth-has-outpaced...

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2022/10/26/housing-mark...

https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/blogs/sta...

https://www.fanniemae.com/research-and-insights/perspectives...

Re: Wells Fargo mortgage staff brace for layoffs as U.S. loan volumes collapse

#26

Post by vinyl7 »

jjcon wrote: post #24
vinyl7 wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Inventory is already well on its way back to 2020 levels, and is exceeding 2019 levels in some areas. The "shortage" was caused by demand from extremely low interest rates, now that demand has died...the shortage is over. Not to mention, as we head into this recession and life/layoffs continue, people will be forced to sell if they can no longer cover their mortgage. https://twitter.com/RickPalaciosJr/status/15886888…

3 cherry picked cities in the USA? Here is a better source that is national (USA): https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ACTLISCOUUS Listings are still very low compared to pre-pandemic levels not to mention by many metrics there was already a shortage before the pandemic stemming all the way back to the great recession. Some interesting reading: https://usafacts.org/articles/population-growth-has-outpaced... https://ww…

We're really only a month into the new rates. People who locked in at the sub 6% interest rates were still closing in October. Either we see a dramatic drop in prices or inventory will surge.

Housing affordability has been demolished with these higher interest rates, so sales will drop off a cliff as we're already seeing with mortgage companies doing mass layoffs.

Re: Wells Fargo mortgage staff brace for layoffs as U.S. loan volumes collapse

#27

Post by xt00 »

Exmoor wrote: post #11
bpodgursky wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Does this assume 20% down? The higher the cash component on average, the less it matters. If it's a cash market (bay/Seattle/NYC), might be more resilient.

Cash buyers are not complete idiots. If the mortgage-based buyers they were competing with a year ago have 35% less buying power than why would they spend money they don't need to? The market where I live (Seattle suburbs) has completely reversed in the last year. A year ago I was surprised if a house lasted more than a weekend, now I'm literally shocked when I see a house sell. I can think of two houses in my area I…

Yea likely many cash buyers will sit in a wait and see mode except for amazing properties (like waterfront that is being sold cheaper than expected etc) -- but the ability of the fed to drive housing prices down will probably be seen as a feature rather than a bug to many people -- so I would expect the fed will keep the high interest rates for 2-3 years. There were continual increases from 1977 to 1981 until finally things were reversed.. so interest rates being ~8% + for 3 years would seem cheap compared to the high interest rates of 1981 (hitting 18%). So seems likely housing prices will keep sliding for a while until some sort of equilibrium is found.

Re: Wells Fargo mortgage staff brace for layoffs as U.S. loan volumes collapse

#28

Post by eo3x0 »

Housing prices are dropping, as would be expected with the interest rate hikes.

House prices are set at the margins, just like any asset. Even if the folks with 3% mortgage rates sit tight and don’t sell, there will still be downward pressure on prices because prices are not determined by non-transactions. There are plenty of listings for those who need to exit the market and liquidate, driving inventory up.

Just a quick glance at Zillow and Redfin will show that Bay Area prices have already retreated 10-15% and in some cases back to 2019 levels. Every other listing has 100k+ price cuts or more.

Re: Wells Fargo mortgage staff brace for layoffs as U.S. loan volumes collapse

#29

Post by jjcon »

vinyl7 wrote: post #26
jjcon wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

3 cherry picked cities in the USA? Here is a better source that is national (USA): https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ACTLISCOUUS Listings are still very low compared to pre-pandemic levels not to mention by many metrics there was already a shortage before the pandemic stemming all the way back to the great recession. Some interesting reading: https://usafacts.org/articles/population-growth-has-outpaced... https://ww…

We're really only a month into the new rates. People who locked in at the sub 6% interest rates were still closing in October. Either we see a dramatic drop in prices or inventory will surge. Housing affordability has been demolished with these higher interest rates, so sales will drop off a cliff as we're already seeing with mortgage companies doing mass layoffs.

> so sales will drop off a cliff as we're already seeing with mortgage companies doing mass layoffs.

Certainly, but read these articles. the expert economists and firms. While that may be true it is also true that far fewer people will sell their homes and very few homes will be built exacerbating an already 20 year problem of under building. The USA will have a low demand and low supply problem in the short term but the low supply problem is likely to persist for quite some time (just as it has for the past decade).

Re: Wells Fargo mortgage staff brace for layoffs as U.S. loan volumes collapse

#30

Post by ISL »

lotsofpulp wrote: post #15
throwaway12245 wrote: post #3

Bankruptcy law firm should IPO.

Law firms cannot be publicly listed in the US, they have to be owned by lawyers.

This idea was entirely new to me.

Here's the top Google result on the subject: https://abovethelaw.com/2021/05/will-we-soon-see-an-american...

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