The Prospects for War with China
chrisblattman.com
The Prospects for War with China
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Re: The Prospects for War with China
#2I call it “West Taiwan,” not “China.”
Re: The Prospects for War with China
#3This guy is smart. Many people profit from cold (and hot) war.
"Whether you like it or not, America and Europe have a strategic interest in fueling the Ukraine conflict for reputation-building purposes (in addition to any ideological motives). Frankly, this is why I think the US ought to escalate support for Ukraine."
Re: The Prospects for War with China
#4This guy is smart. Many people profit from cold (and hot) war. "Whether you like it or not, America and Europe have a strategic interest in fueling the Ukraine conflict for reputation-building purposes (in addition to any ideological motives). Frankly, this is why I think the US ought to escalate support for Ukraine."
Politicians: “No, of course we don’t want war with X”
The think tankers they fund: “Kill them all”
Re: The Prospects for War with China
#5Until very recently, I did not believe that there is any chance that China will attempt to invade Taiwan in the near future.
Nevertheless, after USA has not remained content to try to cripple the Chinese semiconductor manufacturing industry, but now it pressures Taiwan to stop manufacturing integrated circuits for China, I have become worried for the first time that a Chinese invasion is no longer impossible.
If Taiwan does not manufacture Chinese ICs any more, then Taiwan is no longer valuable for China and they do not have any reason to care whether the Taiwanese industry is destroyed, because such a destruction will not change anything for them. This removes one of the most important costs of an invasion decision.
Re: The Prospects for War with China
#6This guy is smart. Many people profit from cold (and hot) war. "Whether you like it or not, America and Europe have a strategic interest in fueling the Ukraine conflict for reputation-building purposes (in addition to any ideological motives). Frankly, this is why I think the US ought to escalate support for Ukraine."
Politicians: “No, of course we don’t want war with X” The think tankers they fund: “Kill them all”
> Politicians: “No, of course we don’t want war with Xi”
The think tankers they fund: “Kill them all”
One letter. No difference!
Re: The Prospects for War with China
#7I call it “West Taiwan,” not “China.”
I used to find this joke amusing but not anymore.
Not even the most hardcore Taiwanese independence advocate calls China "West Taiwan" because nobody in Taiwan wants to invade China (Except for some of the older generation and they call China "The Republic of China").
The idea of "West Taiwan" is so preposterous but I know it came as a natural byproduct of the "TAIWAN #1" meme, just to piss of Chinese people that were taught to look down on Taiwan. I can assure you that there were Taiwanese people getting in on that original joke.
It just seems like the only people that refer to "China," as "West Taiwan" are essentially rooting to watch a war from across the ocean and clearly have zero skin in the game.
Source: I'm a mod of /r/taiwanindependence - you're welcome to join us there :).
Re: The Prospects for War with China
#8The article rests on the assumption that Taiwan really is the center of the conflict and the West only defends it out of the goodness of their hearts (or to defend some local economic/strategic advantages such as access to TSMC or an open South China Sea).
Following that assumption, the conflict could be instantly defused if some compromise about Taiwan's status on the unification/independence scale could be reached (or where any option to change the status quo would be more costly for all sides than keeping it)
I worry that the situation could really be the inverse - that Taiwan is just a flashpoint in a larger US/West vs China conflict which is already well on the way. Another consequence of China's explosive economic growth that the article didn't go into was that China is now becoming a US rival and is openly challenging the international system and the "liberal international order". They are increasingly setting up counter institutions, such as the Silk Road or the SCO and the West sees itself pressured to react to that.
As such, I think Biden's "autocracy vs democracy" line was at least getting the scale of the conflict right.
Re: The Prospects for War with China
#9Your analysis is flawed. The U.S. will not risk a nuclear war over an island it doesn't even recognize as an independent state and has no security treaties with.
What Biden says about intervening is just bluff. And China knows this.
And then there's the prospect of the Taiwanese not even WANTING to fight their own brethren. Sure, they want to remain independent if they can, but if China decides to invade their armed forces will simply throw away their arms and go home. Do we want our soldiers to lose their lives for a people that hasn't even demonstrated their will to fight for their independence? Fuck that!
China is attempting to put its tentacles everywhere, making it extremely costly for Western nations to completely decouple from China economically.
For example: Apple is so deep in bed with China that if an invasion were to occur the company would simply go bankrupt. Bankrupt! We're talking about a company with a market valuation of almost $2 trillion!! It would be very hard for the Biden Administration to make that choice. And that's just one U.S. company. There are probably dozens like them in the same boat.
From what I gather Volkswagen would face an existential threat if it were banned from selling its cars in China. No way, the Germans would allow that, no matter what the U.S. says.
No, there will not be a nuclear war over Taiwan. Merely a few pinpricks in terms of sanctions.
Re: The Prospects for War with China
#10Until very recently, I did not believe that there is any chance that China will attempt to invade Taiwan in the near future. Nevertheless, after USA has not remained content to try to cripple the Chinese semiconductor manufacturing industry, but now it pressures Taiwan to stop manufacturing integrated circuits for China, I have become worried for the first time that a Chinese invasion is no longer impossible. If Taiw…
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