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The Prospects for War with China

chrisblattman.com

11–20 of 87 posts

Re: The Prospects for War with China

#11
post #5

Until very recently, I did not believe that there is any chance that China will attempt to invade Taiwan in the near future. Nevertheless, after USA has not remained content to try to cripple the Chinese semiconductor manufacturing industry, but now it pressures Taiwan to stop manufacturing integrated circuits for China, I have become worried for the first time that a Chinese invasion is no longer impossible. If Taiw…

China will invade Taiwan regardless because their "Great Leader" has made it the center of his foreign policy. Now that there's no more opposition to his rule we can only wait for the ax to fall.

I've already come to the conclusion China has won this fight, because the economic cost will be too great for the West to bare.

My advice to the Biden Administration would be to deprecate the relations with Taiwan to lower expectations of an intervention.

Re: The Prospects for War with China

#12
post #5

Until very recently, I did not believe that there is any chance that China will attempt to invade Taiwan in the near future. Nevertheless, after USA has not remained content to try to cripple the Chinese semiconductor manufacturing industry, but now it pressures Taiwan to stop manufacturing integrated circuits for China, I have become worried for the first time that a Chinese invasion is no longer impossible. If Taiw…

I think China’s goal of annexing Taiwan is more due to principle/propaganda and military/strategic reasons than anything economic. Presumably they’d rather avoid destroying Taiwan’s semiconductor industry, but I doubt that’s their main concern.

Re: The Prospects for War with China

#13

Your analysis is flawed. The U.S. will not risk a nuclear war over an island it doesn't even recognize as an independent state and has no security treaties with. What Biden says about intervening is just bluff. And China knows this. And then there's the prospect of the Taiwanese not even WANTING to fight their own brethren. Sure, they want to remain independent if they can, but if China decides to invade their armed…

> What Biden says about intervening is just bluff. And China knows this.

> And then there's the prospect of the Taiwanese not even WANTING to fight their own brethren.

You make a lot of confident assumptions here which you cannot know for sure.

Re: The Prospects for War with China

#14

Your analysis is flawed. The U.S. will not risk a nuclear war over an island it doesn't even recognize as an independent state and has no security treaties with. What Biden says about intervening is just bluff. And China knows this. And then there's the prospect of the Taiwanese not even WANTING to fight their own brethren. Sure, they want to remain independent if they can, but if China decides to invade their armed…

> What Biden says about intervening is just bluff. And China knows this. … > And then there's the prospect of the Taiwanese not even WANTING to fight their own brethren. You make a lot of confident assumptions here which you cannot know for sure.

On the flip side for the second point, it can just as easily go into the reverse. It’s all very well for the mainland government to declare the island to be a rogue province in revolt, but that just means a war between the two would entail bloodshed between countrymen. That might give at least some Chinese pause, not unlike the contemporary antiwar protests in Russia.

Not to mention given that China has been at peace for decades now, to disrupt their economic growth and prosperous gains in standards of living to go to war would be a hard sell to the average Chinese citizen, regardless of how much control the government might exert over drumming up support for war. One could speculate that they would at least make it seem like a defensive conflict.

Re: The Prospects for War with China

#15

Your analysis is flawed. The U.S. will not risk a nuclear war over an island it doesn't even recognize as an independent state and has no security treaties with. What Biden says about intervening is just bluff. And China knows this. And then there's the prospect of the Taiwanese not even WANTING to fight their own brethren. Sure, they want to remain independent if they can, but if China decides to invade their armed…

This is 100% your own opinion, and no one has said anything about 'nuclear' war. Of course no one wants to fight, if it came down to it, many, including me, would have to defend ourselves.

Re: The Prospects for War with China

#16
post #5

Until very recently, I did not believe that there is any chance that China will attempt to invade Taiwan in the near future. Nevertheless, after USA has not remained content to try to cripple the Chinese semiconductor manufacturing industry, but now it pressures Taiwan to stop manufacturing integrated circuits for China, I have become worried for the first time that a Chinese invasion is no longer impossible. If Taiw…

It should be pretty clear in 2022 that wars can be started despite the negative economic gain, so whether China is interested in Taiwan industry or not can bear very little weight for the decision makers.

Re: The Prospects for War with China

#17
post #5

Until very recently, I did not believe that there is any chance that China will attempt to invade Taiwan in the near future. Nevertheless, after USA has not remained content to try to cripple the Chinese semiconductor manufacturing industry, but now it pressures Taiwan to stop manufacturing integrated circuits for China, I have become worried for the first time that a Chinese invasion is no longer impossible. If Taiw…

China will invade Taiwan regardless because their "Great Leader" has made it the center of his foreign policy. Now that there's no more opposition to his rule we can only wait for the ax to fall. I've already come to the conclusion China has won this fight, because the economic cost will be too great for the West to bare. My advice to the Biden Administration would be to deprecate the relations with Taiwan to lower e…

I wish we could just de-escalate the situation with China. Dial back some of the economic squabbling as well as the military posturing. The West and China need each other economically, and both Biden and Xi are smart enough-- and old enough to remember nuclear terror-- to not want WWIII.

I feel like most of the escalation is coming from the West though. They're the ones tossing around sanctions and national-security noise on speculation-- China might invade Taiwan. Are they willing to upset the order that's maintained stability for decades, and likely derail their economic miracle, over a symbolic chunk of rock? We can't ignore the "economic miracle" angle when comparing with, say, Russia/Ukraine-- Russia can justify an invasion by tossing around a "we've been abused and mocked since 1991, what do we have to lose" narrative, while China's star has been continually rising, so there's no need to recover lost prestige. Ironically, more sanctions and reduced detente could actually encourage an invasion, by reducing the economic ties and stoking fresh hostility, getting closer to the "what do we have to lose" moment.

I feel like the problem is much more on a philosophical level. We're still remixing the Cold War. The current Western/Private Enterprise ecosystem needs to be able to say "THERE IS NO ALTERNATIVE. NOTHING ELSE WILL EVER WORK. IT'S HUMAN NATURE." If we start successfully exploring alternatives, there's a risk of dislodging entrenched wealth. So if a state-capitalist or outright socialist state becomes competitive, the West instinctively responds with full (metaphoric) guns blazing to hobble it. The last thing the current ruling classes want is for people to start saying "Things are actually better off in China" and start asking "so how are they achieving that? Did it involve putting Jack Ma on a tighter leash than we give Elon Musk?"

I personally want to see China succeed. Domestically, they're too big to fail. It's not like we have a way to peacefully and seamlessly transition a country of 1.4 billion people to some shiny new alternative. (Airdropping a fait-accompli democracy is a proven-terrible strategy). On an international-affairs level, we need a more multi-polar world-- we've seen (Iraq, Afghanistan) what happens when we have a single superpower with no real checks to its impunity. On a philosophical level, we shouldn't be packing all the eggs in the Western-Style Free Market/Democracy basket, because we're approaching, if not in a major transition point. We know these systems work somewhat in an age of bounty (cheap fossil fuels, absorbing and consuming an entire new hemisphere in 500 years, slashing of communications costs and latency) but will they still function smoothly in a coming age of scarcity (resource exhaustion, climate change)?

Re: The Prospects for War with China

#18
post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China will invade Taiwan regardless because their "Great Leader" has made it the center of his foreign policy. Now that there's no more opposition to his rule we can only wait for the ax to fall. I've already come to the conclusion China has won this fight, because the economic cost will be too great for the West to bare. My advice to the Biden Administration would be to deprecate the relations with Taiwan to lower e…

I wish we could just de-escalate the situation with China. Dial back some of the economic squabbling as well as the military posturing. The West and China need each other economically, and both Biden and Xi are smart enough-- and old enough to remember nuclear terror-- to not want WWIII. I feel like most of the escalation is coming from the West though. They're the ones tossing around sanctions and national-security…

> I feel like most of the escalation is coming from the West though. They're the ones tossing around sanctions and national-security noise on speculation-- China might invade Taiwan.

China is free to anytime declare their intention of never invading Taiwan. China is free to anytime officially recognize the fact that the PRC and the ROC are two separate governments of two separate countries. China is free to anytime clarify to the world that they truly value peace. But really it doesn’t seem that they do.

Re: The Prospects for War with China

#19
post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wish we could just de-escalate the situation with China. Dial back some of the economic squabbling as well as the military posturing. The West and China need each other economically, and both Biden and Xi are smart enough-- and old enough to remember nuclear terror-- to not want WWIII. I feel like most of the escalation is coming from the West though. They're the ones tossing around sanctions and national-security…

> I feel like most of the escalation is coming from the West though. They're the ones tossing around sanctions and national-security noise on speculation-- China might invade Taiwan. China is free to anytime declare their intention of never invading Taiwan. China is free to anytime officially recognize the fact that the PRC and the ROC are two separate governments of two separate countries. China is free to anytime c…

Taiwan claims that China belongs to them. Why do you not require them to declare anything?

Re: The Prospects for War with China

#20
post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wish we could just de-escalate the situation with China. Dial back some of the economic squabbling as well as the military posturing. The West and China need each other economically, and both Biden and Xi are smart enough-- and old enough to remember nuclear terror-- to not want WWIII. I feel like most of the escalation is coming from the West though. They're the ones tossing around sanctions and national-security…

> I feel like most of the escalation is coming from the West though. They're the ones tossing around sanctions and national-security noise on speculation-- China might invade Taiwan. China is free to anytime declare their intention of never invading Taiwan. China is free to anytime officially recognize the fact that the PRC and the ROC are two separate governments of two separate countries. China is free to anytime c…

counterpoint:

The US is free at any time to stop invading other countries, trying to overthrow other countries, and enter into conflicts thousands of miles from their borders. But really, it doesn't seem that they do.

The US has invaded or attacked over 120 countries since 1991[1]. Absolutely none of them were a threat to the United States. How many countries has China invaded in the same period? How many has it bombed? Imposed sanctions on? Occupied?

[1]https://sites.tufts.edu/css/mip-research/

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