41–50 of 300 posts
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Inflation means GDP can grow, with expenses growing faster.
This 2.6% figure is real GDP, meaning it's adjusted for inflation. [0] [0] https://www.bea.gov/news/2022/gross-domestic-product-third-q...
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The fed said interest rates will keep being raised until unemployment rises.
Did the fed actually say this? There were a bunch of investment bankers who did, and it seems like everyone else ran with the narrative. I haven't seen that the fed actually said it. I think all the fed cares about is bringing down inflation, but if the primary factors in inflation are supply related then unemployment doesn't have to go up for inflation to come down.
You’ll be able to find it, I believe in you.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
I've been waiting for the real estate market to crash for 20 years... On the other, my savings are worth less and less.
Don't worry, population collapse will fix this in another ~20-30 years. You'll get there.
In most western nations, it's not going to be that big of a deal, I wager. In areas with net emigration, especially those that are not good at sharing true demographics with their leaders, it'll be devastating.
This is the weirdest "recession" I can remember. Business leaders are constantly talking about how challenging the economic environment is and the need for layoffs etc. Meanwhile most of the underlying indicators are actually positive. Growth is strong, employment is strong. Anecdotally we're still having trouble finding good candidates. It's almost like there is a class of business leaders who are just trying to wis…
The fed said interest rates will keep being raised until unemployment rises.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
When you adjust for money supply inflation (peak at around 24%) instead of price inflation (peak at around 9%), every indicators become very red. I think money supply inflation reflects more the reality and explain the current bearish sentiment.
> adjust for money supply inflation (spiked at around 24%) instead of price inflation (spiked at around 9%) The former is a fake metric. Measuring changes in the monetary base [1] is a thing. But it’s seldom accurately reflected in a single figure. Also, the 2.6% is real GDP growth. Current-dollar growth was 6.7% annualised [1]. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monetary_base [2] https://www.bea.gov/news/2022/gross-d…
I am using M2 money supply. Basically trying to proxy how much money more we printed this past few years.
Source: https://www.longtermtrends.net/m2-money-supply-vs-inflation/
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I've been waiting for the real estate market to crash for 20 years... On the other, my savings are worth less and less.
Don't worry, population collapse will fix this in another ~20-30 years. You'll get there.
There is no shortage of people willing to start a new life in the wealthiest economy on the planet.
The end of population growth is certainly going to shake things up -- but who is to say how policies won't change to accommodate the new reality.
Does inflation factor into this number?
This is the weirdest "recession" I can remember. Business leaders are constantly talking about how challenging the economic environment is and the need for layoffs etc. Meanwhile most of the underlying indicators are actually positive. Growth is strong, employment is strong. Anecdotally we're still having trouble finding good candidates. It's almost like there is a class of business leaders who are just trying to wis…
Another piece of the puzzle is the big drop in labor productivity lately - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/OPHNFB . Could the data you mention be explained by workers previously being in jobs where they were unproductive, being laid off but then quickly reabsorbed by the hot labor market into more efficient lines of work?
This is the weirdest "recession" I can remember. Business leaders are constantly talking about how challenging the economic environment is and the need for layoffs etc. Meanwhile most of the underlying indicators are actually positive. Growth is strong, employment is strong. Anecdotally we're still having trouble finding good candidates. It's almost like there is a class of business leaders who are just trying to wis…
Business leaders know the financial structure of their company, and many of them know that they can't survive at 2% rates, let alone 5 or 10% rates. The gloom from business leaders is forward-looking. They're fine for now, while consumer spending holds up and they can run on old debt. But as soon as they need to roll over their debt, everything collapses. They'd need to increase revenues by 2-5x, and they can't.
My prediction is that we drive off a cliff. CEOs know their companies can't survive high rates, so they manage as if a Fed pivot is coming. If the expected Fed pivot happens, they bank windfall profits and get huge stock bonuses. If it doesn't, they go bankrupt, everybody is out of work, and it is not their problem anymore.
This is the weirdest "recession" I can remember. Business leaders are constantly talking about how challenging the economic environment is and the need for layoffs etc. Meanwhile most of the underlying indicators are actually positive. Growth is strong, employment is strong. Anecdotally we're still having trouble finding good candidates. It's almost like there is a class of business leaders who are just trying to wis…
You may find a clue in the results on Nov 8th.