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Forbes is wrong about “Developernomics”

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Re: Forbes is wrong about “Developernomics”

#31
Meh, all of these debates about "the mythical 10x programmer" are missing an important point: You can't just lump all programmers into one batch in the first place. That is, I posit that there are programmers who are better at certain things, or better in certain domains, or better at certain times of day, or even better during certain phases of the moon. Whatever.

Maybe one guy is a goddamn genius when it comes to writing embedded systems code in C, but if you put him to work writing CRUD webapps in Ruby, he might just be average. Or vice versa. Or maybe one gal is shit-hot at writing statistical analysis code for dealing with scientific data, but is useless if recast into a role doing embedded systems in C. Who knows?

To use an analogy, imagine this... you have a group of football players. You take the one who's best suited for playing Left Tackle and ask him to play Tailback. And maybe you move the Quarterback to Fullback. In either case, they are going to fail miserably, even if they would otherwise be an All-Pro at their "natural" position, simply because the attributes required to be great can't be generalized to a generic "Football Player" requirement.

In other words "Fit Matters." I posit that it matters a LOT more than most people acknowledge, or certainly more than you hear anybody discussing. And let's not even get into the importance of chemistry and the "gel" factor among the members of a team. It isn't popular to talk about these factors; probably because they're hard to measure / validate empirically and so this all remains a mostly subjective thing. But I believe this discussion is just as important as - if not more important than - all the debate about "10x programmers."

Re: Forbes is wrong about “Developernomics”

#32

"Professional talent does vary, but there is not a shred of evidence that the best professional developers are an order of magnitude more productive than median developers at any timescale, much less on a meaningful timescale such as that of a product release cycle." Nonsense. I have seen evidence of it on nearly every project I've been on for 18 years now. It's one of the most obvious facts of enterprise software de…

I have seen evidence of it on nearly every project I've been on for 18 years now. It's one of the most obvious facts of enterprise software development.

I haven't seen any evidence of a 10x disparity in productivity myself. Of course measuring productivity is a dodgy issue in the first place, and I've never ran a proper scientific study on the matter... but my subjective observation of a decade and a half of doing this stuff, is that the spread between individual developers (excluding the ones who are so incompetent that they get fired in short order) is probably more like 3x-4x at most.

Re: Forbes is wrong about “Developernomics”

#33

I find the entire article quite poorly thought out and I disagree with it more or less entirely. One part in particular stood out as being perhaps the most offensive to reason: "Professional talent does vary, but there is not a shred of evidence that the best professional developers are an order of magnitude more productive than median developers at any timescale, much less on a meaningful timescale such as that of a…

I have no idea about the median developer, but the median job applicant is surely an order of magnitude worse than the top since the lower end spends much more time looking for work and the top devs never have to interview. So if you judge the industry by your experiences interviewing applicants it will be very bleak indeed.

Re: Forbes is wrong about “Developernomics”

#34
post #9

> there is not a shred of evidence that the best professional developers are an order of magnitude more productive than median developers at any timescale, I beg to differ, using examples of Fabrice Bellard creating QEMU, Brendan Eich creating JavaScript or PG creating Arc and HN. Of course there are other examples out there, one just ought to look. Those are not tasks a single `industry average' developer or a team…

>Perhaps in 10x the timeframe they would producte something of similar capability I think you missed a few zeros there!.I would argue that most developers would never (yes not even if they spend their entire lives) come up with anything even close to Fabrice Bellard or Paul Graham. The difference is not genetic but of attitudes and as we all know very people are willing to change their attitudes.

> anything even close to Fabrice Bellard or Paul Graham.

Are you speaking about monetary gain or programming product?

And depending on your choice, what made you put them in the same league?

Re: Forbes is wrong about “Developernomics”

#36
I know physicists/programmers who are not only 10x faster in getting anything done, but can do in a day what most programmers never achieve in a career. You'd better believe there are massive differences in productivity -- or your business will be inevitably outcompeted, and fail.

Re: Forbes is wrong about “Developernomics”

#37

"Professional talent does vary, but there is not a shred of evidence that the best professional developers are an order of magnitude more productive than median developers at any timescale, much less on a meaningful timescale such as that of a product release cycle." Nonsense. I have seen evidence of it on nearly every project I've been on for 18 years now. It's one of the most obvious facts of enterprise software de…

I have seen evidence of it on nearly every project I've been on for 18 years now. It's one of the most obvious facts of enterprise software development. I haven't seen any evidence of a 10x disparity in productivity myself. Of course measuring productivity is a dodgy issue in the first place, and I've never ran a proper scientific study on the matter... but my subjective observation of a decade and a half of doing th…

I think it depends on who you've met.

In the area of debugging games, I have been EASILY 10x more productive than the developers I was supporting in finding bugs in their code. In fact, you could say infinitely more productive, because they would typically spend hours or days trying to find the bug, and the only reason I'd ever see it is that they failed to find it.

I was the architect of the underlying game engine used by a casual game publisher, and I was the last line of defense if one of our developers got stuck. Most of the bugs weren't even related to my engine, but were deep in their game code, which I typically had never seen before I dove in.

In one case a developer had been trying to find a bug for weeks when they finally punted to me. I had it fixed in a half hour. I never spent more than a day finding one of these "impossible to find" bugs, and 95% were fixed in 1-3 hours.

These are all developers who otherwise are at least average, and possibly above average. We certainly ran them through technical interviews and determined they were at least competent to begin with, and they DID all eventually ship games. So you can't tell me that 10x average doesn't exist, at least in particular areas of expertise.

If you wanted me to write a CRUD app, or anything in Rails, though, it would take me a while to get up to speed.

Re: Forbes is wrong about “Developernomics”

#38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have seen evidence of it on nearly every project I've been on for 18 years now. It's one of the most obvious facts of enterprise software development. I haven't seen any evidence of a 10x disparity in productivity myself. Of course measuring productivity is a dodgy issue in the first place, and I've never ran a proper scientific study on the matter... but my subjective observation of a decade and a half of doing th…

I think it depends on who you've met. In the area of debugging games, I have been EASILY 10x more productive than the developers I was supporting in finding bugs in their code. In fact, you could say infinitely more productive, because they would typically spend hours or days trying to find the bug, and the only reason I'd ever see it is that they failed to find it. I was the architect of the underlying game engine u…

Are these people actually worse, or are you simply benefiting by supplying "a pair of fresh eyes" on the problem?

Re: Forbes is wrong about “Developernomics”

#39

Meh, all of these debates about "the mythical 10x programmer" are missing an important point: You can't just lump all programmers into one batch in the first place. That is, I posit that there are programmers who are better at certain things, or better in certain domains, or better at certain times of day, or even better during certain phases of the moon. Whatever. Maybe one guy is a goddamn genius when it comes to w…

I believe in the "10x programmer" phenomenon.. In my experience, the best programmers seem to quickly become very good at whatever development task they put their minds to.

Re: Forbes is wrong about “Developernomics”

#40
post #26
post #9

> there is not a shred of evidence that the best professional developers are an order of magnitude more productive than median developers at any timescale, I beg to differ, using examples of Fabrice Bellard creating QEMU, Brendan Eich creating JavaScript or PG creating Arc and HN. Of course there are other examples out there, one just ought to look. Those are not tasks a single `industry average' developer or a team…

Really, these are anecdotes, not evidence. And I think he chose his words carefully, he said median , not average . Of course - to paraphrase Greg Wilson[1] - if one were to go further and compare the "best" driver to the "worst" driver, the difference would be to the power of infinity because the worst driver is dead . The comparison is not useful. I'd love to see some studies on this sort of stuff though. [1] "Greg…

Great video. Do you know if the book that he mentioned, originally to be called Beautiful Evidence, but that he had to change the name, was published? By which name?
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