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US economy returned to growth last quarter, expanding 2.6%

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Re: US economy returned to growth last quarter, expanding 2.6%

#11

Post by kristjansson »

jvanderbot wrote: post #5
alexb_ wrote: post #2

>Housing investment, though, plunged at a 26% annual pace, hammered by surging mortgage rates as the Federal Reserve aggressively raises borrowing costs to combat chronic inflation. It was the sixth straight quarterly drop in residential investment. Thank christ. Please bring on a housing crash ASAP.

We took a hard look at the economy before buying our house. Ultimately, we bought when interest rates were high, but prices had not yet come down. There's no crystal ball, but it sure looks like our investment will go down in value in the next few years, perhaps precipitously. I think of it this way: We bought the house we want for the price we can afford, and will happily enjoy it for two decades without price infla…

Yup, a house is housing first and an investment second.

Re: US economy returned to growth last quarter, expanding 2.6%

#12

Post by SevenNation »

> Overall, the outlook for the overall economy has darkened. The Fed has raised interest rates five times this year and is set to do so again next week and in December. Chair Jerome Powell has warned that the Fed’s hikes will bring “pain” in the form of higher unemployment and possibly a recession.

Those hinging important economic decisions on the "Powell Pivot" are going to have to wait longer. There's no way a pivot is happening into a combination of positive economic growth like this, strong jobs market, and sky-high CPI increases.

There are maybe three factors that will cause a pivot:

1. Inflation falls to match the Fed funds rate

2. A rapid housing market decline starts to cause disruption throughout the rest of the economy.

3. The bond market starts choking.

Re: US economy returned to growth last quarter, expanding 2.6%

#13

Post by atomicnumber3 »

importantbrian wrote: post #6

This is the weirdest "recession" I can remember. Business leaders are constantly talking about how challenging the economic environment is and the need for layoffs etc. Meanwhile most of the underlying indicators are actually positive. Growth is strong, employment is strong. Anecdotally we're still having trouble finding good candidates. It's almost like there is a class of business leaders who are just trying to wis…

I too find that many mysteries become clearer when you look at them through the lens of the constant class warfare that is being waged. All too often in only one direction.

I'll be honest - I didn't use to think the rich/powerful thought like this. I thought it was just the tragedies of capitalism and the invisible hand needing more protection from market failures.

Then I worked for a billionaire's small company for five years right out of college.

Now I recommend "Wage Labor and Capital" to anyone who I think will be able to manage it's low-two-digit number of pages.

Re: US economy returned to growth last quarter, expanding 2.6%

#14

Post by datadata »

SantalBlush wrote: post #3

The EU has a similar committee to the NBER, which identifies EU business cycles. They also do not use the colloquial "2 quarters of decline in GDP" definition, though at least 2 quarters of decline is often seen in those recessions that they do identify. [0] >Most of the recessions identified by the Committee’s procedures consist of two or more quarters of declining real GDP, but declining real GDP is not the only in…

The issue is that the definition of a recession is vague, subjective, and as a term has become so politically important. If the definition was objective, verifiable, etc, then there wouldn't be room for the idea of political manipulation. I wish that society would not place such high value on terms that are so murky. It encourages discourse where the truth is not important.

Re: US economy returned to growth last quarter, expanding 2.6%

#16

Post by bushbaba »

importantbrian wrote: post #6

This is the weirdest "recession" I can remember. Business leaders are constantly talking about how challenging the economic environment is and the need for layoffs etc. Meanwhile most of the underlying indicators are actually positive. Growth is strong, employment is strong. Anecdotally we're still having trouble finding good candidates. It's almost like there is a class of business leaders who are just trying to wis…

Inflation means GDP can grow, with expenses growing faster.

Re: US economy returned to growth last quarter, expanding 2.6%

#17

Post by golergka »

importantbrian wrote: post #6

This is the weirdest "recession" I can remember. Business leaders are constantly talking about how challenging the economic environment is and the need for layoffs etc. Meanwhile most of the underlying indicators are actually positive. Growth is strong, employment is strong. Anecdotally we're still having trouble finding good candidates. It's almost like there is a class of business leaders who are just trying to wis…

We just had gone through an unprecedented global pandemic, there's a war in Europe that might become a world or nuclear war, and there's been unprecedented floods and draughts in many key regions of the world. I mean, it's good that they turned out to be wrong, but I won't blame them for expecting a recession in 2022.

Re: US economy returned to growth last quarter, expanding 2.6%

#19

Post by cliftonk »

importantbrian wrote: post #6

This is the weirdest "recession" I can remember. Business leaders are constantly talking about how challenging the economic environment is and the need for layoffs etc. Meanwhile most of the underlying indicators are actually positive. Growth is strong, employment is strong. Anecdotally we're still having trouble finding good candidates. It's almost like there is a class of business leaders who are just trying to wis…

When I hear it from business leaders, there are three logical reasons 1) exposure to the housing market 2) poor performance by the company (its the economy's fault!) or 3) an excuse to trim fat from a high-margin company that's aware of how bloated it is.

Re: US economy returned to growth last quarter, expanding 2.6%

#20

Post by yodsanklai »

jvanderbot wrote: post #5
alexb_ wrote: post #2

>Housing investment, though, plunged at a 26% annual pace, hammered by surging mortgage rates as the Federal Reserve aggressively raises borrowing costs to combat chronic inflation. It was the sixth straight quarterly drop in residential investment. Thank christ. Please bring on a housing crash ASAP.

We took a hard look at the economy before buying our house. Ultimately, we bought when interest rates were high, but prices had not yet come down. There's no crystal ball, but it sure looks like our investment will go down in value in the next few years, perhaps precipitously. I think of it this way: We bought the house we want for the price we can afford, and will happily enjoy it for two decades without price infla…

I've been waiting for the real estate market to crash for 20 years... On the other, my savings are worth less and less.
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