Why Meta is tanking and how Zuckerberg can fix it • Hacker News Board

Re: Why Meta is tanking and how Zuckerberg can fix it

#51

Post by usrusr » Tue, Nov 01, 2022, 1:40 PM UTC

_jal wrote: post #11

aliqot wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For you maybe, but people are vain enough to pay 20 bucks and more for a little blue check. There were insider rings charging much more for it. Time will tell though, if the easiness with which a blue checkmark is acquired will diminish the significance of having one, and to what degree.

We'll have to see. When it was "exclusive" and indicated some degree of notability, yeah, people who couldn't get it wanted it. Now it signifies you're willing to pay $250/year for a virtual hood ornament. A nice signal for scammers, but otherwise like listing yourself in "Who's Who".

There are different ways it could work out. On Strava, more than half of the people I interact with are subscribers and that used to be more a signal of "willing to chime in for the platform to remain mostly ad-free" than a fee for extended freemium features (this has changed a bit, more paywalled features, and I'm not too happy about that despite being a subscriber).

I believe that it would be possible (even if not likely) for Twitter to shift into a lean state where they focus on just keeping the boat running and fostering loyalty with those who can and want to afford a subscription that's more a supporter badge than a gateway to extended features. Certainly depends on how much of their current cost is essentially ad sales and how much of that they can (and want to) cut. At least they are certainly much closer to that than anything Meta ever created or bought (with the exception of Oculus, which might certainly have been on a path to becoming a viable hardware company had it not received the Zuck's kiss of becoming deeply untrustable)

Re: Why Meta is tanking and how Zuckerberg can fix it

#52

Post by c7b » Tue, Nov 01, 2022, 1:42 PM UTC

Invictus0 wrote: post #21

Zucc knows what he's doing. No investor was ever going to love the $40B capex on metaverse, they would happily ride the Facebook cash cow into the ground and suck the life out of the company dividend by dividend. Zucc just doesn't care about the quarterly reports, he's going to execute on his vision regardless.

Zuck's vision is btw directly taken from an explicitly dystopian narrative of how VR tech could play out. It is a vision that would be a net positive for humanity if it failed (and its fate is btw not tied to the success of AR/VR tech in general - it's quite conceivable that the one takes off without the other). It's driven by greed for money and power, and it is quite ironic that it happens to be Wall Street that's delivered the strongest negative verdict so far (which doesn't mean that it has to fail, btw - I was short Meta since they announced this vision, but I might consider realizing those gains soon).

Re: Why Meta is tanking and how Zuckerberg can fix it

#53

Post by LatteLazy » Tue, Nov 01, 2022, 1:42 PM UTC

Facebook is a mature company. That represents 2 problems:

* Zuck doesn't want to run a mature company, it's boring trying to squeeze 0.001% efficiency out of mature business models.

* It's price/earnings ratio assumes there is a shit tonne more growth coming.

Right now, the Metaverse is just the best (or least bad depending on your opinion) opportunity to NOT just accept Facebook is now in it's middle age. Maybe that will work. Maybe it won't. But that's what is happening here IMHO.

Re: Why Meta is tanking and how Zuckerberg can fix it

#54

Post by colinmhayes » Tue, Nov 01, 2022, 1:43 PM UTC

VLM wrote: post #47

Follow the money not the tech for this story. Facebook sold to individuals as a workforce automation platform for teenage girl relationships-as-a-pattern that anyone can use, AND double dipped selling to biz and gov as a propaganda outlet and that makes huge revenue until people get tired of it, disillusioned, and move on. It seems to mostly be bots and addicts now, I wouldn't go there in 2022, to actually socialize…

You’re right to say follow the money, but you didn’t actually do it. Revenue is basically flat. Ad impressions up around 20% this year. Engagement is not going down. Meta stock is down 70% this year because mark just said he’s going to lose 15 billion on reality labs next year even though ever single investor is saying that number is at least 5x too high. Investors no longer trust mark has their best interest at heart.

Re: Why Meta is tanking and how Zuckerberg can fix it

#55

Post by fullshark » Tue, Nov 01, 2022, 1:43 PM UTC

Invictus0 wrote: post #21

Zucc knows what he's doing. No investor was ever going to love the $40B capex on metaverse, they would happily ride the Facebook cash cow into the ground and suck the life out of the company dividend by dividend. Zucc just doesn't care about the quarterly reports, he's going to execute on his vision regardless.

Why is it binary? Why is 40B capex going to make it a reality and 30B/20B/10B not?

Re: Why Meta is tanking and how Zuckerberg can fix it

#56

Post by JKCalhoun » Tue, Nov 01, 2022, 1:48 PM UTC

Levy is suggesting Meta break into FB “OG” and Metaverse. It sounds a little like an amputation where a limb has developed gangrene. I’m still not sure the patient will survive. And not even sure which is the patient and which the limb.

Re: Why Meta is tanking and how Zuckerberg can fix it

#57

Post by w1nst0nsm1th » Tue, Nov 01, 2022, 1:49 PM UTC

vlunkr wrote: post #50

Zuckerberg seems to really think that VR is the next ”big thing” like the iPhone. I’m curious what people here think about that. I’m currently on the skeptical side for a couple of reasons. The tech isn’t there. These headsets are bulky and ugly, only very dedicated users are willing to wear them for hours a day. Maybe someday they’ll be the size of Google glass, but it’s certainly too early to bet your company on it…

There is already great "experiences" in VR.

One issue being that for a lot of them you need a room dedicated to it.

Another issue is, If you happen to be addicted to your couch, a lot of games doesn't work... Because you have to stand up to play them.

Re: Why Meta is tanking and how Zuckerberg can fix it

#58

Post by usrusr » Tue, Nov 01, 2022, 1:52 PM UTC

giaour wrote: post #36

cma wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's how universities with donor and alumni preference work. They let in notable people more easily and people that test well may even get a scholarship, and others can bribe to be included in the club.

Bribing your way into an elite college costs a lot more than $20/month, though. As a society, we also confer prestige on a lot of things that basically amount to spending a prohibitively large sum of money: running a foundation; being an angel investor; owning a sports team, champion racehorse, Lamborghini, etc. But if just anybody can afford something and the only barrier to entry is cost, then it has no social curr…

There are plenty of goods that work essentially like veblen goods but that are not really out of reach for anybody who is a non-zero amount of disposable beyond starvation. Converse shoes, Ray Ban shades, there's an endless list of brands that people pay a premium for to show off, despite not containing even the tiniest trace of that exclusivity that stems from being prohibitively expensive.

Re: Why Meta is tanking and how Zuckerberg can fix it

#59

Post by throw7 » Tue, Nov 01, 2022, 1:57 PM UTC

I've honestly hated this "social graph" mentality from the beginning. When I install your "app" I don't want everyone in the world to know and contact me now. Obviously I'm in the minority, but with some say changes to the "social graph" that puts me in control, you could actually grow your market to include people like me.

Re: Why Meta is tanking and how Zuckerberg can fix it

#60

Post by giaour » Tue, Nov 01, 2022, 1:59 PM UTC

usrusr wrote: post #58

giaour wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bribing your way into an elite college costs a lot more than $20/month, though. As a society, we also confer prestige on a lot of things that basically amount to spending a prohibitively large sum of money: running a foundation; being an angel investor; owning a sports team, champion racehorse, Lamborghini, etc. But if just anybody can afford something and the only barrier to entry is cost, then it has no social curr…

There are plenty of goods that work essentially like veblen goods but that are not really out of reach for anybody who is a non-zero amount of disposable beyond starvation. Converse shoes, Ray Ban shades, there's an endless list of brands that people pay a premium for to show off, despite not containing even the tiniest trace of that exclusivity that stems from being prohibitively expensive.

The last clause in your comment is doing a lot of work. Prohibitive cost is only one form of exclusivity, but there are many others. For example, Twitter’s blue checks are free today but difficult to obtain. It sounds like Twitter is looking to replace the current system of exclusivity with one based on cost, and $20/month just isn’t very exclusive.