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U.S. mortgage interest rates jump to 7.16%, highest since 2001

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Re: U.S. mortgage interest rates jump to 7.16%, highest since 2001

#261

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They would have to consist of a huge fraction of the market in order to do price fixing, but the highest percentage of purchases I have ever seen referenced is about 10% of purchases in a time period, which doesn't get anywhere close to having a significant number of the housing stock.

How huge, do you think? I imagine that in actuality 10% would be enough to move the market, especially if other players do the same.

10% of a few quarters of purchases is still a tiny tiny tiny fraction of the market, and not enough to coordinate pricing.

I think a far bigger concern is shortages of housing as individual homeowners and landlords act as a group to suppress local supply of housing. Local city councils tend to be controlled by such real estate interests. Corporate purchasers can piggy-back on that sort of regulatory capture without expending a single dime.

Re: U.S. mortgage interest rates jump to 7.16%, highest since 2001

#262
post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the US at least, we really should simplify, ease, and mandate 401k loans/withdrawal options for first-time homebuying. Doesn't help if rent eats all your paycheck, but if people are able to save they should be rewarded for doing so, and allowed to use that for a first home purchase. https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/081815/can-i-take-m...

I'm not sure I understand. It's quite easy to take money out of your 401k without penalty for a first time home buyer. How could it be easier than just requesting the money?

Loans are subject to plan administrators allowing it, and withdrawals are subject to taxes and penalties, unless one qualifies for a hardship exception which is nebulously defined and at IRS discretion for home purchases, no?

Re: U.S. mortgage interest rates jump to 7.16%, highest since 2001

#263
post #177
post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you just saying things or have you actually looked? Average home price in 1965 was $21k. Average home price in 2020 was $514k. Long term after every drop the prices have surpassed ATH. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ASPUS

Average house built today is 2,560 square feet[1]. In 1950, it was 980 square feet. plumbing/electrical/insulation are all different. Many would not enjoy living in a 1950 house, and a typical 1950 house would not sell for the price of an average house in 2020 [1] https://www.nahb.org/blog/2022/03/new-single-family-home-siz...

Homes built in the 1950s don't sell for discounts in my town. They might have added some attic insulation for a few thousand dollars, but the walls, plumbing and electrical is probably original. Some of our priciest neighborhoods are homes from the 50s and 60s.

Re: U.S. mortgage interest rates jump to 7.16%, highest since 2001

#264
post #122

Financial Ignoramus here - looking back - were ultra low rates a mistake? It seems insane that this number has grown so much since even last year. Would slowly growing them over a longer period have been better than these huge jumps? It seems wrong that I refinanced a 500k mortgage last year and I would be paying ~35% less per month than someone who did the same thing today.

I'm getting increasingly agitated by this claim that rates were irresponsibly low over the prior decade. It's honestly shocking to me that so many people who should know better are even making this claim because I feel it's misleading people like yourself to believe there is some responsible level for interest rates. The truth is were rates not "low" the US would have probably have entered a period of either extremel…

> a period of either extremely slow growth

Oh no, slightly less out of control consumerism! Slightly less carbon emission! Horrors!

> or out-right deflation

You mean the lower classes would have to pay less for their basic necessities? They might be able to afford housing? God that sounds like a nightmare.

Re: U.S. mortgage interest rates jump to 7.16%, highest since 2001

#265
post #127

Great news - affordable housing is around the corner! This will also deep-six people speculating on real estate or buying homes to AirBnB them (won't be profitable). All good news.

If house prices drop because of interest rates affordability remains constant. They only become "more affordable" if you have money to buy without a mortgage. So if you're saying they're more affordable to the rich, sure. But I assume you mean the average home buyer.

> So if you're saying they're more affordable to the rich, sure.

No, cash buyers are in an even worse position right now. A traditional 60/40 portfolio is down substantially more right now than the average home price. Cash buyers don't sit on actual cash, they sell something in their portfolio prior to closing.

Re: U.S. mortgage interest rates jump to 7.16%, highest since 2001

#266

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you buy a $225,000 house at 7%, you pay $45,000 down and $1,200/month. If things stay like that and you move after five years, you'll have about $169,500 left on your mortgage and thus get about $55,500 back out, $10,500 more than your down payment. If you buy a $410,000 house at 2%, you pay $82,000 down and $1,200/month. If things stay like that and you move after five years, you'll have about $286,000 left on yo…

You would have to account for the difference in down payment and opportunity cost of investing the $37k difference in down payments for the same period. So in the 7% scenario, you have $37k + investment return + $10.5k. In the 2% scenario, you have $42k.

I guess that's true. Assuming you yourself also get 7% interest, that would be another $15,000 you'd get, making you only lose $16,500 more.

Re: U.S. mortgage interest rates jump to 7.16%, highest since 2001

#267
post #262

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not sure I understand. It's quite easy to take money out of your 401k without penalty for a first time home buyer. How could it be easier than just requesting the money?

Loans are subject to plan administrators allowing it, and withdrawals are subject to taxes and penalties, unless one qualifies for a hardship exception which is nebulously defined and at IRS discretion for home purchases, no?

Withdrawals are subject to taxes which is fair because you haven't paid taxes on it yet. While there may be some wiggle room for 401k administrators or the IRS, generally if you don't have other resources for a down payment on a house then you won't see any penalties for the withdrawal. The 401k loan will depend on your plan, but the terms are defined by your general plan, not something that the administrator will deny because you have poor credit.

That said, both of those generally sound like poor choices, but if you truly need it they are options(if your company allows loans). Saving for retirement is really meant to help you in retirement.

Re: U.S. mortgage interest rates jump to 7.16%, highest since 2001

#268
post #177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Average house built today is 2,560 square feet[1]. In 1950, it was 980 square feet. plumbing/electrical/insulation are all different. Many would not enjoy living in a 1950 house, and a typical 1950 house would not sell for the price of an average house in 2020 [1] https://www.nahb.org/blog/2022/03/new-single-family-home-siz...

Homes built in the 1950s don't sell for discounts in my town. They might have added some attic insulation for a few thousand dollars, but the walls, plumbing and electrical is probably original. Some of our priciest neighborhoods are homes from the 50s and 60s.

In your area, they don't use square footage as an important factor in determining the price of a house?

Re: U.S. mortgage interest rates jump to 7.16%, highest since 2001

#269
post #185
post #177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Average house built today is 2,560 square feet[1]. In 1950, it was 980 square feet. plumbing/electrical/insulation are all different. Many would not enjoy living in a 1950 house, and a typical 1950 house would not sell for the price of an average house in 2020 [1] https://www.nahb.org/blog/2022/03/new-single-family-home-siz...

Not sure what point you are trying to drive across. The graph I posted shows a macro trend. My home was built in 1970s. I believe the initial price was around $40k. Current worth is $450k. It is hard to take all the different things into account.

What I'm trying to do is provide some context. Start here:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPNHSUS

So from 1965 to latest, we went from 21K to 450K. Where is that coming from?

1. inflation

2. size of house

3. everything else - interest rate changes, increased value of land, etc.

For 1, let's deflate: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPNHSUS

We get a multiple of 2.4. That is, $1 invested in 1965 gives $2.40 in 1965 dollars back, or a real gain of 140% over that 57 year holding period.

But the average size of a new home went from 1200 to 2500 square feet, so it doubled. Thus on a price per square foot basis, the real gain is about 20% over that 57 year hold.

So that is what "everything else" explains - a 20% gain over 57 years, which is good as an inflation hedge, but once you take into account that you should spend about 1% of the value of the house each year for maintenance, and then maybe throw in some property taxes, that bucket of #3 is basically zero gain and is probably a bit negative.

So houses, on the national level, have been a good inflation hedge -- which is important, but that's about all they've been in this period from 1965 to 2022.

Of course things very greatly by area. Buying a ton of almond orchards in silicon valley in 1965 would be very fortuitous. Buying an apartment complex in Detroit, not so much. If you want anecdotes, my parents bought a house for $80,000 in 1983 - Phoenix metro - and sold it for $250K in 2019. That's basically just inflation, and they put a lot of work into the house - remodeled kitchen, put in pool, changed the wiring, put in copper plumbing, new light fixtures, replaced carpet with tile in the living room, replaced wood fence with brick fence in the backyard, added new hardwood floors, replaced roof, double pane windows, paint, etc. Don't ask what the interest rate was back then, they needed to get some seller financing as the mortgage rates were obscene.

Re: U.S. mortgage interest rates jump to 7.16%, highest since 2001

#270
post #262

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Loans are subject to plan administrators allowing it, and withdrawals are subject to taxes and penalties, unless one qualifies for a hardship exception which is nebulously defined and at IRS discretion for home purchases, no?

Withdrawals are subject to taxes which is fair because you haven't paid taxes on it yet. While there may be some wiggle room for 401k administrators or the IRS, generally if you don't have other resources for a down payment on a house then you won't see any penalties for the withdrawal. The 401k loan will depend on your plan, but the terms are defined by your general plan, not something that the administrator will de…

We allow people to save for college in tax advantaged plans. Why not houses? And if so, why not use a vehicle that already exists (401k/IRA) instead of creating a whole new one?

The conventional wisdom that borrowing from your 401k to buy a house is always a poor move seems... overly reductive and a bit patronizing.

If someone isn't able to fund their 401k and save for a down payment, who am I to tell them that using a tax advantaged vehicle is a bad way to become a homeowner?

Mortgage rates, local rental prices, local home prices and inventory, living situation and likelihood of moving, tax situation, etc. all impact, and I don't know anyone's situation.

Besides, who wants all the money in the world if you have to spend most of your life living in a place you hate?

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