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UN says “No credible pathway” and “woefully inadequate” to stop global 1.5C

bbc.co.uk

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Re: UN says “No credible pathway” and “woefully inadequate” to stop global 1.5C

#31

Post by mistrial9 »

makerofspoons wrote: post #2

An assessment of climate tipping points that are likely to be triggered at 1.5C degrees of warming: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abn7950 The main threats would be near-term coral reef die-offs and ice sheet collapses.

reading reports for the last years, surprising to me was to find out the huge changes in sea level in fairly short time spans. Not "geological time" like some distant multi-hundred thousand year units, but instead more like sixty thousand years ago.. that is not so many human generations..

secondly, overall, the profound beauty of living ecosystems will be reduced brutally in the coming age. Monotonous and harsh regions will replace large areas, with ecosystem die-offs -- maybe slightly analogous to coral reef death.

It has been two solid decades of science reports for me, probably many others. Certainly some appreciation is called for, for the hard work of a few boomer scientists who have seen this unfold, and are now basically facing "geezerhood" with the toothless and feeble reality of that, while the Earth systems continue to degenerate at such a pace.

Re: UN says “No credible pathway” and “woefully inadequate” to stop global 1.5C

#32

Post by ntp85 »

jamescostian wrote: post #23
rob74 wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hm, then I wonder why rich nations have much higher per capita CO2 emissions than poor nations ( https://www.unep.org/explore-topics/climate-action/what-we-d... )?

You're not replying to a comment saying "poor people are the biggest contributors of CO2 emissions", you're replying to a comment saying "driving people into poverty is the biggest contributor of CO2" So the thing to look at isn't poor people's emissions, it's rich people's emissions, given that (relatively speaking, bc increasing money supply just decreases its worth) the richer rich people are, the more poor people…

The parent comment was about a knee-capped economy which would also affect the rich, wouldn't it?

Re: UN says “No credible pathway” and “woefully inadequate” to stop global 1.5C

#33

Post by canadiantim »

pjc50 wrote: post #10
canadiantim wrote: post #6

Maybe then we should consider not kneecapping our economy and driving people into poverty? The worst thing for the environment is poverty. I'm convinced most of the measures put in place to fight climate change have been a net negative to the environment, when you consider how much they are impoverishing people and thus driving more people to disregard environmental concerns for survival.

This argument might be valid in Brazil but definitely isn't in Canada.

Canada is tripling its carbon tax meanwhile residents e.g. in Newfoundland are suffering extremely under the cost of fuel prices for heating their home, so much so that even liberal mps are voting to exempt home heating from the tripling of the carbon tax. So this argument definitely still valid in Canada, though I do agree that it is more valid is more developing countries.

Re: UN says “No credible pathway” and “woefully inadequate” to stop global 1.5C

#36

Post by ThalesX »

Ninjak8051 wrote: post #20

Such pathways require global cooperation and will fail unless all major nations are on board. In particular, Russia is making no effort, and has no incentive or motivation to make any effort due to their vast tundra landscape. Step 1 is to get Russia on board by some means, without Russia any of these goals are senseless.

> without Russia any of these goals are senseless

This is an absurd take... Russia emits 4.65% of world output and has been decreasing last year the most out of the top 10 [0]. Could you base your arguments? I'd like to understand where this is coming from.

[0] https://www.worldometers.info/co2-emissions/co2-emissions-by...

Re: UN says “No credible pathway” and “woefully inadequate” to stop global 1.5C

#37

Post by Zigurd »

Moissanite wrote: post #19

Fighting climate change is, and probably always has been, a losing battle. The upside is that one of the remedies to the problems caused by climate upheaval is greater energy independence - which naturally steers us towards renewables. So, we might eventually end up with a net zero carbon economy anyway - but it'll be because of a desire for local stability, rather than to help save poor people in the developing worl…

The fact it is a "losing battle" for the next centuries has consequences. But not all of those consequences is despairing. Even if geoengineering is the only possible, yet dangerous and uncertain, way to make a dent in our CO2 "credit card debt" we still need aggressive investment in CO2 reduction. Continuing to bear down on the causes of anthropogenic climate change is the most effective way to reduce risk from geoengineering.

Re: UN says “No credible pathway” and “woefully inadequate” to stop global 1.5C

#38

Post by taylodl »

Ninjak8051 wrote: post #20

Such pathways require global cooperation and will fail unless all major nations are on board. In particular, Russia is making no effort, and has no incentive or motivation to make any effort due to their vast tundra landscape. Step 1 is to get Russia on board by some means, without Russia any of these goals are senseless.

If your solution involves Russia getting on board then you've already failed. Russia is actually encouraging climate change because it opens up more shipping in the arctic circle. This is to illustrate that in the short term climate change leads to winners and losers. In the long term we probably all lose, but we're not known for our long term thinking.

Re: UN says “No credible pathway” and “woefully inadequate” to stop global 1.5C

#39

Post by [deleted] »

ThalesX wrote: post #36
Ninjak8051 wrote: post #20

Such pathways require global cooperation and will fail unless all major nations are on board. In particular, Russia is making no effort, and has no incentive or motivation to make any effort due to their vast tundra landscape. Step 1 is to get Russia on board by some means, without Russia any of these goals are senseless.

> without Russia any of these goals are senseless This is an absurd take... Russia emits 4.65% of world output and has been decreasing last year the most out of the top 10 [0]. Could you base your arguments? I'd like to understand where this is coming from. [0] https://www.worldometers.info/co2-emissions/co2-emissions-by...

[deleted]

Re: UN says “No credible pathway” and “woefully inadequate” to stop global 1.5C

#40

Post by loup-vaillant »

BiteCode_dev wrote: post #9

Not a surprise, since co2 is an oxide, and therefore very stable in the athmosphere. It would take a huge amount of energy to remove it, and we don't even stop putting it in there. Janvici had a nice way to put it: the 1.5C are already signed for, which means we won't ever see the climate of today again in the next 5000 years.

I believe you meant Jancovici? https://jancovici.com/en/
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