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US economy returned to growth last quarter, expanding 2.6%

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Re: US economy returned to growth last quarter, expanding 2.6%

#21

Post by SantalBlush »

bushbaba wrote: post #16
importantbrian wrote: post #6

This is the weirdest "recession" I can remember. Business leaders are constantly talking about how challenging the economic environment is and the need for layoffs etc. Meanwhile most of the underlying indicators are actually positive. Growth is strong, employment is strong. Anecdotally we're still having trouble finding good candidates. It's almost like there is a class of business leaders who are just trying to wis…

Inflation means GDP can grow, with expenses growing faster.

This 2.6% figure is real GDP, meaning it's adjusted for inflation. [0]

[0] https://www.bea.gov/news/2022/gross-domestic-product-third-q...

Re: US economy returned to growth last quarter, expanding 2.6%

#22

Post by brink »

yodsanklai wrote: post #20
jvanderbot wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We took a hard look at the economy before buying our house. Ultimately, we bought when interest rates were high, but prices had not yet come down. There's no crystal ball, but it sure looks like our investment will go down in value in the next few years, perhaps precipitously. I think of it this way: We bought the house we want for the price we can afford, and will happily enjoy it for two decades without price infla…

I've been waiting for the real estate market to crash for 20 years... On the other, my savings are worth less and less.

Don't worry, population collapse will fix this in another ~20-30 years. You'll get there.

Re: US economy returned to growth last quarter, expanding 2.6%

#23

Post by newaccount2021 »

alexb_ wrote: post #2

>Housing investment, though, plunged at a 26% annual pace, hammered by surging mortgage rates as the Federal Reserve aggressively raises borrowing costs to combat chronic inflation. It was the sixth straight quarterly drop in residential investment. Thank christ. Please bring on a housing crash ASAP.

No post body was provided.

Re: US economy returned to growth last quarter, expanding 2.6%

#24

Post by rendang »

importantbrian wrote: post #6

This is the weirdest "recession" I can remember. Business leaders are constantly talking about how challenging the economic environment is and the need for layoffs etc. Meanwhile most of the underlying indicators are actually positive. Growth is strong, employment is strong. Anecdotally we're still having trouble finding good candidates. It's almost like there is a class of business leaders who are just trying to wis…

Another piece of the puzzle is the big drop in labor productivity lately - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/OPHNFB. Could the data you mention be explained by workers previously being in jobs where they were unproductive, being laid off but then quickly reabsorbed by the hot labor market into more efficient lines of work?

Re: US economy returned to growth last quarter, expanding 2.6%

#25

Post by bergenty »

importantbrian wrote: post #6

This is the weirdest "recession" I can remember. Business leaders are constantly talking about how challenging the economic environment is and the need for layoffs etc. Meanwhile most of the underlying indicators are actually positive. Growth is strong, employment is strong. Anecdotally we're still having trouble finding good candidates. It's almost like there is a class of business leaders who are just trying to wis…

This is inspite of the fed raising the rates. I believe the fed may have missed the boat for a bit but they started raising rates just in time. This economy is resilient and honestly it’s a beautiful thing to see.

Re: US economy returned to growth last quarter, expanding 2.6%

#26

Post by glial »

bagels wrote: post #9
importantbrian wrote: post #6

This is the weirdest "recession" I can remember. Business leaders are constantly talking about how challenging the economic environment is and the need for layoffs etc. Meanwhile most of the underlying indicators are actually positive. Growth is strong, employment is strong. Anecdotally we're still having trouble finding good candidates. It's almost like there is a class of business leaders who are just trying to wis…

The fed said interest rates will keep being raised until unemployment rises.

Which is so strange and violates two of their three mandates - maximum employment and moderate interest rates.

Re: US economy returned to growth last quarter, expanding 2.6%

#27

Post by [deleted] »

pavlov wrote: post #7
SantalBlush wrote: post #3

The EU has a similar committee to the NBER, which identifies EU business cycles. They also do not use the colloquial "2 quarters of decline in GDP" definition, though at least 2 quarters of decline is often seen in those recessions that they do identify. [0] >Most of the recessions identified by the Committee’s procedures consist of two or more quarters of declining real GDP, but declining real GDP is not the only in…

It’s shocking to me how many people in America are hoping for the national economy to do poorly so that their party could win the next election. This isn’t just limited to one tribe. The same doesn’t exist in Europe AFAICT. I don’t believe anybody is hoping that Putin would shut down the gas pipes for good so that their favorite politician could win an election next year.

[deleted]

Re: US economy returned to growth last quarter, expanding 2.6%

#28

Post by importantbrian »

bagels wrote: post #9
importantbrian wrote: post #6

This is the weirdest "recession" I can remember. Business leaders are constantly talking about how challenging the economic environment is and the need for layoffs etc. Meanwhile most of the underlying indicators are actually positive. Growth is strong, employment is strong. Anecdotally we're still having trouble finding good candidates. It's almost like there is a class of business leaders who are just trying to wis…

The fed said interest rates will keep being raised until unemployment rises.

Did the fed actually say this? There were a bunch of investment bankers who did, and it seems like everyone else ran with the narrative. I haven't seen that the fed actually said it. I think all the fed cares about is bringing down inflation, but if the primary factors in inflation are supply related then unemployment doesn't have to go up for inflation to come down.

Re: US economy returned to growth last quarter, expanding 2.6%

#29

Post by rendang »

yodsanklai wrote: post #20
jvanderbot wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We took a hard look at the economy before buying our house. Ultimately, we bought when interest rates were high, but prices had not yet come down. There's no crystal ball, but it sure looks like our investment will go down in value in the next few years, perhaps precipitously. I think of it this way: We bought the house we want for the price we can afford, and will happily enjoy it for two decades without price infla…

I've been waiting for the real estate market to crash for 20 years... On the other, my savings are worth less and less.

In the US? Prices from 2011-2016 or so were not that bad, and were lower than 2006 in many cities.

Re: US economy returned to growth last quarter, expanding 2.6%

#30

Post by [deleted] »

pavlov wrote: post #7
SantalBlush wrote: post #3

The EU has a similar committee to the NBER, which identifies EU business cycles. They also do not use the colloquial "2 quarters of decline in GDP" definition, though at least 2 quarters of decline is often seen in those recessions that they do identify. [0] >Most of the recessions identified by the Committee’s procedures consist of two or more quarters of declining real GDP, but declining real GDP is not the only in…

It’s shocking to me how many people in America are hoping for the national economy to do poorly so that their party could win the next election. This isn’t just limited to one tribe. The same doesn’t exist in Europe AFAICT. I don’t believe anybody is hoping that Putin would shut down the gas pipes for good so that their favorite politician could win an election next year.

[deleted]
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