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Europe now has so much natural gas that prices just dipped below zero

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Re: Europe now has so much natural gas that prices just dipped below zero

#191

Post by kgwgk »

freefaler wrote: post #154
jefftk wrote: post #5

Normally you run storage facilities neither all the way full nor all the way empty: you want to be able to smooth out fluctuations in supply and demand. Because of the war Europe is running gas storage near its upper limit, which means we should expect less flexibility and more price volatility: they won't want to draw them way down if we get a serious cold snap, and they have nowhere to put extra gas if it's warmer…

Some important caveats - the storage squeeze is only in Spain - storage facilities are pre-booked, meaning the if you want to buy some gas you should've booked the some storage beforehand. Storage supply is a non-elastic on the shore.

Dutch gas spot prices for delivery within an hour going negative may be telling us something about the spare storage capacity connected to that network though.

Re: Europe now has so much natural gas that prices just dipped below zero

#192

Post by Gravityloss »

There have also been a lot of new interconnect pipes installed in the recent years. Basically all the way from Norway-Scotland-England-France-Poland-Lithuania-Latvia-Estonia-Finland it's part of the same network, although I'm sure there are bottlenecks.

Here's a recent new pipeline part: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gas_Interconnection_Poland%E2%...

Sprinkle some LNG terminals which have and are coming also online, and it becomes much more resilient.

There's a lot of this diligent infrastructure work going behind the scenes, away from the political drama.

Re: Europe now has so much natural gas that prices just dipped below zero

#193

Post by sandos »

atty wrote: post #16

I am an American and not knowledgeable about how energy pricing works, so I am curious, how do we square this with the rates that Europeans have been paying for energy and natural gas lately? Are utilities making off like bandits? Or were they running very low over the last few months and suddenly got a huge influx?

Spot electricity prices have been low in Scandinavia, too, so the markets are, at least weakly, linked.

Re: Europe now has so much natural gas that prices just dipped below zero

#194

Post by Maursault »

circlefavshape wrote: post #189
AlmostAnyone wrote: post #177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nope. This year, astronomical winter begins on 21 December 2022 and ends on 20 March 2023. Meteorological winter begins on 1 December. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/learn-about/weather/sea...

Irish winter starts the day after Halloween https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irish_calendar

      Now is the winter of our discontent
      Made glorious summer by this sun of York;
      And all the clouds that lour'd upon our house
      In the deep bosom of the ocean buried.[1]
[1] Shakespeare, William, Richard III, 1.1.1-4

Re: Europe now has so much natural gas that prices just dipped below zero

#196

Post by LargoLasskhyfv »

tenpies wrote: post #150
imnotlost wrote: post #86

The headline should be that Europe as 0 storage capacity so people will pay to get rid of the natgas (someone else should store it). This is a temporary problem and does not mean the natgas issues are solved for the winter. There was a similar issue with oil storage in April 2020[1] [1] https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/20/business/oil-prices.html

Exactly, we are witnessing supply destruction. It's worth considering that liquid natural gas is one of the most expensive (in both emissions and cost) to ship. It needs to be held in special LNG carrier ships that can keep it not only at the right pressure, but the right temperature (against vast fluctuations). The crew on this ship requires special training and the ships carry a different insurance profile. This is…

Crazy idea...

Let them refill ships like these https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CMA_CGM_Jacques_Saad%C3%A9 at sea! While https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Slow_steaming

Like aerial refueling for military aircrafts, where the tankers are circling back and forth along the traffic patterns in the air!

Re: Europe now has so much natural gas that prices just dipped below zero

#197

Post by Dma54rhs »

ralphmelish wrote: post #190
Dma54rhs wrote: post #187

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not from Holland but in EU and I pay hourly market rate of my regions electricity pool.

So your prices are constantly changing? How much do you pay on average for a kW?

Yup, around 15c/kwh, spot prices are common over EU in some countries more than others.
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